RU848789 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 It's fantasy land at this point, but c'mon, someone has to post it. Pretty colors, lol... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Don’t know verification scores, but of all the models to show it though, I might trust this one the least. It’s a beautiful sight though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: The mjo of the gefs is insane. It's literally all the charts in phase 8 near mid month. Something is gotta give. Usually with that amplitude , the AO and PNA gets better. The GEFS is doing too much with it, it did that back in December/Jan too, which is why I don't buy that huge cutter. EPS has the right depiction and I expect the OP to correct the track over time. Para looks more accurate than anything. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The GEFS is doing too much with it, it did that back in December/Jan too, which is why I don't buy that huge cutter. EPS has the right depiction and I expect the OP to correct the track over time. Para looks more accurate than anything. this is over done too - hard to explain why both GFS models are so different 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: this is over done too - hard to explain why both GFS models are so different Why is it overdone what’s your scientific reasoning? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: if you can't figure it out I am not going to tell you Dude it’s weather it’s 100 % unpredictable. Gfs Para May be overdone but who’s to say it’s wrong, we don’t know that. We don’t know if the ukmet is wrong or jma or euro or any of these models. The truth is we don’t know and we won’t know for another few days at least so put down your know it all pipe. thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Dude it’s weather it’s 100 % unpredictable. Gfs Para May be overdone but who’s to say it’s wrong, we don’t know that. We don’t know if the ukmet is wrong or jma or euro or any of these models. The truth is we don’t know and we won’t know for another few days at least so put down your know it all pipe. thanks Wish we knew which damn model if any are right !!!! The FV3 would make up for a lot of what went wrong this winter = a boy can dream 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Wish we knew which damn model if any are right !!!! The FV3 would make up for a lot of what went wrong this winter = a boy can dream this is what we refer to as total model chaos which happens especially during pattern changes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 15 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Why is it overdone what’s your scientific reasoning? Because it's constantly been wrong. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 57 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Sure it can snow in late March and early April, but does that really do anything? Do you enjoy seeing snow for a few hours in spring? Honestly the reason people are throwing in the towel is because for most people merely having a snow storm isn’t enough. We want the snow to last. Enjoy real winter. Not 6 inches of snow fell overnight and it is gone by dinner time. Next week is the middle of February. Whether you want to believe it or not, the sun is heading towards the Tropic of Cancer. The sun will be higher and higher in the sky. We are now leaving our solar minimum for the year. Yes it can snow all the way to the beginning of May, but spring snow is never the same as January and early February true winter snow. Are you forgetting it’s stil early February? Some of our greatest storms of all time (including some of the coldest) have been centered around presidents week. I get it people are frustrated, non more so then me. But this towel throwing is getting old. If next week works out I’m really going to have to laugh. Even Upton is a believer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: Because it's constantly been wrong. That doesn't mean it will be wrong this time lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: Because it's constantly been wrong. The one snowstorm we had this year November 15th and it nailed it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Surprised none of the have mentioned the 12Z JMA... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Blind 7 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: The one snowstorm we had this year November 15th and it nailed it. Blind squirrel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Dan76 said: Blind Blind squirrel? Probably but let us enjoy our #weenieism! jma is a snowstorm too lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Surprised none of the have mentioned the 12Z JMA... Jma is weenish I know I'm a weenie and people think I chase everything but the Mjo is looking great with the high amplitudes. Usually with that, the PNA and AO should respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Are you forgetting it’s stil early February? Some of our greatest storms of all time (including some of the coldest) have been centered around presidents week. I get it people are frustrated, non more so then me. But this towel throwing is getting old. If next week works out I’m really going to have to laugh. Even Upton is a believer LOL throwing in the towel is getting old? C'mon brother, ya'll know what has been getting old around these here parts... do I gotta spell it out for ya pardner? We all need a good storm here, no one will be laughing if one happens, trust me. They'll be crying tears of joy ( not me though, gotta draw the line somewhere ). It's true that Feb can deliver big snows, but in my experience, it's usually on the heels of some other events in Dec and Jan ( but not always, 2006 being an example ). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: It's a dream scenario The blizzard of 2006 started off with the JMA showing a huge blizzard in the beginning of February with the title "FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY". 26.9 inches later, I was quite entertained! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Jma is weenish I know I'm a weenie and people think I chase everything but the Mjo is looking great with the high amplitudes. Usually with that, the PNA and AO should respond. you were one of the few to call that november storm. nothing wrong with being a ween as long as expectations are realistic. there are conflicting signals next week, but there is still plenty of evidence that the pattern has changed enough for us to be in the game. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, TriPol said: The blizzard of 2006 started off with the JMA showing a huge blizzard in the beginning of February with the title "FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY". 26.9 inches later, I was quite entertained! It was the first to call the 96 blizzard as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, tomcatct said: It was the first to call the 96 blizzard as well... Really? I wasn’t around for that storm I moved to New York City from Luxembourg back in June 1997. I missed the April fools day blizzard too apparently! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, TriPol said: The blizzard of 2006 started off with the JMA showing a huge blizzard in the beginning of February with the title "FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY". 26.9 inches later, I was quite entertained! Yeah and it had been a rather warm and uneventful winter too, I think it hit 72 in Jan..?, I was at the Philly zoo and people were wearing shorts IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 I wonder what the gfs and euro were showing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Para has a widespread blizzard here with 2-3 feet of snow from Virginia to Boston! 2-3 feet? please stop. it doesn't show that and it's most likely wrong. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, David-LI said: 2-3 feet? please stop. it doesn't show that and it's most likely wrong. I meant to put 1-3 feet. Does it matter? It shows a blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 54 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Are you forgetting it’s stil early February? Some of our greatest storms of all time (including some of the coldest) have been centered around presidents week. I get it people are frustrated, non more so then me. But this towel throwing is getting old. If next week works out I’m really going to have to laugh. Even Upton is a believer I'm not disagreeing about next week. If we can get some good snow in here then good. What I am pointing out is people saying well what about last year? I personally think late March and April snow is rubbing it in our faces of what could have been. That being said, October 31st, 2011, was still the craziest snowstorm I have ever lived through. And I don't think people are throwing in the towel yet on this season, but if next week does not pan out, then yes that ledge will be full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Are you forgetting it’s stil early February? Some of our greatest storms of all time (including some of the coldest) have been centered around presidents week. I get it people are frustrated, non more so then me. But this towel throwing is getting old. If next week works out I’m really going to have to laugh. Even Upton is a believer LBS help a brother out what is Upton saying ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: this is what we refer to as total model chaos which happens especially during pattern changes NEG I hear you but this has been going on since at least November the models were chaos leading up to that surprise storm and even before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: LBS help a brother out what is Upton saying ? Read the AFD. They think snow is entirely possible even to the coast 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: I'm not disagreeing about next week. If we can get some good snow in here then good. What I am pointing out is people saying well what about last year? I personally think late March and April snow is rubbing it in our faces of what could have been. That being said, October 31st, 2011, was still the craziest snowstorm I have ever lived through. And I don't think people are throwing in the towel yet on this season, but if next week does not pan out, then yes that ledge will be full. There are certainly some that are towel throwing. Some of it is personal bias. My personal bias is always twords snow, when ever and as much as possible. It means thousands of dollars to me. And I’m an avid snow boarder and winters last long above 2,000’ in Vermont. March is a full on winter month there. But that’s just me. On a more serious note, I agree there are major conflicting signals. I would put the chances of us seeing snow next week at 50/50. The storm could easily follow the seasonal trend and cut. What I’m excited for is what comes after. A super high amplitude 8/1 MJO is a money signal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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