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February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread


Stormlover74
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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

This winter was forecasted to be a very good winter for our area. Many forecasts had a cold and snowy winter with 30-40 inches of snow. 

No one saw the Pacific and the MJO messing up this winter. 

The NAO was no help at all.

This is going to be one of the worst winters ever here. 2001-2002 still holds the crown.

I still think this is worse than 2001 2002. This winter was more of a tease and was too cold. 

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12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL-that's the hallmark sign of a dud....

That happens in any season where the pattern is stagnant in general.  In 02-03 and 09-10 models tried several times beyond Day 8-10 to break the pattern down and it never occurred.  We see it in summer too when we’ve been persistently in one pattern 

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6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I still think this is worse than 2001 2002. This winter was more of a tease and was too cold. 

those true dud winters were easy to see early on too-they had a big vortex over AK that never left.   So it was a dry torch with the cold/snow always 10 days away that never moved up in time.

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

those true dud winters were easy to see early on too-they had a big vortex over AK that never left.   So it was a dry torch with the cold/snow always 10 days away that never moved up in time.

Yup this kept us on our seats. Other winters were warmer so easier on heating bill and nicer to go outside. We had a freakin polar vortex visit and flat out got skunked. Give me 94 95 any day.

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10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup this kept us on our seats. Other winters were warmer so easier on heating bill and nicer to go outside. We had a freakin polar vortex visit and flat out got skunked. Give me 94 95 any day.

we all got used to having nice snowy winters.. it's a reality check for us all...

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15 hours ago, RU848789 said:

I am a USMNT fan and have been since the late 80s.  Used to go to occasional RU soccer matches, also, especially when Lalas was roaming the box and putting in headers.  Lost the NCAA final to UCLA on PKs (worst OT in all of sports) in 1990.  Also go to occasional women's games and play every Sunday for 2 hours with a bunch of middle aged guys.  

I am hoping this new crop of youngsters can turn things around. There was so much hope when Donovan and Onyewu and Mathis were in their prime, along with Dempsey and an even a younger Michael Bradley. But the last few years of Jozy Altidore looking confused and leaving Donovan off the 2014 WC team because the coach was an egomaniac, led me to all but give up. Turned out instead of continuing to get better, we just had a golden generation of guys that were really good by American standards, and competitive if not great by international ones. The loss to Trinidad and Tobago by a disinterested team trying make the WC on the back of a 20 year old Pulisic, and needing only a tie to do so, in front of an empty HS stadium will remain one of the most embarrassing moments in all of US sports.

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43 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That happens in any season where the pattern is stagnant in general.  In 02-03 and 09-10 models tried several times beyond Day 8-10 to break the pattern down and it never occurred.  We see it in summer too when we’ve been persistently in one pattern 

Wonder what the summer will be like if the pattern remains the same.

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4 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Wonder what the summer will be like if the pattern remains the same.

Generally if you go from El Niño to El Niño or El Niño to neutral the summers are mixed but it leans warm.   1958, 2003, 2004 bad.  1953, 1969, 1977, 1987, 1991, 2015  good but generally warmer in the back half than front half 

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Dude the pattern looked good. Stop trolling for once. The models keep showing a good pattern until we get closer.

I agree, but he does have a point.  At the first sign of any pattern change you jumped on it too quickly.  You're a good enough poster to know that this was going to happen.

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40 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Generally if you go from El Niño to El Niño or El Niño to neutral the summers are mixed but it leans warm.   1958, 2003, 2004 bad.  1953, 1969, 1977, 1987, 1991, 2015  good but generally warmer in the back half than front half 

So something like average to slightly above MJJ then +2 or so A & S? What about precip? I desperately want a drier year than '18.

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4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That happens in any season where the pattern is stagnant in general.  In 02-03 and 09-10 models tried several times beyond Day 8-10 to break the pattern down and it never occurred.  We see it in summer too when we’ve been persistently in one pattern 

Yeah I’ve noticed this too.  In 13-14 and 14-15, models consistently broke down the glorious -EPO, but on she raged....two of my favorite winters since they were good for retention snobs like me.

 

I don’t know enough about computer modeling to understand what causes this.  I’m guessing they must have some level of “continuity bias” built in, no?

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6 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

I agree, but he does have a point.  At the first sign of any pattern change you jumped on it too quickly.  You're a good enough poster to know that this was going to happen.

I thought the MJO was going to rule just like it has all winter. Nothing is working out this winter.

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Outside, the grounds of the New York Botanical Garden were largely barren. Witch Hazel and Snowdrops were in blossom. There were still some patches of snow on the grounds.

Inside the Haupt Conservatory, the 2019 orchid show had opened. Its colors hint at what lies ahead in perhaps just 4-6 weeks as Spring takes hold.

NYBG02232019collage.jpg

 

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Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.60°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.60°C for the week centered around February 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm/very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February. Conditions can be somewhat more favorable during the first half of March.

Such ENSO conditions will likely persist into at least the first half of March with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. The warm SSTAs will likely remain basin-wide.

The SOI was -15.51 today. That is the 13th consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for at least 13 consecutive days was February 13-March 3, 2016 when the SOI was at -10.00 or below for 20 consecutive days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.840. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is +0.039. Should the AO average -0.646 for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001. Therefore, given the latest ensemble forecast, the AO will very likely finish with a positive average for winter 2018-19.

On February 22, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.165 (RMM). The amplitude was slightly lower than the February 21-adjusted figure of 2.097. The MJO is now poised to head into Phase 1 as February concludes. Afterward, the MJO will advance toward and into Phase 2.

The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States.

A deepening storm will track across the Great Lakes region and then southern Canada over the next two days. As it does so, it will bring moderate to potentially heavy rainfall to parts of the East later tonight and tomorrow. In its wake, winds will likely gust past 50 mph both tomorrow night and Monday. Some areas could experience gusts in excess of 60 mph.

Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. That the MJO will likely enter March at a high amplitude is consistent with a colder start to the month.

Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall. The odds of such warming would be particularly high should the PDO be negative, as has been the case in both December and January.

Finally, looking back at the major oceanic indices for winter 2018-19, the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly is all but certain to fall into a neutral-warm/weak El Niño range of 0.01°C to +0.70°C (December-February average), the ENSO Region 1+2 will have finished with a warm anomaly making this a basin-wide event. The December-January PDO figures were negative. Since 1950, a single winter saw reasonably similar ENSO conditions paired with a negative PDO for December and January: winter 1979-80. This time around, the PDO was not as negative as it was back in 1979-80, or it is possible that the snow deficit across much of the East would have extended even farther north into New England, including Vermont and Maine.

All said, the large-scale drivers of the pattern proved to be quite hostile for the development of a snowy meteorological winter for the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The December SOI+ tendency also proved to be the "barking dog" that warned of the collapse of the El Niño that had been in place going into 2019. For the past six weeks, neutral-warm ENSO conditions have prevailed and on a basin-wide, not central Pacific-centered basis.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Officially the first winter since 11-12 with no real benchmark track 40/70 storms. Notice how dry that storm track has been compared to 2013-2018 when it was so active. Cutter and hugger storm tracks have completely dominated.

 

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Watch, we will probably start getting nor'easters in March that will wind up being all rainmakers. Timing has also been our problem amongst the other obvious issues.

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2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Watch, we will probably start getting nor'easters in March that will wind up being all rainmakers. Timing has also been our problem amongst the other obvious issues.

I don’t think you have to worry about that this time, the usual March -NAO isn’t even happening this year. The ensembles have a very strong +NAM (+NAO, +AO) developing around March 6th in addition to -PNA and the -EPO breaking down and going positive, very positive actually. It looks torchy starting March 9th and beyond

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8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t think you have to worry about that this time, the usual March -NAO isn’t even happening this year. The ensembles have a very strong +NAM (+NAO, +AO) developing around March 6th in addition to -PNA and the -EPO breaking down and going positive, very positive actually. It looks torchy starting March 9th and beyond

Maybe the first time i am hoping you are right this winter - i've just about had it with the constant disappointment, so it may as well be warm!

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12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t think you have to worry about that this time, the usual March -NAO isn’t even happening this year. The ensembles have a very strong +NAM (+NAO, +AO) developing around March 6th in addition to -PNA and the -EPO breaking down and going positive, very positive actually. It looks torchy starting March 9th and beyond

Do you see a snow event before 10th? There seems to be forum consensus that post 10th will be warm.

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