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February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread


Stormlover74
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The mixed El Niño and La Niña themes continue this winter. A very La Niña-like -PNA pattern during the first week of February. While the CPC composite is just a snapshot of the first week period, notice how many La Nina’s are in there. Hopefully, the weeklies are correct about improvements in the pattern as the month progresses.

 

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3 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I’m thinking we get 21 inches in February. Gfs 18z has a storm around that timeframe nothing crazy but the nor’easter is there

Well, there it is: This winter summed up perfectly in one post: A 240hr 18z GFS snowstorm that shows "nothing crazy."

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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new ensembles are ugly right into mid month

We will need to see the MJO forcing west of the Date Line fade out a bit to get some Improvement. The current lingering and lag with the MJO in phase 6 flipped the PNA negative. Need to weaken the -PNA as the month progresses to get the gradient to our south and see colder temperatures again.

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