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Stormlover74

February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

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1 minute ago, WIN said:

And that's what's been happening for the most part over the last 15 to 20 years, give or take. We've been very spoiled.

very spoiled indeed--my kids think snow days are an annual occurrence---multiples!

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1 hour ago, WIN said:

This winter reminds me of many during the 70s, 80s and into the 90s. Makes me feel young again, LOL.

Yup. Even the analog storms someone mentioned earlier were complete duds out my way, resulting in some slush then right over to rain. It ain't our year that's all. Wait til we get 3 or 4 in a row like this.

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

Yup. Even the analog storms someone mentioned earlier were complete duds out my way, resulting in some slush then right over to rain. It ain't our year that's all. Wait til we get 3 or 4 in a row like this.

Would love 3 or 4 in a row like this----even warmer

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9 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

its not over yet--as much as I share your desire for summer type weather, you just never know when things can change.  It wouldn't be the first time a "rogue" storm appeared if it happened

February still has 18 more days, anything can happen.

We were way overdue for a quiet snowfall season, this decade has been out of control. Our 1991-2020 snowfall averages will look radically different than previous 30 year periods even if it doesn’t snow again until 2021.

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Just now, Cfa said:

February still has 18 more days, anything can happen.

We were way overdue for a quiet snowfall season, this decade has been out of control. Our 1991-2020 snowfall averages will look radically different than previous 30 year periods even if it doesn’t snow again until 2021.

yes

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Just now, 495weatherguy said:

very spoiled indeed--my kids think snow days are an annual occurrence---multiples!

i started teaching in 1987 and did not have my first snow day until March 93. And had no snow days as a kid from 79-81. Snow days were rare things.

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Just now, 495weatherguy said:

 

Would love 3 or 4 in a row like this----even warmer

Well, we've talked about this pardner. You are living at the wrong latitude, but you knew that....those snowless winters were not really that warm. They were cold, dreary, and wet. 

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

i started teaching in 1987 and did not have my first snow day until March 93. And had no snow days as a kid from 79-81. Snow days were rare things.

Some of it was a timing thing on the island--the few big storms seemed to occur on weekends or school vacations, but the frequency of these "100 year" storms is amazing

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Well, we've talked about this pardner. You are living at the wrong latitude, but you knew that....those snowless winters were not really that warm. They were cold, dreary, and wet. 

I know--as I've gotten older my tolerance for cold weather has diminished.  I love the warm weather--shorts and bbq's

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5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Well, we've talked about this pardner. You are living at the wrong latitude, but you knew that....those snowless winters were not really that warm. They were cold, dreary, and wet. 

anyway, cold and dry is tolerable for now.  The forecasted temp lately seems to bust high, and the days are getting noticeably longer

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3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

anyway, cold and dry is tolerable for now.  The forecasted temp lately seems to bust high, and the days are getting noticeably longer

I like a few good snow storms but am not gonna lose sleep over it 

just wish we had longer mild spring weather instead of going right to humid heat

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

I like a few good snow storms but am not gonna lose sleep over it 

just wish we had longer mild spring weather instead of going right to humid heat

Agree--longer springs with longer summer--short harsh winter--1 month cold and snow.  Im ok with that

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I was born at the beginning of a six year snow drought in 1949...The periods of 1969-70 to 1976-77 (Eight Years) had no major storms...the best chances changed to rain or were to far south and east of us...biggest storm in this period was 7.8" in Feb. 1975...only eleven 4" storms in that period...from the 1983-84 season to the 1991-92 season ( nine years ) had no major storms...biggest storm in this period was 8.9" in Feb. 1991...it was a bullseye storm...nineteen 4" storm in that period...2013-14 and 2015-16 had six each for comparison...edit...1929-30 to 1931-32 had no storms 4" or more...

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Nam has a little snow for Sunday night and then snow/sleet to a little rain with the bigger storm for mid week with a few inches of " frozen precip " for the coast with a little more inland.

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6 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I was born at the beginning of a six year snow drought in 1949...The periods of 1969-70 to 1976-77 (Eight Years) had no major storms...the best chances changed to rain or were to far south and east of us...biggest storm in this period was 7.8" in Feb. 1975...only eleven 4" storms in that period...from the 1983-84 season to the 1991-92 season ( nine years ) had no major storms...biggest storm in this period was 8.9" in Feb. 1991...it was a bullseye storm...nineteen 4" storm in that period...2013-14 and 2015-16 had six each for comparison...edit...1929-30 to 1931-32 had no storms 4" or more...

Yeah Unc there were some lean years in there, but the great fishing kept me occupied! Now that's gone. I don't remember the Feb 91 event, it must have been on a weekend or underperformed out . my way, as I don't recall any thing of note before the march 92 surprise events.

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13 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Agree--longer springs with longer summer--short harsh winter--1 month cold and snow.  Im ok with that

I don't mind a short summer as I hate the heat. I have medical reasons and have to wear long sleeves and pants as well as a hat all summer so I tend to stay inside unless I'm fishing, which summer is not the best time for anyway ( fall is best ). I always sweat profusely, so with our humid summers, forget it.

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3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Yeah Unc there were some lean years in there, but the great fishing kept me occupied! Now that's gone. I don't remember the Feb 91 event, it must have been on a weekend or underperformed out . my way, as I don't recall any thing of note before the march 92 surprise events.

Jan 87 had a good one. At least in most of central and north Jersey.

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

I don't mind a short summer as I hate the heat. I have medical reasons and have to wear long sleeves and pants as well as a hat all summer so I tend to stay inside unless I'm fishing, which summer is not the best time for anyway ( fall is best ). I always sweat profusely, so with our humid summers, forget it.

Sorry to hear--the last few summers haven't been too bad if I remember correctly--humidity hasn't been too harsh

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Definitely one of those storms where one needs to look at multiple graphics to get the full story.  For the 12Z NAM, the Pivotal map shows the snow through Tuesday early morning (more to the S of 195/276 due to the Monday system) and then the snow changes to sleet for most of CNJ/NNJ until early afternoon (where soundings from Trenton to NYC looks like sleet, changing to rain somewhere around 1-2 pm Tues), where one can estimate the amount of sleet by subtracting the Pivotal snow from the Tidbits "snow" (which is snow + sleet, all at a 10:1 ratio).   

Kind of tedious, but no single map can really work.  This can work for the NAM, GFS and FV3; pretty sure the CMC/Euro/UK maps are just snow, but not 100% sure on that and if that's right not sure if they show sleet some other way or if one has to count precip under sleet soundings manually - I'm sure there are better ways to do this - might be time to start paying for this kind of info, lol.  Might not be worth this effort yet, 3 days out, since much will likely change, but it helps me, at least.  

Isn't it about time for a storm thread?  In my head when the NAM covers just about the whole storm, that's time...

namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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Latest MJO Plots since some people think winter is over

ndok5j.gif

2eqe7p0.gif

There is more than the MJO for a good pattern but we haven't seen phase 8-1 in over a month.

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13 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Definitely one of those storms where one needs to look at multiple graphics to get the full story.  For the 12Z NAM, the Pivotal map shows the snow through Tuesday early morning (more to the S of 195/276 due to the Monday system) and then the snow changes to sleet for most of CNJ/NNJ until early afternoon (where soundings from Trenton to NYC looks like sleet, changing to rain somewhere around 1-2 pm Tues), where one can estimate the amount of sleet by subtracting the Pivotal snow from the Tidbits "snow" (which is snow + sleet, all at a 10:1 ratio).   

Kind of tedious, but no single map can really work.  This can work for the NAM, GFS and FV3; pretty sure the CMC/Euro/UK maps are just snow, but not 100% sure on that and if that's right not sure if they show sleet some other way or if one has to count precip under sleet soundings manually - I'm sure there are better ways to do this - might be time to start paying for this kind of info, lol.  Might not be worth this effort yet, 3 days out, since much will likely change, but it helps me, at least.  

Isn't it about time for a storm thread?  In my head when the NAM covers just about the whole storm, that's time...

namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

Couldn’t agree more. Allot of personal conversations and talk of a snowless winter and where’s summer?

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22 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Sorry to hear--the last few summers haven't been too bad if I remember correctly--humidity hasn't been too harsh

Last summer was one of the most humid ever, if not the most humid. We had multiple days with high 70s dews 

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Couldn’t agree more. Allot of personal conversations and talk of a snowless winter and where’s summer?

I actually like sleet almost as much as snow, since, well, it's frozen, lol.  So I like diving in and trying to figure out how much sleet.  Would be nice to have free source maps that showed, better, both snow and sleet.  And the impact of 3" of snow then 2" of sleet (6-7" of snow equiv) is similar to the impact of 9-10" of snow, at least for shoveling, plowing, driving (except for visibility) and people will underestimate the impact if they only look at "just snow" maps.  

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Last summer was one of the most humid ever, if not the most humid. We had multiple days with high 70s dews 

I don't live near the water--I don't recall humidity being such an issue.  I could be wrong though

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58 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

i started teaching in 1987 and did not have my first snow day until March 93. And had no snow days as a kid from 79-81. Snow days were rare things.

There were at least a couple of small storms through my growing up on LI years that we got snow days from school at least once a year most years. If it wasn't for snow it was for ice.

26 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Sorry to hear--the last few summers haven't been too bad if I remember correctly--humidity hasn't been too harsh

Nah last summer was brutally humid and uncomfortable a lot of the time.

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Re Snow days. The world has changed a lot in the last 20 years.

 

Things that were acceptable in the 80s and 90s and not acceptable now. NYC never closed schools. Never. In 1994 we had several huge snowstorms where schools were open.

Thank liability; thank social media. Thank a softer world. That is why you have more snow days now.

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1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

Nah last summer was brutally humid and uncomfortable a lot of the time.

Yeah, it was unrelenting. Made worse by the fact that the average homeowner in the tri-state area spent 73% of the summer patching roofs and carting off fallen trees.

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Just now, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, it was unrelenting. Made worse by the fact that the average homeowner in the tri-state area spent 73% of the summer patching roofs and carting off fallen trees.

I got lucky with the trees last year, it's this winter that it became a problem.

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11 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, it was unrelenting. Made worse by the fact that the average homeowner in the tri-state area spent 73% of the summer patching roofs and carting off fallen trees.

Yeah, hot and humid summers stretching into September are the new norm. Just like December acting more like a late fall month. March has been the toss up. Some years like a late winter and others an early spring.

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18 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Last summer was one of the most humid ever, if not the most humid. We had multiple days with high 70s dews 

Used to be a dew point of over 70 was rare. Now they are frequent.

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