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January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA


WxUSAF
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1 hour ago, Hurricanegiants said:

LWX 2:58

 

The second complicated period will be during the afternoon and 

evening as the cold front crosses the area. Due to the sharp 

temperature gradient and a secondary area of low pressure 

forming along the front in Virginia, precipitation is likely to 

persist in the cold air for a few hours before ending by late 

Tuesday evening. So rain will be changing to snow, which could 

be briefly intense and overwhelm relatively warm surface 

temperatures. While this looks like an advisory level event with 

respect to snow amounts, it could have a high impact as the 

transition could occur during the evening rush hour in the Metro 

corridor. Then as temperatures crash, any residual moisture and 

slush could freeze on roadways during the evening/overnight. 

There is still a good deal of uncertainty regarding the timing blah blah 

Ok that may be one of the only flash freeze scenarios that might have a real chance of verifying.  

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34 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

If we get area wide SN+ between 3-6 pm and it’s 40 degrees at noon. I guarantee it will wreak havoc

Agree.  Ground is warm but not crazy warm.  Has t been 50-60 for a week.  Mostly Every night has been below freezing 

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18z tuesday is interesting on the soundings. 18z gfs is a little too warm up through about 925mb. 3k nam is a good bit colder at the same time.

Gfs:

1Cf4IRd.png

 

3k:

CLcazFM.png

 

The only thing standing in the way from maximizing this event is boundary conditions  up to 925mb or so at onset. Gfs shaved 2 degrees off the lower column from 12z but still too warm. I really like the 3k's sounding... so I'll be hugging that for now until something better comes along.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

 

18z tuesday is interesting on the soundings. 18z gfs is a little too warm up through about 925mb. 3k nam is a good bit colder at the same time.

Gfs:

3k:

The only thing standing in the way from maximizing this event is boundary conditions  up to 925mb or so at onset. Gfs shaved 2 degrees off the lower column from 12z but still too warm. I really like the 3k's sounding... so I'll be hugging that for now until something better comes along.

Besides the weenie handbook, I’d almost always go with the 3k over the GFS with getting BL temps correct.  

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