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Stormlover74

February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

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36 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Looks like another interior storm, story of the winter, the coast usually flips pretty quick to rain in these scenarios where the upper levels torch fast so I'm skeptical of a sleet storm still time for changes but right now the models are warming up the upper levels much faster than previous runs.  

No surprise there-LR is ugly too with a SE ridge and the core of the cold over the interior west.    Same ol pattern

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15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

EPS continues the RNA right through the last week of this month. It would appear the CanSIPS wasn’t so crazy after all with its prediction for February a couple of weeks ago

Yeah, the new Euro monthly for February holds onto the -PNA pattern also. You can also see the EPS, GEFS, and CMC doing the same. Odd combination this winter of La Niña and El Niño influences. We usually only see such a strong February -PNA pattern with cold neutral or La Nina’s. 

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

No surprise there-LR is ugly too with a SE ridge and the core of the cold over the interior west.    Same ol pattern

One storm at a time

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8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Stormvista has 4-6 inches areawide on the 6z euro but most of that is sleet /ice. 

6z NAM is sleet and then to rain-the fact that we're already seeing no front end snow is not a good-this season- models have warmed as we get closer to the event all winter...

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This is turning out to be a classic storm with snow to ice/sleet and rain for the coast with more snow inland.

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11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

6z NAM is sleet and then to rain-the fact that we're already seeing no front end snow is not a good-this season- models have warmed as we get closer to the event all winter...

Models aren't good with warming and also low level cold. It should be interesting to see how it plays out.

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I keep holding out hope that the pattern or that outcomes will be different but what a painful winter this has been for snow lovers. Tuesday still has time to change but if we don't see some dramatic changes and agreement real soon on the models Tuesday looks to be another ho hum. I mean who wants MORE rain especially in the heart of winter ?

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2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I keep holding out hope that the pattern or that outcomes will be different but what a painful winter this has been for snow lovers. Tuesday still has time to change but if we don't see some dramatic changes and agreement real soon on the models Tuesday looks to be another ho hum. I mean who wants MORE rain especially in the heart of winter ?

This may be the first time in history that Long Island sees its heaviest snowfall rates in a snow squall by Mid-February with the whiteout.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This may be the first time in history that Long Island sees its heaviest snowfall rates in a snow squall by Mid-February with the whiteout.

Do you know what those rates were?   At LGA, JFK, KFRG?

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5 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Do you know what those rates were?   At LGA, JFK, KFRG?

The visibility here in SW Suffolk for about 3 minutes rivaled the strongest blizzard conditions that I ever saw. It was a true whiteout. That is the highlight of this winter so far for me.

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50 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No surprise there-LR is ugly too with a SE ridge and the core of the cold over the interior west.    Same ol pattern

That's alright they really need the water. The deep snowpack they've got out there this winter means we will be able to afford to eat fresh fruits and veggies this year.

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This winter reminds me of many during the 70s, 80s and into the 90s. Makes me feel young again, LOL.

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6 minutes ago, WIN said:

This winter reminds me of many during the 70s, 80s and into the 90s. Makes me feel young again, LOL.

The only 80’s winter with just around an inch by 2-9 from 12-01 was 79-80.

1980-02-09 1.6 0
1981-02-09 9.0 0
1982-02-09 12.1 0
1983-02-09 12.5 0
1984-02-09 12.2 0
1985-02-09 19.2 0
1986-02-09 11.0 0
1987-02-09 14.7 0
1988-02-09 17.6 0
1989-02-09 9.7 0
1990-02-09 9.3

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only 80’s winter with just around an inch by 2-9 from 12-01 was 79-80.

1980-02-09 1.6 0
1981-02-09 9.0 0
1982-02-09 12.1 0
1983-02-09 12.5 0
1984-02-09 12.2 0
1985-02-09 19.2 0
1986-02-09 11.0 0
1987-02-09 14.7 0
1988-02-09 17.6 0
1989-02-09 9.7 0
1990-02-09 9.3

My comments were anecdotal more than statistical. Just the feel this winter's had so far.

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7 minutes ago, WIN said:

My comments were anecdotal more than statistical. Just the feel this winter's had so far.

I understand. The only snowstorms during the 80’s that stood out for me were April 82, Feb 83, and Jan 87. The 80’s also produced a bunch of winters in the 20’s range for snowfall. These days, the snowfall is almost always over 30 or under 20. Seems like we lost the old midrange winters which were more frequent back then.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

6z NAM is sleet and then to rain-the fact that we're already seeing no front end snow is not a good-this season- models have warmed as we get closer to the event all winter...

You have a primary low cutting into the lakes, the mid-levels and upper-levels get absolutely torched on Tuesday. Very possible it starts as sleet then goes right to rain

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28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only 80’s winter with just around an inch by 2-9 from 12-01 was 79-80.

1980-02-09 1.6 0
1981-02-09 9.0 0
1982-02-09 12.1 0
1983-02-09 12.5 0
1984-02-09 12.2 0
1985-02-09 19.2 0
1986-02-09 11.0 0
1987-02-09 14.7 0
1988-02-09 17.6 0
1989-02-09 9.7 0
1990-02-09 9.3

I also remember that it was difficult to retain snowpack

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7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You have a primary low cutting into the lakes, the mid-levels and upper-levels get absolutely torched on Tuesday. Very possible it starts as sleet then goes right to rain

well inland will be the place to be.   Story of the winter and a return to an 80's style winter where the coast had a quick flip to liquid....

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10 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I also remember that it was difficult to retain snowpack

Yeah, many of  the storms were nickel and dime 1-3 or 2-4 events.

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For me, this is the least snowiest met winter I’ve experienced.

Only 0.6” here, I’ve no conscious memory of 97-98 but even that winter had 0.7” by now at JFK (I’m from Jamaica, Queens).

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4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

any storm greater than 4 inches was noteworthy

There were only a handful of storms during the 80’s that didn’t change to rain in Long Beach. The standard NOAA WX Radio forecast was a brief period of snow near the coast before changing to rain.

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1 minute ago, Cfa said:

For me, this is the least snowiest met winter I’ve experienced.

Only 0.6” here, I’ve no conscious memory of 97-98 but even that winter had 0.7” by now at JFK (I’m from Jamaica, Queens).

its not over yet--as much as I share your desire for summer type weather, you just never know when things can change.  It wouldn't be the first time a "rogue" storm appeared if it happened

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Just now, bluewave said:

There were only a handful of storms during the 80’s that didn’t change to rain in Long Beach. The standard NOAA WX Radio forecast was a brief period of snow near the coast before changing to rain. 

Hence the idea of how "difficult" it is to get snow on an island.  Used to hear that all the time.  A snowstorm needed lots of moving parts to come together at the right time

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6z para gfs shows several inches for the whole area of snow/sleet and ice .

It will all depend on the thump. The earlier the precip gets in the better since there will be cold air in place.

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9 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Hence the idea of how "difficult" it is to get snow on an island.  Used to hear that all the time.  A snowstorm needed lots of moving parts to come together at the right time

And that's what's been happening for the most part over the last 15 to 20 years, give or take. We've been very spoiled.

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