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WxUSAF

January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA

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Eps generally agrees with the op. Keep in mind these are 10-1 not Kuchera. Odd to see that little finger on the control and eps in general agreement. Usually meso features like that won’t be consistent. 

A56B415E-2C0A-4450-8F2C-3965EB92A146.thumb.png.4c56f472b21b69b3129974f8f99a4577.pngFCC1A4B6-988F-4364-A44B-E2849B460574.thumb.png.83613dbab3b26e110194f77b2d733857.png

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LWX 2:58

 

The second complicated period will be during the afternoon and 

evening as the cold front crosses the area. Due to the sharp 

temperature gradient and a secondary area of low pressure 

forming along the front in Virginia, precipitation is likely to 

persist in the cold air for a few hours before ending by late 

Tuesday evening. So rain will be changing to snow, which could 

be briefly intense and overwhelm relatively warm surface 

temperatures. While this looks like an advisory level event with 

respect to snow amounts, it could have a high impact as the 

transition could occur during the evening rush hour in the Metro 

corridor. Then as temperatures crash, any residual moisture and 

slush could freeze on roadways during the evening/overnight. 

There is still a good deal of uncertainty regarding the timing blah blah 

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Eps generally agrees with the op. Keep in mind these are 10-1 not Kuchera. Odd to see that little finger on the control and eps in general agreement. Usually meso features like that won’t be consistent. 

A56B415E-2C0A-4450-8F2C-3965EB92A146.thumb.png.4c56f472b21b69b3129974f8f99a4577.pngFCC1A4B6-988F-4364-A44B-E2849B460574.thumb.png.83613dbab3b26e110194f77b2d733857.png

Damn...I'm gonna miss this one to tour an f'ing egg farm in Connecticut....blech

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NAM looks similar to the Euro with the precip max through DC and north and an inch out this way. I think the models are coming around to an agreement at this point.

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

18z NAM at 4pm.  ~0.25" qpf falls after that in the DC metro area.

 

202374180_2019012718_NAM_051_38.91-77.16_severe_ml.thumb.png.bf242f5cbea39c6eab4741436149ac3e.png

That looks like great omega in the DGZ?  Or am I reading that wrong?

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

That looks like great omega in the DGZ?  Or am I reading that wrong?

We'd want the peak omegas a little higher.

Here's the 3km from TT

 

download.thumb.png.46787105405075e1850842b4ec8d1b14.png

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Wow, that's a great sounding for SN+.

Rippin' fatties on that 3k sounding.

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1 hour ago, Hurricanegiants said:

LWX 2:58

 

The second complicated period will be during the afternoon and 

evening as the cold front crosses the area. Due to the sharp 

temperature gradient and a secondary area of low pressure 

forming along the front in Virginia, precipitation is likely to 

persist in the cold air for a few hours before ending by late 

Tuesday evening. So rain will be changing to snow, which could 

be briefly intense and overwhelm relatively warm surface 

temperatures. While this looks like an advisory level event with 

respect to snow amounts, it could have a high impact as the 

transition could occur during the evening rush hour in the Metro 

corridor. Then as temperatures crash, any residual moisture and 

slush could freeze on roadways during the evening/overnight. 

There is still a good deal of uncertainty regarding the timing blah blah 

Ok that may be one of the only flash freeze scenarios that might have a real chance of verifying.  

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Rippin' fatties on that 3k sounding.

 

11 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Wow, that's a great sounding for SN+.

 

And right at 5pm for maximum impact.

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2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Can somebody give me their take on what temp will be at BWI for Tues 6pm, wed 6am, wed 6pm and thurs 6am

thanks 

www.nws.noaa.gov

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8 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Not really...more defined system and most areas got over 6” with that 

If we get area wide SN+ between 3-6 pm and it’s 40 degrees at noon. I guarantee it will wreak havoc

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3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

If we get area wide SN+ between 3-6 pm and it’s 40 degrees at noon. I guarantee it will wreak havoc

I’m not saying it won’t wreak any havoc I’m just saying I don’t think it’s that comparable of a system in my opinion 

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The updated LWX snowfall map pretty closes follows the 18Z GFS. 1-2 near the cities with a bit more N/W in the usual spots. 

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47 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

dang. Not quite sure why this front doesn't seem to want to work out for Central VA but it really does not. 3K NAM straight blanked me. Still time to change.

No doubt man, not getting the fropa love down here in Cville

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If that is the scenario we end up with on Tuesday (SN+ around rush hour) I hope the city school system has the good sense to close early. Otherwise the afternoon run around to pick up the kids is going to be a cluster. 

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34 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

If we get area wide SN+ between 3-6 pm and it’s 40 degrees at noon. I guarantee it will wreak havoc

Agree.  Ground is warm but not crazy warm.  Has t been 50-60 for a week.  Mostly Every night has been below freezing 

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