Gravity Wave Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 I currently have my office window open and a lovely breeze coming in. My mood is also being improved by the near-certainty that the MJO will be making a nice pass into the favorable phases soon. E: P8 signal is major positive anomalies over Indonesia and PNG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 cloudier here today so only 50 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: cloudier here today so only 50 so far NYC and LGA already 56 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 I have 57/44, which seems like it could be just a touch too warm based on surrounding stations. That would be consistent with what @Cfa cautioned about with this particular PWS on sunny, calm, late mornings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 It's pretty incredible to have consecutive days this warm in the first week of February without being in the warm sector of a powerful cutter. Highs in the 50s and 60s are not unprecedented in winter, but they usually come accompanied by a deluge and roaring SW flow. To get this kind of prolonged warmth with fair to clear skies must be nearly as anomalous as the 80-degree day late last Feb, if not more so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 16 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: It's pretty incredible to have consecutive days this warm in the first week of February without being in the warm sector of a powerful cutter. Highs in the 50s and 60s are not unprecedented in winter, but they usually come accompanied by a deluge and roaring SW flow. To get this kind of prolonged warmth with fair to clear skies must be nearly as anomalous as the 80-degree day late last Feb, if not more so. Pretty impressive to see record highs coming so soon after record lows. https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=bgm BGM 1-29-19....record low.... -10 2-4-19.....record high..... 56 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 I gotta admit, I am loving this anomalous warmth. It feels so good to be outside! That being said, not yet ready for Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 13 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: It's pretty incredible to have consecutive days this warm in the first week of February without being in the warm sector of a powerful cutter. Highs in the 50s and 60s are not unprecedented in winter, but they usually come accompanied by a deluge and roaring SW flow. To get this kind of prolonged warmth with fair to clear skies must be nearly as anomalous as the 80-degree day late last Feb, if not more so. To me this is far less anomalous than the 80 in Feb last year. I never imagined that was possible, especially on the coast. Is hitting 60 in mid winter that unusual? Seems like we have a big thaw once every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Pretty impressive to see record highs coming so soon after record lows. Bipolar weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, Gravity Wave said: To me this is far less anomalous than the 80 in Feb last year. I never imagined that was possible, especially on the coast. Is hitting 60 in mid winter that unusual? Seems like we have a big thaw once every winter. I tried to touch on that in my original post. "Highs in the 50s and 60s are not unprecedented in winter, but they usually come accompanied by a deluge and roaring SW flow." Thaws are common, but this goes beyond the normal 18-hour dew extravaganza with snow-eating fog and 1.3" PWATs – this is bona fide spring wx. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 GFS is a parade of cutters next 10 days mixed in with colder intervals. Same ol pattern.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I tried to touch on that in my original post. "Highs in the 50s and 60s are not unprecedented in winter, but they usually come accompanied by a deluge and roaring SW flow." Thaws are common, but this goes beyond the normal 18-hour dew extravaganza with snow-eating fog and 1.3" PWATs – this is bona fide spring wx. I get that, but I still feel like days like this in early Feb are considerably more common than 80 in late Feb. Once every several years occurrence vs once every who knows how many years occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: GFS is a parade of cutters next 10 days mixed in with colder intervals. Same ol pattern.... The good pattern is trending to another beach day lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 More conflicting signals today. While it appears that we do finally head into favorable MJO phases we also have potentially a positive AO on the way in the long term. That would be the ultimate kick to this winter. We finally get favorable tropical forcing only to have it ruined by a lack of cold air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 bring on spring....64 yesterday and now already 63...hoping to flirt with 70 even tho it may be a reach 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 10 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: bring on spring....64 yesterday and now already 63...hoping to flirt with 70 even tho it may be a reach I'm happy to mail it in at this point...give me 50's and 60's the rest of the way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Be aware, if you are hiking outside and there is and has been bare ground for awhile, then ticks are a risk. Every year we get a huge thaw like this I get the question “this can’t possibly be a tick can it?”. Yes it sure can be a tick! Anytime we are above 40 degrees for a prolonged period you can see adult ticks. Luckily, these are the largest life stage so they are easy to find before they have a chance to transmit Lyme. Keep in mind many areas across the region now have the Asian longhorned tick. We are still learning more and more about these guys, so if you see any ticks that you don’t recognize, feel free to message me, especially if you are in the Yonkers area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: GFS is a parade of cutters next 10 days mixed in with colder intervals. Same ol pattern.... you just posted that you don't understand why people do play by play on OP runs past 6 days and here you are doing it on the GFS OP ??? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 66 here. 70 is definitely within reach 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: 66 here. 70 is definitely within reach what is the temp at Seaside ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: you just posted that you don't understand why people do play by play on OP runs past 6 days and here you are doing it on the GFS OP ??? I'm talking about the run in a general sense. Not doing play by play on one storm and talking about rain/snow lines and who's getting what. Big difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: what is the temp at Seaside ? 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: More conflicting signals today. While it appears that we do finally head into favorable MJO phases we also have potentially a positive AO on the way in the long term. That would be the ultimate kick to this winter. We finally get favorable tropical forcing only to have it ruined by a lack of cold air I’m not sure that’s legit. Many ensemble members tank it right back down. Honestly if the MJO goes strongly into phase 8-1-2 we probably don’t need a -AO or NAO. We would be setup with a Rockies or west coast ridge in all likelihood and would prbosbly be able to sneak our way to a couple of snow events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 weather channel says snow for three days straight in dc sorry but it ain’t snowing in the upper 40’s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: weather channel says snow for three days straight in dc sorry but it ain’t snowing in the upper 40’s DC is a snow town this winter it will find a way. They recently had heavy snow while Philly was 50F and raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 10 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: 66 here. 70 is definitely within reach Not the easiest day to dress when you leave for work in the 20’s and it’s pushing 70 by lunchtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 36 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: bring on spring....64 yesterday and now already 63...hoping to flirt with 70 even tho it may be a reach You know it's not good to have anomalous warmth this early. Early warm temperatures can trigger the growing season before it's time, which makes freezes far more damaging. 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Pretty impressive to see record highs coming so soon after record lows. https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=bgm BGM 1-29-19....record low.... -10 2-4-19.....record high..... 56 It's something that will grow more common in the future. Our climate is quickly losing its stable nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 43 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: More conflicting signals today. While it appears that we do finally head into favorable MJO phases we also have potentially a positive AO on the way in the long term. That would be the ultimate kick to this winter. We finally get favorable tropical forcing only to have it ruined by a lack of cold air All of those forecasts have been all over the place. If the MJO goes to phase 8-1 then I expect the AO to correct with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 14 minutes ago, RedSky said: DC is a snow town this winter it will find a way. They recently had heavy snow while Philly was 50F and raining. It’s incorrect it’s not going to snow with temps in 47-49 simple as that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 31 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Be aware, if you are hiking outside and there is and has been bare ground for awhile, then ticks are a risk. Every year we get a huge thaw like this I get the question “this can’t possibly be a tick can it?”. Yes it sure can be a tick! Anytime we are above 40 degrees for a prolonged period you can see adult ticks. Luckily, these are the largest life stage so they are easy to find before they have a chance to transmit Lyme. Keep in mind many areas across the region now have the Asian longhorned tick. We are still learning more and more about these guys, so if you see any ticks that you don’t recognize, feel free to message me, especially if you are in the Yonkers area. Got bit by a lone star tick last year; ticks are pretty much active unless there is a big freeze going on. And they can survive a wash cycle too. And watch your pets as well. I have the treated socks; some experts are not impressed with Deet and recommend the treated clothes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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