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Stormlover74

February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Slop to all rain setup once again, only this time the antecedent air mass isn’t as cold. It is not favorable for this storm either

You're without a doubt the anti-Snow88, the truth is somewhere in the middle.

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19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You're without a doubt the anti-Snow88, the truth is somewhere in the middle.

Snow88 almost never becomes belligerent.

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February 2019 is on track to be warmer than normal in the New York City area. Through the first 15 days, February 2019 has a mean temperature of 37.5° in New York City. Since 1869, 92% of cases where February had a mean temperature of 37.0° or above through February 15 wound up warmer than normal. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest computer guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will finish warmer than normal and an implied 60% probability that the City will finish 1° or more warmer than normal.

Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.30°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.40°C for the week centered around February 6. For the past five weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C.

Such ENSO conditions will likely persist through February with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. Under such a scenario, the probability of a significant snowfall (6" or more) will be well below climatology for the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The SOI was -13.59 today. That's the fifth consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for five consecutive days was September 21-25, 2018.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.894. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.194. Should the AO average +1.160 or above for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average just above 0.000.

Based on historic experience (1950-2018) when the AO reached +3.000 or above during the February 1-15 period, the AO will likely remain predominantly through most of the second half of February. The AO could head toward neutral or negative levels during the last week of the month.

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is again able to report MJO data. On February 14, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.420 (RMM). The amplitude had fallen from the February 13-adjusted figure of 1.728.

The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8, but a brief push back into Phase 7 based on historical data cannot be ruled out. As the MJO remains in or near Phase 8, the AO should begin to decline. However, on account of the abnormally strong polar vortex responsible for the current high AO+ readings, that process could be a slow one.

The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States.

There could be several opportunities for snowfall in the East in coming days. However, the probability of significant snowfall events (6" or more) is below climatology (but not zero) for the Middle Atlantic region. Central/Upstate New York across central and northern New England have a greater probability of seeing significant snow events.

Finally, the 12z ECWMF is showing the potential for a 6" or greater snowfall in a region that includes Atlantic City, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington during the February 20-21 period with lesser amounts north of that region. However, consistency in the guidance will be needed before one can have much confidence in a significant snowfall given the current neutral-warm ENSO conditions.

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11 hours ago, bluewave said:

ISP picked up 15.8 with the 950 mb benchmark blizzard. They were also in a prime location for the heaviest late season snows.

ISP 17-18

Dec....6.0

Jan.....22.0

Feb.....1.4

Mar.....31.9

Apr.......4.6

Which of the March storms did they have the most in? The 3/21 event? 31.9" is such an impressive total for that location in March, more than a full season's worth of snow in a month that borders on spring.

I had 6.0" in the 4/2 storm. That was a really nice event here. We just missed the following weekend on 4/9; airmass was still cold enough for snow yet storm threat faded.

It doesn't look like we're anywhere near done this winter with the Sunday night 1-2" event then the bigger storm Wednesday afternoon. We're due for a little luck.

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2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

From forecasts I've seen this morning,  looks like 1-3" Sunday night into Monday morning. 

They have it turning to rain now in Rockland (Upton)

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

They have it turning to rain now in Rockland (Upton)

Typical SWFE

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This is our first El Niño February with such a strong Southeast Ridge. Almost looks like a lingering influence from the La Niña last February. It’s odd events like this during the 2010’s that make seasonal forecasting such a challenge.

 

8476FE9A-05F8-4219-9AE4-238F130D0B16.png.eb519629ad91f97a615890a12fe5ebad.png

DF06EF62-8538-4656-A73E-D7F8D0BB963D.png.a9cf39b5a0e407e5c15c663f5dab16e8.png

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The always overamped RGEM at 40-54 not being too far north with the snow makes me feel the metro has a shot at this still as far as getting 2-3 inches.  Even the Euro which came way north still shows around 2 in NYC

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27 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The always overamped RGEM at 40-54 not being too far north with the snow makes me feel the metro has a shot at this still as far as getting 2-3 inches.  Even the Euro which came way north still shows around 2 in NYC

What about frozen or wet on the tail end?

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13 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

What about frozen or wet on the tail end?

Maybe N&W.  The NAM is way north.  Coast wouldn’t see anything if that verifies 

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43 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The always overamped RGEM at 40-54 not being too far north with the snow makes me feel the metro has a shot at this still as far as getting 2-3 inches.  Even the Euro which came way north still shows around 2 in NYC

For when?  Tomorrow night?  No shot.  It's north and mostly rain / white rain for NYC.  

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1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

For when?  Tomorrow night?  No shot.  It's north and mostly rain / white rain for NYC.  

It’s game over if the NAM is right.  The temps look easily cold enough if we get a track slightly further south.  I don’t think we get much above 36-38 for highs tomorrow 

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5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

For when?  Tomorrow night?  No shot.  It's north and mostly rain / white rain for NYC.  

It's a typical SWFE.

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s game over if the NAM is right.  The temps look easily cold enough if we get a track slightly further south.  I don’t think we get much above 36-38 for highs tomorrow 

According to the 12Z NAM it might be game over for snow, but not for sleet/ZR.  It's certainly warmer/wetter for the NYC Metro than 6Z or other models, but it still has 0.1" LE as sleet for EWR as per the precip type comparison below for EWR for the NCEP models, and 6Z had quite a bit of ZR.  

 

pcompare.zoom.png

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11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The RGEM literally splits the Metro. No accumulation maps yet but wouldn’t doubt its 4 inches Bronx/LGA and all rain JFK. 

What does it say for Nassau and Suffolk on LI?

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11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The RGEM literally splits the Metro. No accumulation maps yet but wouldn’t doubt its 4 inches Bronx/LGA and all rain JFK. 

1-3 for NYC and more in LI

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a pretty weak system without that much moisture.

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KLGA&model=nam&time=current&field=prec

I wouldn’t worry about nam it’s a good model but it hasn’t been that good this year. I’d look at euro today for a better understanding. Most of the precip falls at night so we can get a good sized 1-3 inches nyc wide 

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Just now, Snow88 said:

1-3 for NYC and more in LI

The gradient is purely latitude based so yeah places like Greenport or Orient could do really well on this potentially  

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Just now, bluewave said:

The NAM has been doing fine this year. The Euro has had a bit of a cold bias lately with too much snow.

Nam is an okay model. 

 

Rgem is kinda bad this year but it is showing a good amount of snow

56A2D00B-5700-4AB9-B28E-3423112B879D.png

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1 minute ago, New York Blizzard said:

Nam is an okay model. 

 

Rgem is kinda bad this year but it is showing a good amount of snow

56A2D00B-5700-4AB9-B28E-3423112B879D.png

That’s a really funky gradient as far as common storm tendencies go in this area.  Odds favor it sets up 20-30 miles further north or south than that.  Doesn’t mean it can’t happen just that it’s probably shifting one way or the other more often than not 

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Just now, bluewave said:

The models showing the lower amounts of snow have done best this year. This isn’t like the last few years when the highest snowfall model was usually correct.

Agreed but doesn’t mean it’s right. I’m thinking 1-3 inches of pure wet snow Monday morning. Nam is wrong in my opinion

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The models showing the lower amounts of snow have done best this year. This isn’t like the last few years when the highest snowfall model was usually correct.

This event isn’t a changeover event though.  Someone is gonna get a good 5-6 inches with this.  It may be Hartford or Boston or Danbury vs NYC but I do think this is gonna be the first solid snow event for many in CT/NY/MA/RI

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6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This event isn’t a changeover event though.  Someone is gonna get a good 5-6 inches with this.  It may be Hartford or Boston or Danbury vs NYC but I do think this is gonna be the first solid snow event for many in CT/NY/MA/RI

And these models don’t really ever factor in dynamic and evaporative cooling so I think even Staten Island would be snow in this case. The rgem shows the Bronx and north getting a good amount of snow but I think I would bring that rain snow line down another 20 miles south

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