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February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread


Stormlover74
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Based on the latest guidance through 18z, I have little changes to my thinking from yesterday.

My final estimates are as follows:

Albany: 3"-6"
Binghamton: 2"-4"
Boston: 2"-4"
Bridgeport: 1"-3"
Concord: 1"-3"
Hartford: 2"-4"
Islip: 1" or less (initial estimate was 1"-2")
New City: 1"-3"
New York City: 1" or less
Newark: 1" or less
Portland: 1" or less
Poughkeepsie: 2"-4"
Providence" 3"-6"
Scranton: 2"-4"
White Plains: 1"-3"
Worcester: 3"-6"

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18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m 37 degrees here in Sloatsburg. The NAM and HRRR want nothing to do with tonight. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021718&fh=36

32 in wantagh right on the bay 

http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=WANT

its going to snow everywhere but maybe the jersey shore 

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Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.30°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.40°C for the week centered around February 6. For the past five weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm ENSO conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February.

Such ENSO conditions will likely persist through February with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. Under such a scenario, the probability of a significant snowfall (6" or more) will be well below climatology for the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The SOI was -29.88 today. That's the lowest figure since the SOI was at -30.78 on September 8, 2018. That's also the seventh consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for seven consecutive days was August 9-16, 2018.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.556. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.147. Should the AO average +1.066 or above for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001.

Based on historic experience (1950-2018) when the AO reached +3.000 or above during the February 1-15 period, the AO will likely remain predominantly positive through most of the second half of February. There still remains a possibility that the AO could head toward neutral or negative levels during the last week of the month, but probably not until after the AO again rises toward +3.000 or above.

On February 16, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.281 (RMM). The amplitude was above the February 15-adjusted figure of 1.023. The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8.

The combination of a neutral-warm ENSO and a powerful polar vortex responsible for the strongly positive AO remain the dominant factors driving the pattern evolution. They will likely continue to predominate over the next week. As a result, MJO convection will have little meaningful impact on the larger pattern during that time.

The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States.

There could be several opportunities for snowfall in the East in coming days, the first of which is tonight into tomorrow. However, the probability of significant snowfall events (6" or more) is well below climatology (but not zero) for the Middle Atlantic region. Central/Upstate New York across central and northern New England have a greater probability of seeing significant snow events.

Given this context, it is likely that the snow event for parts of the region later today into tomorrow will be largely unimpressive. Central Park will likely pick up 1" or less of snow. Meanwhile, snow-starved Boston (where just 4.8" snow has fallen to date) could pick up 2"-4" snow. The next storm could bring a moderate snowfall (a general 3"-6") to an area focused on Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington on Wednesday into Thursday, but lesser snowfall from New York City into southern New England.

Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Based on the latest guidance through 18z, I have little changes to my thinking from yesterday.

My final estimates are as follows:

Albany: 3"-6"
Binghamton: 2"-4"
Boston: 2"-4"
Bridgeport: 1"-3"
Concord: 1"-3"
Hartford: 2"-4"
Islip: 1" or less (initial estimate was 1"-2")
New City: 1"-3"
New York City: 1" or less
Newark: 1" or less
Portland: 1" or less
Poughkeepsie: 2"-4"
Providence" 3"-6"
Scranton: 2"-4"
White Plains: 1"-3"
Worcester: 3"-6"

Nice forecast, I agree

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Based on the latest guidance through 18z, I have little changes to my thinking from yesterday.

My final estimates are as follows:

Albany: 3"-6"
Binghamton: 2"-4"
Boston: 2"-4"
Bridgeport: 1"-3"
Concord: 1"-3"
Hartford: 2"-4"
Islip: 1" or less (initial estimate was 1"-2")
New City: 1"-3"
New York City: 1" or less
Newark: 1" or less
Portland: 1" or less
Poughkeepsie: 2"-4"
Providence" 3"-6"
Scranton: 2"-4"
White Plains: 1"-3"
Worcester: 3"-6"

Don thanks again for INCLUDING my neck of the woods in your thoughts 

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12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Not expecting more than an inch here in White Plains.  

If the new HRRR is right, we are getting less than an inch of snow, total. I’m talking maybe a half inch: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021800&fh=16

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5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Explain to me how posting pics of snow is not part of a weather forum but constant reminders of how you hate snow is? It’s turned into an every day thing and it’s getting really old.

Nice onshore flow currently on the south shore, which is my reasoning for low expectation right at the coast. This is a 20 miles inland event.

As I have explained its not that I hate snow--as I have gotten older I don't like it as much--snow is disruptive and big storms are often dangerous.  This winter has been bereft of snow, one that we have been due for.  You live on the South Shore of Long Island, snow is hard to come by.  

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1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said:

As I have explained its not that I hate snow--as I have gotten older I don't like it as much--snow is disruptive and big storms are often dangerous.  This winter has been bereft of snow, one that we have been due for.  You live on the South Shore of Long Island, snow is hard to come by.  

Relax. It is entirely appropriate to offer opinions on the weather in a weather forum. If not here, where?

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the new HRRR is right, we are getting less than an inch of snow, total. I’m talking maybe a half inch: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021800&fh=16

Looks pretty terrible everywhere, no surprise the way this winter is going

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1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said:

I'm not upset--its ok for people to enjoy different types of winter weather---even on a weather board dominated by snow lovers

People are just frustrated, but really, there's nothing to be done about it. There are other things in life. A huge chunk of the world's population lives just fine without snow. Never met a person who grew up in a warm climate who wanted to remain where it snows. And I have met many. Snow is deeply unpopular. I happen to like it, and am disappointed this latest event is nothing much, and don't have any hopes for Wed, or even the remainder of this winter. But it will snow again at some point. We'll always have next winter....less than a year away!

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