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February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread


Stormlover74
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9 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Other than that it was a bum winter, and 2017 was nothing special either. Haven't had a blockbuster winter IMBY since 2014; 2015 I disregard because most of the events were so small.

My favorite snowstorms winters this decade were 10-11, 15-16, and 17-18. 

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My favorite snowstorms winters this decade were 10-11, 15-16, and 17-18. 

17-18 was good to the north, south, east, and west of me. The only storm that got anywhere  close to being serious was the last March storm. The "bomb cyclone" struggled west of the Hudson, and everything else in March was a dud IMBY, save for the last one. Special mention as April did deliver a small storm with a few inches, which is always a bonus. So I have to go back to 2014 for a truly snowy winter. I've written this one off already; no way anything else that happens in this pattern is gonna be worth much.

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8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Up your way, not down here. At least not from what I'm reading here.

New York City is going to get a decent 2-4 tomorrow night that’s my call. Im going to pick the rgem cause it makes perfect sense to me. You guys can disagree and I’ll admit it if I’m wrong here on Monday afternoon. Fair enough?

 

 

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13 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

17-18 was good to the north, south, east, and west of me. The only storm that got anywhere  close to being serious was the last March storm. The "bomb cyclone" struggled west of the Hudson, and everything else in March was a dud IMBY, save for the last one. Special mention as April did deliver a small storm with a few inches, which is always a bonus. So I have to go back to 2014 for a truly snowy winter. I've written this one off already; no way anything else that happens in this pattern is gonna be worth much.

Yeah, it’s all a matter of how close to the jackpots of the individual storms your area got. I missed the best jackpots in 09-10, 12-13, 13-14, and 14-15.

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23 minutes ago, New York Blizzard said:

New York City is going to get a decent 2-4 tomorrow night that’s my call. Im going to pick the rgem cause it makes perfect sense to me. You guys can disagree and I’ll admit it if I’m wrong here on Monday afternoon. Fair enough?

 

 

Pick a point in New York City to the north then with that call. I don’t think JFK, Staten Island, or the Rockaways get 2-4. Maybe 1-2. 

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Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.30°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.40°C for the week centered around February 6. For the past five weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm ENSO conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February.

Such ENSO conditions will likely persist through February with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. Under such a scenario, the probability of a significant snowfall (6" or more) will be well below climatology for the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The SOI was -24.88 today. That's the sixth consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for five consecutive days was September 6-11, 2018.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.788. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.169. Should the AO average +1.107 or above for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001.

Based on historic experience (1950-2018) when the AO reached +3.000 or above during the February 1-15 period, the AO will likely remain predominantly positive through most of the second half of February. The AO could head toward neutral or negative levels during the last week of the month.

On February 15, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.021 (RMM). The amplitude fell sharply from the February 14-adjusted figure of 1.423.

The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8, but a brief push back into Phase 7 based on historical data cannot be ruled out. Such a move could occur at a low amplitude. As the MJO remains in or near Phase 8, the AO should begin to decline. However, on account of the abnormally strong polar vortex responsible for the current high AO+ readings, that process could be a slow one.

The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States.

There could be several opportunities for snowfall in the East in coming days. However, the probability of significant snowfall events (6" or more) is well below climatology (but not zero) for the Middle Atlantic region. Central/Upstate New York across central and northern New England have a greater probability of seeing significant snow events.

Given this context, it is likely that the snow event for parts of the region later Sunday into Monday will be largely unimpressive. Central Park could he hard-pressed to exceed an inch or two. Meanwhile, snow-starved Boston (where just 4.8" snow has fallen to date) could pick up 2"-4" snow.

Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall.

In the meantime, Caribou's seasonal snowfall now stands at 131.1". That's the 20th highest figure on record and second highest seasonal total to date. Winter 2007-08 had seen 135.3" snow through February 16.

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29 minutes ago, New York Blizzard said:

New York City is going to get a decent 2-4 tomorrow night that’s my call. Im going to pick the rgem cause it makes perfect sense to me. You guys can disagree and I’ll admit it if I’m wrong here on Monday afternoon. Fair enough?

 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021618&fh=63

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.30°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.40°C for the week centered around February 6. For the past five weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm ENSO conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February.

Such ENSO conditions will likely persist through February with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. Under such a scenario, the probability of a significant snowfall (6" or more) will be well below climatology for the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The SOI was -24.88 today. That's the sixth consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for five consecutive days was September 6-11, 2018.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.788. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.169. Should the AO average +1.107 or above for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001.

Based on historic experience (1950-2018) when the AO reached +3.000 or above during the February 1-15 period, the AO will likely remain predominantly through most of the second half of February. The AO could head toward neutral or negative levels during the last week of the month.

On February 15, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.021 (RMM). The amplitude fell sharply from the February 14-adjusted figure of 1.423.

The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8, but a brief push back into Phase 7 based on historical data cannot be ruled out. Such a move could occur at a low amplitude. As the MJO remains in or near Phase 8, the AO should begin to decline. However, on account of the abnormally strong polar vortex responsible for the current high AO+ readings, that process could be a slow one.

The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States.

There could be several opportunities for snowfall in the East in coming days. However, the probability of significant snowfall events (6" or more) is well below climatology (but not zero) for the Middle Atlantic region. Central/Upstate New York across central and northern New England have a greater probability of seeing significant snow events.

Given this context, it is likely that the snow event for parts of the region later Sunday into Monday will be largely unimpressive. Central Park could he hard-pressed to exceed an inch or two. Meanwhile, snow-starved Boston (where just 4.8" snow has fallen to date) could pick up 2"-4" snow.

Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall.

In the meantime, Caribou's seasonal snowfall now stands at 131.1". That's the 20th highest figure on record and second highest seasonal total to date. Winter 2007-08 had seen 135.3" snow through February 16.

Great post!

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9 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This event isn’t a changeover event though.  Someone is gonna get a good 5-6 inches with this.  It may be Hartford or Boston or Danbury vs NYC but I do think this is gonna be the first solid snow event for many in CT/NY/MA/RI

Agree there will be sharp gradient with this models seem to show mainly all rain or mainly all snow depending on location. The border zone seems to be the city itself 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it’s all a matter of how close to the jackpots of the individual storms your area got. I missed the best jackpots in 09-10, 12-13, 13-14, and 14-15.

09-10 was a tough one, and I too missed the best jackpots for every storm, but that was still miles better than this year! 

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Consistent with February storms during neutral-warm ENSO conditions, the northern Middle Atlantic region does not appear to be in line for much snow. Instead, the heaviest amounts will likely stretch across an area running from central New York State and central New England.

My estimates are as follows:

Albany: 3"-6"
Binghamton: 2"-4"
Boston: 2"-4"
Bridgeport: 1"-3"
Concord: 1"-3"
Hartford: 2"-4"
Islip: 1"-2"
New City: 1"-3"
New York City: 1" or less
Newark: 1" or less
Portland: 1" or less
Poughkeepsie: 2"-4"
Providence" 3"-6"
Scranton: 2"-4"
White Plains: 1"-3"
Worcester: 3"-6"

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It'll be difficult to verify the widespread .5"+ QPF from the NAM and RGEM, so expecting 4-6" is probably setting oneself up for disappointment. There will be a narrow band of better snow growth and heavier rates coinciding with transient fronto banding, but that may be all the way up in the Capital District, and will be difficult to pin down regardless. 2-4" is a reasonable call where precip remains all snow.

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