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February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread


Stormlover74
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2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

It’s the same crap it’s thermals are terrible so take it with a grain of salt, the best model for thermals is the nam but it’s not in range

I agree

Gfs sucks in these kind of situations. What's funny is that the cmc is alot colder than the gfs. Snow to ice to rain for the coast.

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Just now, NEG NAO said:

reason being look at the difference of the position of the high to the north and the primary to the west and their individual strength

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

Yep

Both models still have rain after the initial light snowfall but the cmc is better with the position of the lakes cutter.

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

reason being look at the difference of the position of the high to the north and the primary to the west and their individual strength

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

We’ve been through this a million times you’re not a rookie gfs is horrible. The only thing GfS seems to be decent is the track

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Yep

Both models still have rain after the initial light snowfall but the cmc is better with the position of the lakes cutter.

This isn't something I'm optimistic about around NYC after an initial maybe 1-3" of snow/slop. It's a pretty typical Nina-like setup where the primary and SW flow aloft kills the cold air in place despite it redeveloping and the high over Quebec. That might save it for Boston but whatever redevelopment is too late here. NW areas hold onto cold surface air and have an icy setup. Maybe some of these basic conditions can change but it's not something I'm staying up to track around my neck of the woods at least. The Nov 15th system may have been the one of 10 of these SWFE crap events to work out but odds are this is a brief snow to washout event near the coast. Also, these often trend warm at the end. 

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This isn't something I'm optimistic about around NYC after an initial maybe 1-3" of snow/slop. It's a pretty typical Nina-like setup where the primary and SW flow aloft kills the cold air in place despite it redeveloping and the high over Quebec. That might save it for Boston but whatever redevelopment is too late here. NW areas hold onto cold surface air and have an icy setup. Maybe some of these basic conditions can change but it's not something I'm staying up to track around my neck of the woods at least. The Nov 15th system may have been the one of 10 of these SWFE crap events to work out but odds are this is a brief snow to washout event near the coast. Also, these often trend warm at the end. 

It will all depend where the low goes and then transfers. We have a cold airmas in place. I like a few inches before the changeover

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CMC looks like 3-4" of snow for the immediate NYC metro (including my house, lol), followed by another 0.6" of LE as sleet (as per soundings through 0Z Weds/96 hours, which show a definite sleet signature until at least that time, as per below (for Edison - NYC was very similar - Trenton was warmer, so less sleet likely), with a warm nose above 32F from 700 to 900 mbar and with the bottom ~2500 feet of the column at or below 32F), followed by another 1" of rain to be conservative, as the soundings 6 hours later are definitely rain (surface at 38F).  In that case, the ~1" of frozen LE would likely simply absorb the 1" of pure rain, with minimal to modest melting, since surface temps just barely make it above 40F by early Weds morning, although they stay above 32F through Wednesday, so melting will occur (and not a hard freeze, as modeled).  I bet the TT map would look just like the FV3 map if the CMC TT map showed sleet.  

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

 

gdps_2019020900_096_40.56--74.4.png

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3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

CMC looks like 3-4" of snow for the immediate NYC metro (including my house, lol), followed by another 0.6" of LE as sleet (as per soundings through 0Z Weds/96 hours, which show a definite sleet signature until at least that time, as per below (for Edison - NYC was very similar - Trenton was warmer, so less sleet likely), with a warm nose above 32F from 700 to 900 mbar and with the bottom ~2500 feet of the column at or below 32F), followed by another 1" of rain to be conservative, as the soundings 6 hours later are definitely rain (surface at 38F).  In that case, the ~1" of frozen LE would likely simply absorb the 1" of pure rain, with minimal to modest melting, since surface temps just barely make it above 40F by early Weds morning, although they stay above 32F through Wednesday, so melting will occur (and not a hard freeze, as modeled).  I bet the TT map would look just like the FV3 map if the CMC TT map showed sleet.  

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

 

gdps_2019020900_096_40.56--74.4.png

Yeah the GGEM gives a long period of sleet after the 3 to 4 inches of snow. I just watched the color loop and it gives our area sleet for about 7 hours, before the change to rain.

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17 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Thanks for confirming.  What's the "color loop?"

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

 

It's just like watching the futurecast (precip types, timing and movement) that you see on tv weathercasts, only it's the Canadian models instead. For the first 48 hours it shows the RGEM, and then at hour 49 it switches to the GGEM and goes out to day 5. You just have to hit animate. Very good tool.

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FV3 looks like it might have backed off a bit from the 18Z run from the NCEP site.  Looks like about maybe 3/4" frozen (snow and sleet) vs. close to 1" at 18Z, then a lot of rain. Hard to read those maps, though, so I could be off on that.  

UK holds course with a helluva nice snow thump of 6-10" for most - looks nearly identical to 12Z.  

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6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

 

It's just like watching the futurecast (precip types, timing and movement) that you see on tv weathercasts, only it's the Canadian models instead. For the first 48 hours it shows the RGEM, and then at hour 49 it switches to the GGEM and goes out to day 5. You just have to hit animate. Very good tool.

Sweet - thanks!

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01/11/91, 02/21/93 and 02/23/94 all show up in the top 10 analogs tonight.   Snow amounts in NYC were 5.7, 4.3, and 2.4...this event is probably closest on high position to 1/11/91 but in terms of the approaching storm system strength and WAA closest to 1994.  That would put us near 3-4 inches which is what the Euro has been showing 

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