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February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread


Stormlover74
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10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

GFS

1st storm misses the major cities to the north and then the 2nd storm hits the Mid Atlantic. Can't make this stuff up

toss the 2m temps w/ that thu-fri system. would be ice just outside the city up into new england for a good part of it.

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2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Team Torch seems to be having a good old time with the developments of this "winter".  You guys are in all your glory with this ratter, eh?

Honestly, I'm ready for Spring. Going to Tampa for a week in early March (when it'll probably snow here) and I'm already there mentally. 

Team Torch hasn’t had much torch, though I don’t think we’re as heartbroken as the snow weenies. This winter hasn’t delivered much on any front.

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

 Gfs is stormy with cold air around. Not a bad run

Don't fall into this trap but do keep an eye on the MJO forecasts.

If the EPS MJO is correct then there'll be hope for a wintry window, however we know how erratic these forecasts have been to date. 

Best to take it day by day.

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2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

When the going gets tuff the tuff get going. 3’ solid pack at my Vermont house right now. It’s been a great winter 150 miles north of NYC. I still think we score later in February. But every time it snows in DC it’s a real kick while down.

Same with our place in the Adirondacks.  Not all bad years here are good there, but this is a year where driving north brings you pretty quickly into a deep wintry landscape.  The upcoming week doesnt even look that bad at that latitude.

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25 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

When the going gets tuff the tuff get going. 3’ solid pack at my Vermont house right now. It’s been a great winter 150 miles north of NYC. I still think we score later in February. But every time it snows in DC it’s a real kick while down.

I work with teachers who commute in from the Lehigh valley and they have had enough snow that the kids are of snow days. It’s about an hour and 20 mins from here

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there have been nine winters that produced less than 10" of seasonal snowfall since 1868-69...1996-97 had exactly 10"...I lived through five of these winters...here they are by the numbers...

season.....snowfall...1" snowfalls...

1972-73........2.8"........1.8"

2001-02........3.5"........3.0"

1918-19........3.8"........1.3" 1.4"

1931-32........5.3"........2.0" 1.1"

1997-98........5.5"........5.0"

2011-12........7.4"........4.3" 2.9"

1877-78........8.1"........8.0"

1988-89........8.1"........5.0" 2.6"

1900-01........9.1"........1.8" 4.0" 1.5"

.......................................................

season.....ave temp/relative to decade coldest temp...

1972-73........35.8........33.7....................7

2001-02........41.5........35.2....................19

1918-19........36.6........32.0....................10

1931-32........40.1........34.0....................15

1997-98........39.6........36.4....................14

2011-12........40.5........36.6....................13

1877-78........33.3........31.5....................7

1988-89........35.9........34.9....................5

1900-01........31.7........32.0....................4

................................................................

season.....precipitation ...

1972-73........15.17"

2001-02..........4.91"

1918-19........10.96"

1931-32..........9.59"

1997-98........15.28"

2011-12..........8.60"

1877-78..........8.89"

1988-89..........6.45"

1900-01..........4.22"

..............................................................................

1972-73 had the least amount of snowfall with above average precipitation...Mild/wet...

2001-02 was second with very little precipitation...It was the warmest winter on record...Mild/dry...

1918-19 was third withy two 1" March snowfalls...precipitation was slightly below...Mild...

1931-32 was fourth and was the second warmest ever...2" snow in November...Mild/dry...

1997-98 was wet and mild...5" March snowfall...wettest of them all...Mild/wet

2011-12 similar to 2001-02 but with an October snowstorm...

1877-78 had one snowstorm...was milder than the 1870's average...Dry as well...Mild/dry

1988-89 had two snowfalls over 2"...was very dry...was milder than the 1980's average...mild/dry...

1900-01 had three 1" snowfalls...was colder than the 1900's average...was the driest...cold/

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1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

I work with teachers who commute in from the Lehigh valley and they have had enough snow that the kids are of snow days. It’s about an hour and 20 mins from here

Allentown currently has 15.2" on the season, which certainly isn't anything spectacular. I don't think the number of snow days really tells the story in all cases.

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49 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Eps looks great from the 11th onward.

This might be the real deal if the woo cooperates and the mjo go into the favorable phase.

We’ve seen this show before a bunch of times this winter from the EPS, it’s one run so far. Let’s see if it actually holds or not this time and advances forward. I’m not holding my breath

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

the eps has been showing a dream pattern since december. polar blocking with a pac jet undercutting the cold

Sadly that has not translated to any significant snowfall for us NYC residents. Should we expect the balance of winter to be any different?

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3 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

Allentown currently has 15.2" on the season, which certainly isn't anything spectacular. I don't think the number of snow days really tells the story in all cases.

More than us....15 inches would be enough if it came in two or three shots to blow our district's snow days. Many used one for the cold already. 

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4 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Sadly that has not translated to any significant snowfall for us NYC residents. Should we expect the balance of winter to be any different?

The best bet would be to assume more of the same except for an oddball storm that may pop up and give us 3-5 before it rains. Based on nothing more than pulling it out of my....

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The severe Arctic outbreak that established all time record low temperatures in parts of the Great Lakes region and set record lows in some areas in the Middle Atlantic region is now in the past. Milder air is moving into the East.

Given where things stand and the likely idea that February will feature neutral-warm to very weak El Niño conditions, seasonal snowfall prospects in and around New York City are lower than what once seemed to be the case. My current thinking is that New York City will likely finish with total seasonal snowfall of 15"-25". There's perhaps a one-in-three probability (based on historical data) for more than 25" snow for winter 2018-19.

Since 1869-70, there have been 63 cases when total snowfall through January was less than 10". Mean snowfall for the remainder of the snow season was 13.4" and median snowfall was 10.2". 51% of those cases saw less than 10" snow for the remainder of the snow season; 25% saw 20" or more; 10% saw 25" or more; and, 5% saw 30" or more. Winter 2001-02 saw no measurable snow through the remainder of the snow season. Winter 1895-96 picked up 43.3". There were 3 winters when 30" or more snow fell during the remainder of snow season. All three had 3.5" or more additional snow through February 15 and 4.5" or more additional snow through February 20. The last winter that saw 30" or more snow for February through April was winter 1915-16 when 41.9" snow fell.

From that set of 63 cases, there were 5 winters that featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies between +0.20°C and +0.70°C in February with less than 10" snow through January 31. Mean snowfall for the remainder of the snow season for those cases was 9.4" and median snowfall was 7.3". The least snowfall was a trace in 2001-02. The most was 22.6" during winter 1992-93.

The SOI was -3.84 today. With the MJO's moving into Phase 7 with an amplitude > 1.500, the SOI turned negative. At a low amplitude (< 1.000), the historical tendency has been almost evenly split.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.810. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.354.

On February 1, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.546 (RMM). That amplitude had fallen from the January 31-adjusted figure of 1.720.

There remains uncertainty about the MJO's progression. However, the guidance has come into somewhat better agreement with a scenario where the MJO's amplitude would begin to decline and then it would head for Phase 6. It could still reach Phase 6 before returning to Phase 7. Whether or not the MJO falls to a low amplitude before that happens remains uncertain. The EPS is currently portraying a more favorable transition to Phase 8.

Phase 6 at a high amplitude and Phase 7 at low amplitude typically favor a positive AO. As a result, the AO will likely continue to rise in the coming days. There is strong ensemble consensus for this rise.

For now, there remains some possibility of a short period where the AO would reach positive values. Reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the MJO's progression beyond 120 hours, there's a split among ensemble members when it comes to the extended range AO forecast.

A strong warmup is now in the early stages of its evolution. Much of the coming week will likely feature above to much above normal readings in the region. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that the February 1-7 average temperature in New York City will be above normal despite the cold start to the month. Colder air should return during next weekend.

There remains a possibility that a predominantly colder than normal regime could then lock in for at least a 2-3 week period, especially as the EPO is expected to go negative and blocking could either redevelop or restrengthen.

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