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February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread


Stormlover74
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51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You know it’s a warm pattern in February when NYC reaches 50 degrees at 10 am. That is a 9 degree temperature jump in only 2 hours.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Knyc

we'll likely over-perform all week.   Have to say it feels great-the stronger sun angle is already evident....

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2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Had to deuce this morning for frost at JFK. It was ironic given the hazy sunny morning that developed quickly.

I'm going to hope that is deice. I mean I typically drop a deuce in the morning, but usually the frost plays no roll in my deucing ability. I have heard though that rapid pressure drops can cause pregnant women to go into lab. Where do you typically fly to or everywhere?

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We should definitely see overperforming temps away from the water this week. But closer to the water spring type seabreezes will kick in mid morning. The difference in “feel” from my house on the SS and the city is pretty incredible. 

Moving forward winter comes back this weekend. But the pattern isn’t condusive for big snows along the coast. At least not yet. We could see an advisory type event next week, but we need to work on the -PNA

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The MJO going into phases 7 and 8 might not be what people think it is when there’s a weak stratospheric polar vortex like we have. Check this out: 

 

Also, looks like the AO is going positive, the SSW did not workout as planned. From Dr. Butler: 

 

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

if the trough ends up like that, we'll have a bunch of cutters.  No Atl Blocking is really killing us this year.

There hasn’t been any semblance of Atlantic blocking since November nor does it look like any will be forming through mid month and beyond 

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9 minutes ago, TwcMan said:

According to this, the AO will trend back to neutral/negative territory by the middle of the month. I’m more concerned about what the pacific does over the Atlantic. EPO can stay negative, with the PNA rising to neutral territory by the middle of February.

EF7F095D-ECF8-4325-873F-972720273A42.gif

78070104-C64D-41B8-8EEE-344D6A846101.png

Look at the WPO, that’s what has been driving the raging PAC jet. It’s strong ++WPO and getting stronger throughout the period 

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