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January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA


WxUSAF
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20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Given the difference in climo, its probably proportionally the same, maybe worse for you. Average snowfall here is 18-19", and I am at 6.4" thus far. A couple warning level events or one biggie and I am in the black.

By those numbers you are slightly ahead of me wrt climo but we’re both bad and 6” is still 6”. 

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30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Was 25 and snowing steadily when I left home. 30 and nada when I got to work in West Baltimore. A little piece of my soul dies everytime I leave snow to go to a place that is getting less. Oh the sacrifice!

West Baltimore? Watch out for the falling bullets 

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1 minute ago, BigCountry said:

The email came directly from OPM....because their app and their website do not reflect the information you are providing?

 

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

 

I deleted my post until it shows on the website.

 

I am now intrigued, someone somewhere sent an email, which means in some backroom at OPM some decision maybe has been made and it has not been put on website yet?   

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34 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wonder if it's the southeast wind hitting Parrs Ridge.  Seems like once the precip moves into Howard or Baltimore it fades out.

It is. Perfect upslope trajectory. If I can maintain a cold enough profile a SE wind can dump. Got 12” in 3 hours from such an upslope enhanced band on the front side of the Feb 10 2010 storm when the primary was still to the west with a SE flow. 

That kind of thing is rare because it’s hard to get a strong SE flow and not wreck the temps. That storm wouldn’t have lasted much longer if the transfer didn’t happen. I was starting to mix with sleet after that 3 hour thump when the storm jumped and the WAA cut off. 

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3km took a big step back with the positioning and strength of the jet max over PA. Precip field was sliced, coupled with more marginal boundary layer temperatures, the end result is now in line with the HRRR. That was not a step in the right direction for the event. Still showing snow across the region by rush hour, but given the warming of temps above freezing all the way into southern PA, it would take longer for accumulation to occur. Lift through the DGZ is no where near as prolific either due to the lack of sufficient jet streak dynamics. 

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

3km took a big step back with the positioning and strength of the jet max over PA. Precip field was sliced, coupled with more marginal boundary layer temperatures, the end result is now in line with the HRRR. That was not a step in the right direction for the event. Still showing snow across the region by rush hour, but given the warming of temps above freezing all the way into southern PA, it would take longer for accumulation to occur. Lift through the DGZ is no where near as prolific either due to the lack of sufficient jet streak dynamics. 

Yikes... let's hope the 3k NAM and HRRR are wrong.

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4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

3km took a big step back with the positioning and strength of the jet max over PA. Precip field was sliced, coupled with more marginal boundary layer temperatures, the end result is now in line with the HRRR. That was not a step in the right direction for the event. Still showing snow across the region by rush hour, but given the warming of temps above freezing all the way into southern PA, it would take longer for accumulation to occur. Lift through the DGZ is no where near as prolific either due to the lack of sufficient jet streak dynamics. 

But the NAM jumps back and forth like this.  18z wet, 0z was dry, 6z wet, 12z dry.   How do you know which run is correct. Yea it’s tempting to go with the latest but I’ve seen the NAM drastically cut qpf right at game time and be wrong before too. Don’t get me wrong I’m not dismissing a fryer weaker solution, I’ve kinda expected that all along. But the NAM itself seems useless in determining which way it will go. 

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I do think people in Baltimore and dc proper are going to be disappointed unless we get some better lift than the models are showing today. Light spotty precip isn’t going to overcome any sort of SE flow ahead of an “approaching” low. Anything is possible and it wouldn’t be the first time models all got it wrong.   

NJ NY and the NE has a better chance at this one than we do. They just have more time for the cold air to settle and they’ll have better dynamics to work with. Looking like warning level snowfalls are possible by my folks in the Hudson valley. They deserve it. They’ve been snubbed all year.

My alma mater, buffalo, Is about to get smoked by a classic WSW Erie wind . I have serious FOMO about the snowfall they are about to see. Temps in the single digits with huge fluffy flakes and 12-18” in 16 hours time. Southtowns will likely see 2 feet within 24 hours. What a sight to see. 

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