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February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread


Stormlover74
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1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

You don't understand snow lovers then.  I absolutely love everything about seeing snow falling and accumulating, even if it gets washed away, since I enjoy watching it and being out in it - sure I'd like it to stick around, but that's secondary to me.  And it's even more fun if that snow was well predicted.  

we've had a hard time getting even that...we had a couple of hours of falling snow 1/20 and then the snow squall last week.  Other than that, rainers from start to finish 

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1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

You don't understand snow lovers then.  I absolutely love everything about seeing snow falling and accumulating, even if it gets washed away, since I enjoy watching it and being out in it - sure I'd like it to stick around, but that's secondary to me.  And it's even more fun if that snow was well predicted.  

And people overestimate snow getting washed away too. Yeah an inch or two will get washed away, but it's rare for 5 or 6 inches to get completely washed away unless it's VERY warm during the rain. Usually the snow absorbs a lot of the water and becomes very heavy.

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2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It does appear the NAO is finally going negative in the next 7-10 days.  The problem is it appears the PNA isn’t going positive so I’m not sure the pattern gets markedly better.  I do think NYC might end up seeing double digit snowfall this month.   The thing is it might all be washed away each time by rain.  Think February 1993.  I think we had 3 SWFEs and about 11-12 inches that month but nothing was on the ground for more than 12 hours 

I remember that. 1 to 4 each storm then heavy rain.

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11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And people overestimate snow getting washed away too. Yeah an inch or two will get washed away, but it's rare for 5 or 6 inches to get completely washed away unless it's VERY warm during the rain. Usually the snow absorbs a lot of the water and becomes very heavy.

Great point. If it's in the 30s, 0.5" of rain on top of 0.5" of LE as sleet/snow, will mostly just make 1.0" of LE as slush, with little melting going on (not counting treated roads and not factoring in sun angle, if that's important).  It's like 1" of LE as 5:1 ratio "slush" lol, and then it often all freezes on the backside cold which often comes in.  

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50 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GFS will never get an event like this correct ever at this range.  Based on that high postition and the degree of lift that’s easily a repeat of the November event with probably 3-6 inches even to the coast 

very very very unlikely, honestly no snow at all fits the pattern let alone 3-6 inches.  Its a awful setup

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7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

My concern is that the UKMET is overly aggressive given the pattern. I hope it's reasonably accurate, but if not, it won't be the first time this winter it was too aggressive in forecasting snowfall for the area.

That's a 10 to 1 map and overdone.

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 12Z UKMET sand 00Z Euro still want to show some overrunning snows Sunday night into Monday with the initial wave.  The GFS has never had it and the NAM has now dropped it recent runs for the most part  

Ukie has a few inches for wednesday. Euro also is very cold to start for Wednesday then sleet then rain.

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45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Honestly, who cares anymore-let's just get an early spring and put this disaster behind us.   BTW any years with an inch of snow b/w 12/1-2/28 Met winter?????

Boston is suffering worse than us this winter. They average around 45 inches. They are way below normal.

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Euro, Ukie and CMC are all colder than the Gfs for next week.

Like I mentioned, the Gfs isn't going to see the cad signature well.

Right now it's some accumulating snow for the coast then sleet and rain and more snow as you head inland.

A little snow Sunday night also

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4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Everyone thought this winter was going to be good because of the weak El Nino . Majority of forecasts had NYC at 30-40 inches and even some had it more than that.

 

The SSW likely caused the MJO to be all over the place. If the SSW didn't happen, this would probably be a good winter.

Nothing written here makes any sense meteorologically.  The baseline assumption that a weak El Nino guarantees a snowy winter...no.   The idea that the SSW overwhelmed an El Nino and somehow caused the MJO to be "all over the place"...no.  Just none of it makes any sense.

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2 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Nothing written here makes any sense meteorologically.  The baseline assumption that a weak El Nino guarantees a snowy winter...no.   The idea that the SSW overwhelmed an El Nino and somehow caused the MJO to be "all over the place"...no.  Just none of it makes any sense.

that's our metfan.....

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