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February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread


Stormlover74
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17 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

It's still winter but that doesn't mean we can't hope for spring like weather to arrive early; used to happen a lot back in the day. 

There hasn’t been much middle ground with Marches during the 2010’s. While most have been cold, the few warm ones were record warm.

NYC March

2018....-2-4

2017....-3.3

2016....+6.4

2015.....-4.4

2014....-4.8

2013.....-2.4

2012....+8.4

2011....-0.2

2010...+5.7

 

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21 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Dew points are going to be low so the latest Nam is not shocking at all.

It also has precip arriving a bit earlier which as stated above is so important in these events. Given that the precip comes in at night I don't think surface temps will be that warm but the mid level warming unfortunately presents the risk of 33-34 degree rain but hoping we see more sleet, less rain. 

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20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There hasn’t been much middle ground with Marches during the 2010’s. While most have been cold, the few warm ones were record warm.

NYC March

2018....-2-4

2017....-3.3

2016....+6.4

2015.....-4.4

2014....-4.8

2013.....-2.4

2012....+8.4

2011....-0.2

2010...+5.7

 

I hope this is a record warm March, I'll take anything to completely blast this winter into oblivion. 

It's been the worst winter ever.

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I hope this is a record warm March, I'll take anything to completely blast this winter into oblivion. 

It's been the worst winter ever.

Agree if it's going to barely snow rather it feel comfortable outside

Agree with one of the worst winters ever, the entire winter lacked one event that was all snow or even all frozen for anyone in/near the  city

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I agree but he does have a point if the models are wrong with the placement.

 

It's still winter

The MIO is now in 8 and going into 1. There is a lag so it will not surprise me if we get snow in the 1st week of March 

Warm pattern ? Based off what?

 

 

Well it looks like Thurs-Mon all feature AN temps, no?

That gives us 2 days to look for a February event...and we are into March.

End of February comes up real quick.

 

If we salvage something tonight, we had 3 solid days of snow cover from last storm and will have 3 days of solid cover before that 50 on Thursday with this storm.

I guess I will take it in a snowless winter

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1 minute ago, jfklganyc said:

Well it looks like Thurs-Mon all feature AN temps, no?

That gives us 2 days to look for a February event...and we are into March.

End of February comes up real quick.

 

If we salvage something tonight, we had 3 solid days of snow cover from last storm and will have 3 days of solid cover before that 50 on Thursday with this storm.

I guess I will take it in a snowless winter

This winter has been awful for many areas

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14 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

It also has precip arriving a bit earlier which as stated above is so important in these events. Given that the precip comes in at night I don't think surface temps will be that warm but the mid level warming unfortunately presents the risk of 33-34 degree rain but hoping we see more sleet, less rain. 

3K Nam also for tonight has snow to start

The Nam is also faster with the arrival of the precip for Wednesday

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9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This winter has been awful for many areas

The last 10 days January was up there for some of the most wasted cold of all time around here. At least the single digit cold at the beginning of Jan 2018 produced with the 950 mb benchmark blizzard.

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45 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Let’s hope for an early spring!   A steady warm up, longer days, cool evenings.   Sounds wonderful

Good luck with that.  It’s not likely we will hold SE ridging like this much longer.   I’m not saying by any means April and May will be miserable but when you’re in this sort of pattern now which would correlate to very mild weather in April the odds are we flip to something different in the next few weeks 

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37 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

3K Nam also for tonight has snow to start

The Nam is also faster with the arrival of the precip for Wednesday

It's long range for NAM, but NAM does give Central NJ several inches of snow wednesday. Better than what other models show. We need the confluence to trend a little weaker so the snow doesn't fall apart as it comes in. GFS, GGEM and EURO have been showing it weakening to light snow due to the confluence and give us only around 1 inch. Hopefully the better looking 12z NAM will be the start of a better trend for wednesday.

 

For tonight HRRR is colder and gets 1 to 2 inches of snow down to NYC. NAM however says you have to go north of NYC to see accumulating snow. Continues to be a tough call.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Good luck with that.  It’s not likely we will hold SE ridging like this much longer.   I’m not saying by any means April and May will be miserable but when you’re in this sort of pattern now which would correlate to very mild weather in April the odds are we flip to something different in the next few weeks 

The MJO is going into 1 soon and there is usually a lag so don't expect winter to end soon. Many people think spring will be here by mid March but it's going to be tough to get that.

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45 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Good luck with that.  It’s not likely we will hold SE ridging like this much longer.   I’m not saying by any means April and May will be miserable but when you’re in this sort of pattern now which would correlate to very mild weather in April the odds are we flip to something different in the next few weeks 

I don't like your odds :P  I rarely hope for you to be wrong but this would be one of those times. Bring on the warmth :) 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Let’s hope the EPS showing a relaxation of the SE Ridge works out in about 10 days. Maybe we get a window near the beginning of March for a more significant snow event than we have seen recently.

 

5C3D886F-8445-4308-9E21-5C0EC68F1AB0.thumb.png.938309055941caaf2784c97fb8a6915d.png

That's a real nice look with a -EPO and an east-based NAO. Will keep temps cold for sure with the PV near Hudson Bay.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

There hasn’t been much middle ground with Marches during the 2010’s. While most have been cold, the few warm ones were record warm.

NYC March

2018....-2-4

2017....-3.3

2016....+6.4

2015.....-4.4

2014....-4.8

2013.....-2.4

2012....+8.4

2011....-0.2

2010...+5.7

 

March 2015 broke the record with a 20" snowpack in NYC. In the suburbs, there was snow on the ground until almost 3/20.

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Just now, 495weatherguy said:

Hopefully this pattern will follow the lead of this winter and modify as we get closer.

you can't believe  the long range models past 5 days but it seems some people get suckered in Hook Line and Sinker every time the GFS shows a great pattern in the longer range past 5 -7 days...….which it has been doing many times this winter......

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Why?

Anthony, I used to be a snow person just like you, no one enjoyed a storm and the cold as much as I did(although I wasn't/still am not)as knowledgeable as you.  I'm a little bit older now---snow is a major pain in rear---for many reasons.  And dangerous as well.  I love the warmer weather that allows all to go outside and enjoy.  Just my two cents

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you can't believe  the long range models past 5 days but it seems some people get suckered in Hook Line and Sinker every time the GFS shows a great pattern in the longer range past 5 -7 days...….which it has been doing many times this winter......

That is true but MJO may cooperate this time around going from 8 to 1. I think early March will be cold. 

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