Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread


Stormlover74
 Share

Recommended Posts

0Z GFS has more sleet for the 95 corridor than previous runs, but similar mass of frozen precip (snow + sleet), as per the TT map; Pivotal shows less snow, though and doesn't include sleet at all.  Soundings at 114 hours are clearly sleet for much of the 95 corridor with 850s at 33F and a fairly deep sub-32F layer below that.  Saw a lot of this kind of discrepancy for 11/15 and 1/20, also. 

gfs_asnow_neus_25.png

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Is anyone watching the first wave for sunday night into monday morning? 0z NAM and GGEM give southern NJ some decent snow accumulations. I wouldn't ignore this first wave, even though the tuesday storm has bigger potential. We just need a little trend north.

Looks like it's SE NJ's winter, lol - think I read that Cape May has more snow this winter than NYC and Boston combined...

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

From Upton this evening regarding next week: basically let’s get closer before we get too excited for accumulating snow. 

Systems in the extended have trended warmer for much of
this winter and it is quite possible we are already seeing signs of
this occurring in the latest model runs. High pressure builds back
into the region for the end of the week
Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Is anyone watching the first wave for sunday night into monday morning? 0z NAM and GGEM give southern NJ some decent snow accumulations. I wouldn't ignore this first wave, even though the tuesday storm has bigger potential. We just need a little trend north.

The NAM even gives NYC a shot at respectable snow.  The GFS looks like crap for mostly everyone on it 

  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

From Upton this evening regarding next week: basically let’s get closer before we get too excited for accumulating snow. 


Systems in the extended have trended warmer for much of
this winter and it is quite possible we are already seeing signs of
this occurring in the latest model runs. High pressure builds back
into the region for the end of the week

Tough words of wisdom.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Tough words of wisdom.

Nothing to stop the primary in the Great Lakes from cutting with the strong -PNA/+AO pattern. The only options this winter have been cutter, hugger, or suppressed southern stream. The benchmark track continues to be elusive.

28688F43-97AC-4D2B-88F5-96D8E4EA25F7.thumb.png.20c0cd061bf5090c94a294d0f9833253.png

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nothing to stop the primary in the Great Lakes from cutting with the strong -PNA/+AO pattern. The only options this winter have been cutter, hugger, or suppressed southern stream. The benchmark track continues to be elusive.

009EDF2F-D842-4053-8B7C-FD5E850750B4.thumb.png.08b86f306363eb9a97c5202a3772a554.png

Bad post.  We’ve gotten plenty of moderate storms with bad indicies or teleconnections. It’s just random that we haven’t gotten a benchmark storm.

If you want to argue that the pattern hasn’t been conducive for KU storms, sure, but that’s not remotely the reason for the goose egg.

  • Haha 2
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nothing to stop the primary in the Great Lakes from cutting with the strong -PNA/+AO pattern. The only options this winter have been cutter, hugger, or suppressed southern stream. The benchmark track continues to be elusive.

28688F43-97AC-4D2B-88F5-96D8E4EA25F7.thumb.png.20c0cd061bf5090c94a294d0f9833253.png

 

It's a cutter with development. The transfer is key.

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Bad post.  We’ve gotten plenty of moderate storms with bad indicies or teleconnections. It’s just random that we haven’t gotten a benchmark storm.

If you want to argue that the pattern hasn’t been conducive for KU storms, sure, but that’s not remotely the reason for the goose egg.

Who said anything about moderate storms? The coast will have p-type issues with such strong WAA aloft coupled with low level cold air with that Arctic high. Seasonal patterns matter until they change. That is why the blockbuster all heavy snow KU hasn’t happened for the coast yet this season. Maybe we can change the pattern enough to make that a possibility before the season is over.

 

  • Like 3
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, bluewave said:

Who said anything about moderate storms? The coast will have p-type issues with such strong WAA aloft coupled with low level cold air with that Arctic high. Seasonal patterns matter until they change. That is why the blockbuster all heavy snow KU hasn’t happened for the coast yet this season. Maybe we can change the pattern enough to make that a possibility before the season is over.

 

Looks like a classic snow to rain for next week's storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, bluewave said:

We need more than that to reach normal seasonal snowfall for the season. Hopefully, we can get some improvements in the pattern before the season is over.

Looks like a stormy pattern is going to develop. It's going to be tough to reach normal but 1 storm can do it for our area.

A little snow Monday and maybe a few inches before the rain on Wednesday.

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nothing to stop the primary in the Great Lakes from cutting with the strong -PNA/+AO pattern. The only options this winter have been cutter, hugger, or suppressed southern stream. The benchmark track continues to be elusive.

28688F43-97AC-4D2B-88F5-96D8E4EA25F7.thumb.png.20c0cd061bf5090c94a294d0f9833253.png

 

This is a cutter with secondary coastal development.  The Lakes piece is going to do some sort of cut no matter what.  Energy transfer to the coastal and cold air supply/wedge due to HP in eastern Canada to me are as important as the primary.  Some confluence helps here.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Looks like a stormy pattern is going to develop. It's going to be tough to reach normal but 1 storm can do it for our area.

A little snow Monday and maybe a few inches before the rain on Wednesday.

There are just so many competing influences thrown together this winter. It’s like one giant interference pattern. 

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

you cannot group a storm by type (i.e. cutter, hugger, etc) and automatically predict the outcome (all rain, all snow etc.). Clearly the coast with have p-type issues, but predicting that high (one of the better placements so far this season) is just as important.  The winter may bust from the blockbuster some of the hype mongers were predicting, but for the first time in a while, we have snow chances...we are all here to track winter storms and in the next three weeks, we should have some to track...it’s a win at this point 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, bluewave said:

But energy transfer isn’t going to halt the WAA above the surface created by a stronger primary. The result could be a nasty mixed event like the Euro is showing. 

It depends how strong the lakes cutter is going to  be. The weaker the better for us.

Still some time to iron this out

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be strong enough to cause P-Type issues along the coast and even perhaps to our north with strong CAD and WAA above the deck.

Also important to see how early and strong the initial wave of snowy precip comes in (sometimes can be undermodeled).  Hopefully its similar to the November storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...