February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

[weatherlogix]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

The Pacific is really killing this winter

This might be the 1st winter in a while without a KU event.

Do you realize that from Feb 9 1978 through March 11 1994 there was like ONE real KU storm (Feb 1983)...I, personally, don't think the Jan/Feb 1986 storms qualify

[TJW014]

ICON a little better on Saturday. Still to the south, but at least showing something on Saturday unlike the NAM. Trended warmer from 06z for President's Day system.

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

I have been singing the 80's song for a while. I was in school (elementary/middle/high school) from 1979-1991, I had ONE snow day my entire life. February 14, 1983. ONE!

I didn't even have that- it started Friday afternoon here right before midwinter recess so all we got is early release- an hour early lol.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

Do you realize that from Feb 9 1978 through March 11 1994 there was like ONE real KU storm (Feb 1983)...I, personally, don't think the Jan/Feb 1986 storms qualify

What about Feb 1979 (PD1) and April 1982?  They were both close to double digits and I would put April 1982 just because of when it happened and how cold it was.

Neither reached 18" here which is what I call HECS though.

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

If the AO and NAO are favorable (and -PNA), theoretically, there would be a north atlantic block or at least some confluence in SE Canada....so its conceivable that the trough wouldn't just lift up through the lakes like what has been happening. Assuming confluence, could be a Miller B...etc

I dont think the NAO is all that good, or it's east based.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

We are overdue for several years in a row of below normal snowfall and no KU events - 2018 -2019 may be the start …….

Is there such thing as overdue though. Maybe next year is another clunker or maybe it's a blockbuster.

We've had clunkers in the past and they didn't suddenly create a string of BN snowfall years. How quickly people forget.

11/12 was followed by a near normal winter, which was then followed by another string of AN snowy winters. 

[purduewx80]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's obviously the inexperienced who dont remember what the 80s were like and we live near an Ocean that will always scour out mid level cold air sooner than models forecast.

The ocean has ZERO to do with mid-level temps. That warm layer yesterday was brought in on stiff SW winds. It's more important to understand why southwest flow events bring in that warmth. 

[weatherpruf]

27 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

Do you realize that from Feb 9 1978 through March 11 1994 there was like ONE real KU storm (Feb 1983)...I, personally, don't think the Jan/Feb 1986 storms qualify

It is true that they were rare however the April 82 event may qualify as well as January 87 and March 93, however they did not feature more than about a foot but at the time that was considered huge.

[EastonSN+]

39 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

If the AO and NAO are favorable (and -PNA), theoretically, there would be a north atlantic block or at least some confluence in SE Canada....so its conceivable that the trough wouldn't just lift up through the lakes like what has been happening. Assuming confluence, could be a Miller B...etc

I wrote the above before today's were published. Todays look bad.

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

The ocean has ZERO to do with mid-level temps. That warm layer yesterday was brought in on stiff SW winds. It's more important to understand why southwest flow events bring in that warmth. 

Then how is it that coastal areas switched over far more quickly than anyone else did?

I noticed that the warm tongue came right up from the Jersey shore and hit us before it got to anyone else.  West of that it was still snowing at the same latitude.

We've had SWFE that stayed all snow even at the south shore- a la Feb 2008.  And other such events that stayed all frozen even if not all snow, like VD 2007.  The storm track well to our west brought in milder air off the ocean and changed over coastal areas first and then other areas further inland and at the same latitude.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Is there such thing as overdue though. Maybe next year is another clunker or maybe it's a blockbuster.

We've had clunkers in the past and they didn't suddenly create a string of BN snowfall years. How quickly people forget.

11/12 was followed by a near normal winter, which was then followed by another string of AN snowy winters. 

that string of + NAO winters was going to burn us sooner or later lol.

 

[purduewx80]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Then how is it that coastal areas switched over far more quickly than anyone else did?

I noticed that the warm tongue came right up from the Jersey shore and hit us before it got to anyone else.  West of that it was still snowing at the same latitude.

The transition worked in from SW to NE, plain and simple. Take a look at the 00Z CHH sounding, for example. The warm layer from 700-800mb rushing in on 50-70KT SW winds caused the changeover - there is certainly not an ocean SW of here. BOS was switching over from SN to a mix of SN, FZRA and PL at the time.

The switch to RA or RAPL was caused by those stiff SE winds down low off the Atlantic, however. 

Be careful of judging precip types by any radar product you find online. They are often determining precip types based off a combo of model initialization and observations, many of which (automated stations especially) aren't able to differentiate between snow and pellets or fzra, etc. 

[495weatherguy]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

We are overdue for several years in a row of below normal snowfall and no KU events - 2018 -2019 may be the start …….

Hoping!

[New York Blizzard]

Looks like we’ll catch up on our snowfall the next couple weeks big time. Hope it stays on course! Cmc has several snowfall events and so does gfs 

[ChasingFlakes]

I'm from philly but in working up in Little Falls NJ today and its snowing pretty decently.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

I'm from philly but in working up in Little Falls NJ today and its snowing pretty decently.

[TJW014]

That wind be cranking. Had a few gusts over 40 down here by the river.

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, weatherlogix said:

Do you realize that from Feb 9 1978 through March 11 1994 there was like ONE real KU storm (Feb 1983)...I, personally, don't think the Jan/Feb 1986 storms qualify

January 1987 was an epic snow month where I lived in Worcester, MA with a record breaking 70 inches at Worcester Airport that month alone.  I remember going to school with the biggest snowpack I have ever seen and may ever see.  Coastal sections saw a lot of mix and rain events that month and where I lived was in that sweet spot close to the rain/snow line.  It was really the only month that I remember throughout the 80s with one snowstorm after another.  The next time I experienced that was January-February 1994 in Boston. 

[TJW014]

GFS looks best for Wednesday's event

GEM looks best for Saturday's event

GFS-FV3 looks best for Monday's event

We'll see about the Euro. A combo of all three would be great.

I can dream, right?

 

 

[weatherpruf]

15 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

January 1987 was an epic snow month where I lived in Worcester, MA with a record breaking 70 inches at Worcester Airport that month alone.  I remember going to school with the biggest snowpack I have ever seen and may ever see.  Coastal sections saw a lot of mix and rain events that month and where I lived was in that sweet spot close to the rain/snow line.  It was really the only month that I remember throughout the 80s with one snowstorm after another.  The next time I experienced that was January-February 1994 in Boston. 

Down here was not epic, ever, in the 80's. The Jan 87 storm had such impact because no one had seen a big snow in years. We'd get a blizzard every few years, none the size of recent years.

[Tatamy]

My. Holly has just issued a snow squall warning for eastern PA and western NJ.

[Ericjcrash]

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

My. Holly has just issued a snow squall warning for eastern PA and western NJ.

Looks pretty good actually. Let's see how far east it'll make it.

[SnowGoose69]

35 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

GFS looks best for Wednesday's event

GEM looks best for Saturday's event

GFS-FV3 looks best for Monday's event

We'll see about the Euro. A combo of all three would be great.

I can dream, right?

 

 

I’m inclined to think the Saturday event may come north somewhat but probably not enough to hit here.  Monday may end up mostly rain here because I think that’ll come north too from the current ensemble mean 

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Then how is it that coastal areas switched over far more quickly than anyone else did?

I noticed that the warm tongue came right up from the Jersey shore and hit us before it got to anyone else.  West of that it was still snowing at the same latitude.

We've had SWFE that stayed all snow even at the south shore- a la Feb 2008.  And other such events that stayed all frozen even if not all snow, like VD 2007.  The storm track well to our west brought in milder air off the ocean and changed over coastal areas first and then other areas further inland and at the same latitude.

 

 

Actually, the snow hung on longer on the east end of the island.  The ocean warmed the boundary more near the coast, but has little or nothing to do with the "mid levels" on a southwest flow around here.

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Actually, the snow hung on longer on the east end of the island.  The ocean warmed the boundary more near the coast, but has little or nothing to do with the "mid levels" on a southwest flow around here.

Yes i was very surprised, past exit 68 on the LI there was the same amount of snow as back here. There was a big drop between Hauppauge and the William Floyd, where it picked up again

[TJW014]

Looking at the Mid-Atlantic forum, the Euro currently has DC in 3-5". That hopefully will trend to the north  

[weatherlogix]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

What about Feb 1979 (PD1) and April 1982?  They were both close to double digits and I would put April 1982 just because of when it happened and how cold it was.

Neither reached 18" here which is what I call HECS though.

In the NYC area PDI wasn't as impactful as it was in the Mid-Atlantic

April 1982 slipped my mind but a storm like that in January wouldn't have been that huge a deal...what did Central Park record 9.6"?

[Rtd208]

Snow flurries here, a squall  looks to be just to my north.

Temp 40

[weatherlogix]

3 hours ago, weatherlogix said:

Do you realize that from Feb 9 1978 through March 11 1994 there was like ONE real KU storm (Feb 1983)...I, personally, don't think the Jan/Feb 1986 storms qualify

I meant Jan/Feb 1987.....

[weatherlogix]

2 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

January 1987 was an epic snow month where I lived in Worcester, MA with a record breaking 70 inches at Worcester Airport that month alone.  I remember going to school with the biggest snowpack I have ever seen and may ever see.  Coastal sections saw a lot of mix and rain events that month and where I lived was in that sweet spot close to the rain/snow line.  It was really the only month that I remember throughout the 80s with one snowstorm after another.  The next time I experienced that was January-February 1994 in Boston. 

And I meant Jan 1987...I think it was January 25.....I was in 8th grade. NYC was forecasted to get a quick 2-4" and switch over to sleet/rain, like so many 1980's storms had done before it....but it kept snowing and ended as freezing drizzle. That storm was in at 9AM and out by 430PM or so. The next week there was a storm that mostly stayed to the south - NYC was forecasted to get a lot more than what actually occurred. One last storm later in February, also hitting the mid-Atlantic harder than this area....and I thought that winter was the greatest thing since sliced bread....had no idea a 1995-1996 was even possible.