jm1220 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: You know the PAC Jet is as bad as it can be when NYC can’t get more than 5” during DJF. 1 1997-1998 0.5 0 2 1918-1919 1.1 0 3 1972-1973 2.6 0 4 1931-1932 2.7 0 5 1991-1992 3.2 0 6 2001-2002 3.5 0 7 2018-2019 3.6 9 8 2011-2012 4.5 0 9 1989-1990 5.0 0 This winter resembles a Nina much more than a Nino in terms of how snowfall has been distributed across the country, MJO stuck in phase 5/6, the constant Pacific Jet, and rounds of -PNA which are very rare in El Ninos. The bonanza snow areas have been the upper Midwest, Pacific NW and NNE, while other areas further south in the Mid Atlantic were able to cash in on the confluence-driven patterns that shunted the snow from reaching us. Luckily CA has almost totally been able to end its drought (the only drought area is right along the OR border) and the Sierras have tremendous snow piled up to replenish the reservoirs later. But this winter can't end soon enough as far as I'm concerned. It's been like having one nail ripped out after another with the storms drying up as they reach us, cutters, and missed opportunities caused by confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 56 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This winter resembles a Nina much more than a Nino in terms of how snowfall has been distributed across the country, MJO stuck in phase 5/6, the constant Pacific Jet, and rounds of -PNA which are very rare in El Ninos. The bonanza snow areas have been the upper Midwest, Pacific NW and NNE, while other areas further south in the Mid Atlantic were able to cash in on the confluence-driven patterns that shunted the snow from reaching us. Luckily CA has almost totally been able to end its drought (the only drought area is right along the OR border) and the Sierras have tremendous snow piled up to replenish the reservoirs later. But this winter can't end soon enough as far as I'm concerned. It's been like having one nail ripped out after another with the storms drying up as they reach us, cutters, and missed opportunities caused by confluence. Amen brother. Reminds me of 2007.We'd wait 3 years for another decent winter, 2010, and even that one had it's share of pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Yup, and they have won exactly 1 playoff series in a quarter century. Not the team I want the rangers to copy, but thanks. They just got them in the offseason, I meant the differences between last year and this year are amazing. They're currently the best team in the metro area across all major sports. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: This winter resembles a Nina much more than a Nino in terms of how snowfall has been distributed across the country, MJO stuck in phase 5/6, the constant Pacific Jet, and rounds of -PNA which are very rare in El Ninos. The bonanza snow areas have been the upper Midwest, Pacific NW and NNE, while other areas further south in the Mid Atlantic were able to cash in on the confluence-driven patterns that shunted the snow from reaching us. Luckily CA has almost totally been able to end its drought (the only drought area is right along the OR border) and the Sierras have tremendous snow piled up to replenish the reservoirs later. But this winter can't end soon enough as far as I'm concerned. It's been like having one nail ripped out after another with the storms drying up as they reach us, cutters, and missed opportunities caused by confluence. That gives la nina a bad name lol, most la ninas are much better than this winter has been. Our long range forecasters rely way too much on ENSO, unless ENSO is strong it doesn't have that much affect on our weather; you can find good and bad winters in any ENSO state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Last March was probably the maximum possible snowfall at a place like ISP for so little cold. 2018....31.9....38.0....-1.3 1967....23.3.....32.5...-6.8 2015....19.7.....35.2....-4.1 Funny- around here March 2015 was better than March 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: You know the PAC Jet is as bad as it can be when NYC can’t get more than 5” during DJF. 1 1997-1998 0.5 0 2 1918-1919 1.1 0 3 1972-1973 2.6 0 4 1931-1932 2.7 0 5 1991-1992 3.2 0 6 2001-2002 3.5 0 7 2018-2019 3.6 9 8 2011-2012 4.5 0 9 1989-1990 5.0 0 How is it that the west coast gets so much snowfall with a Pac Jet, but we, who are 3,000 miles away from the Pacific Ocean, get screwed? Elevation? But even Seattle has had close to 2 feet of snow this season! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 3 hours ago, bluewave said: You know the PAC Jet is as bad as it can be when NYC can’t get more than 5” during DJF. 1 1997-1998 0.5 0 2 1918-1919 1.1 0 3 1972-1973 2.6 0 4 1931-1932 2.7 0 5 1991-1992 3.2 0 6 2001-2002 3.5 0 7 2018-2019 3.6 9 8 2011-2012 4.5 0 9 1989-1990 5.0 0 91-92 if I'm not mistaken ended with some back to back moderate snowfalls right around the start of Spring. It helped out the totals for the season, but December-March were abysmal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: 91-92 if I'm not mistaken ended with some back to back moderate snowfalls right around the start of Spring. It helped out the totals for the season, but December-March were abysmal. Yes we got around 10" between the 17th and 22nd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 3 hours ago, bluewave said: You know the PAC Jet is as bad as it can be when NYC can’t get more than 5” during DJF. 1 1997-1998 0.5 0 2 1918-1919 1.1 0 3 1972-1973 2.6 0 4 1931-1932 2.7 0 5 1991-1992 3.2 0 6 2001-2002 3.5 0 7 2018-2019 3.6 9 8 2011-2012 4.5 0 9 1989-1990 5.0 0 lol 1918-19 and 2018-19- a 100 year repeat I see that this Met winter is even worse than 1989-90 and 2011-12 were and almost on par with 2001-02! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Remainder of Feb. averaging 41degs., or 5degs AN. Month to date is +2.1[36.7]. Feb. should end at about +2.6[37.8]. All 8 days averaging 40degs., or 4degs. AN. March 3 storm already degenerated into the same old setups we've been seeing all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 9 hours ago, LibertyBell said: How is it that the west coast gets so much snowfall with a Pac Jet, but we, who are 3,000 miles away from the Pacific Ocean, get screwed? Elevation? But even Seattle has had close to 2 feet of snow this season! The record snow in Seattle is all in February. It’s the deep trough centered near the Pacific Northwest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: Remainder of Feb. averaging 41degs., or 5degs AN. Month to date is +2.1[36.7]. Feb. should end at about +2.6[37.8]. All 8 days averaging 40degs., or 4degs. AN. March 3 storm already degenerated into the same old setups we've been seeing all winter. Where are you getting that the rest of Feb is 5F above normal? With the exception of today and Sunday, the rest of the month is at or below normal, with some fairly substantial negative anomalies likely Tuesday-Thursday. There is still plenty of support for cold storminess on the ensembles as we turn the calendar to March. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 46 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Where are you getting that the rest of Feb is 5F above normal? With the exception of today and Sunday, the rest of the month is at or below normal, with some fairly substantial negative anomalies likely Tuesday-Thursday. There is still plenty of support for cold storminess on the ensembles as we turn the calendar to March. 1st week of March and maybe into the 2nd week looks cold and stormy. Just need help from the PNA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 32 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 1st week of March and maybe into the 2nd week looks cold and stormy. Just need help from the PNA. Euro and GFS correcting stronger with the PAC Jet over the Western US last few days. That’s why both models lost the the snow they were showing near the beginning of March. We need that fire hose jet to relax if we want one last shot at snow. Notice how the fast flow weakened the PNA ridge models were showing a few days ago. New run Old run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 This narrative of the coastal plains historic period for significant snows ending this weekend is not really based in fact. If you consider a 6 plus inch snowfall significant historically there have been 54 such events in NYC (the heat island) from February 20th through the end of the season. Granted this is going back 150 years but that still averages out to approx. 1 event every 3 years. If you want to make the cutoff March 11 that would go more inline with historical fact. Of course 3 of the last 4 winters in NYC March has been the snowiest month and I'd place even money on this March making it 4 of the last 5. NYC 6+ inch Snows - 10 day periods 1..... Nov-11-Nov-20 4..... Nov-21-Nov-30 6..... Dec-01-Dec-10 13.... Dec-11-Dec-20 18.... Dec-21-Dec-30 12.... Dec-31-Jan-09 15.... Jan-10-Jan-19 20.... Jan-20-Jan-29 25.... Jan-30-Feb-08 25.... Feb-09-Feb-18 16.... Feb-19-Feb-28 18.... Feb-29-Mar-10 11.... Mar-11-Mar-20 2..... Mar-21-Mar-30 6..... Mar-31-Apr-09 1..... Apr-10-Apr-19 193.. Nov-15-Apr-13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 50 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 1st week of March and maybe into the 2nd week looks cold and stormy. Just need help from the PNA. The 1st week of March looks cold and that’s it. You aren’t going to get a +PNA to build for any length of time. Why? Look at Bluewave’s new post, you have a super strong PAC jet slamming into the west coast, it crashes into any +PNA that tries to form and knocks it right down. You aren’t going to sustain a +PNA with that raging jet attacking it. Also, no -NAO yet again. No -AO. Bad pattern in early March for an east coast snowstorm for those reasons. The MJO moves into the eastern IO in the first couple days of March and that tropical forcing fully supports a torch pattern developing like all the models are showing after the first week of the month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Euro and GFS correcting stronger with the PAC Jet over the Western US last few days. That’s why both models lost the the snow they were both showing near the beginning of March. We need that fire hose jet to relax if we want one last shot at some snow this season. New run Old run This 100% percent. You can already see the post 1st week of March torch coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The 1st week of March looks cold and that’s it. You aren’t going to get a +PNA to build for any length of time. Why? Look at Bluewave’s new post, you have a super strong PAC jet slamming into the west coast, it crashes into any +PNA that tries to form and knocks it right down. You aren’t going to sustain a +PNA with that raging jet attacking it. Also, no -NAO yet again. No -AO. Bad pattern in early March for an east coast snowstorm for those reasons. The MJO moves into the eastern IO in the first couple days of March and that tropical forcing fully supports a torch pattern developing like all the models are showing after the first week of the month Well, so be it. Let's have an early Spring if that is what nature decides. If no more big snow is in the cards, let's forget this winter and move on. There will be epic winters in the hopefully near future. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 21 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Well, so be it. Let's have an early Spring if that is what nature decides. If no more big snow is in the cards, let's forget this winter and move on. There will be epic winters in the hopefully near future. We're about done-the big pattern the models showed a few days ago is already falling apart just like they have all season long. Have to hope for a lucky storm but we're about finished here. (And who cares if it's cold for a week-big deal) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: We're about done-the big pattern the models showed a few days ago is already falling apart just like they have all season long. Have to hope for a lucky storm but we're about finished here. (And who cares if it's cold for a week-big deal) I pretty much agree, this winter has worm me down. Everything has always been 10 days away ever since December. Enough is enough, if we haven't learned not to trust the weeklies this winter then we're not paying attention, they've been awful. It's time for the summer avatar Anthony. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: We're about done-the big pattern the models showed a few days ago is already falling apart just like they have all season long. Have to hope for a lucky storm but we're about finished here. (And who cares if it's cold for a week-big deal) After the mild February 22-28, it’s a one week cold period (March 1-7) and that’s it. The tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent and the PAC jet/torch cometh, there’s not going to be a -NAO to stop it this time like last March, no way to sugar coat it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: After the mild February 22-28, it’s a one week cold period (March 1-7) and that’s it. The tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent and the PAC jet/torch cometh, there’s not going to be a -NAO to stop it this time like last March, no way to sugar coat it DST starts on 3/10 so let's torch away and forget this disaster of a winter... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: After the mild February 22-28, it’s a one week cold period (March 1-7) and that’s it. The tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent and the PAC jet/torch cometh, there’s not going to be a -NAO to stop it this time like last March, no way to sugar coat it The models are showing the very cold pattern coming in March 3rd. There might be a brief warmup for the 1st/2nd before the cold really comes in. Anyway I agree the pattern doesn't look great for snow depite the cold, but if you get an entire week of well below average temps in early March you have a shot. It's certainly possible to get some moisture in here during a cold week, even if it isn't a big storm. Hopefully the models pick up on something when it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 When was the last time we had a very warm March and April combined? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Just now, White Gorilla said: When was the last time we had a very warm March and April combined? '12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 13 hours ago, LibertyBell said: They just got them in the offseason, I meant the differences between last year and this year are amazing. They're currently the best team in the metro area across all major sports. Yankees??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: When was the last time we had a very warm March and April combined? 10 minutes ago, Dan76 said: '12 What a horrible stretch that was. Dec 2011, 6 degrees above normal, Jan 2012 5 degrees above, Feb 201 6 degrees above, March 2012, 10 above, April 2012 4 above, May 2012 4 above. I may have nightmares tonight. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, Dan76 said: '12 About time we do it again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I pretty much agree, this winter has worm me down. Everything has always been 10 days away ever since December. Enough is enough, if we haven't learned not to trust the weeklies this winter then we're not paying attention, they've been awful. It's time for the summer avatar Anthony. Models just weren’t able to handle the fast Pacific Jet this winter. That’s why the forecasts beyond week 1 were so poor. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Models just weren’t able to handle the fast Pacific Jet this winter. That’s why the forecasts beyond week 1 were so poor. Hasn't the Pacific jet been on steroids more often than not in recent years? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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