AU74 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Did anyone seriously think that giving the Euro two more chances a day to say no would be an improvement ? So, if we get rid of it altogether, we get more snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Hrrr been consistently showing light snow breaking out around sunrise in central Md. Temps in the 20s so immediate stickage for sure . Hopefully a quick inch before the main front energy comes thru . 3k is wicked cold by Wednesday early evening here ..man really strange in that it looks like it's snowing pretty good according to the reflectivity, but there is no precip accumulated. Looking at the soundings, it's insanely dry in the low levels, so I guess it's virga, but it seems odd that it would snow decently for a few hours and never reach the ground. It's also surprising that the HRRR takes much of the area into the low 40s during the early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, high risk said: really strange in that it looks like it's snowing pretty good according to the reflectivity, but there is no precip accumulated. Looking at the soundings, it's insanely dry in the low levels, so I guess it's virga, but it seems odd that it would snow decently for a few hours and never reach the ground. It's also surprising that the HRRR takes much of the area into the low 40s during the early afternoon. Seems doubly odd because virga would bring down temps via mixing, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Several degrees colder than the low forecasted tonight over here north of shepherdstown. 25.7. Expecting a light dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ji said: 18z euro maps should be banned unless they show more snow. Please stop showing them if they drier than 12z I wish the euro didn't add off hour runs. Being serious too. I had a hunch it would add to confusion instead of adding value. Nothing specifc to this event because 12 & 18z are basically identical. Gfs should ditch off hour runs and the money that's saved should be used to improve the model. Isn't the nam supposed to start running hourly sometime soon? Could you just imagine an hourly nam out to 84 hours... oh man would this place a disaster. 24 consecutive nam hours daily... 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Seems doubly odd because virga would bring down temps via mixing, no? yes, but the HRRR warming occurs after the precip shuts off edit: and as expected, with that warm afternoon, the temperatures barely drop in time to give us a pity amount of wet snow at the end of the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Gfs should ditch off hour runs and the money that's saved should be used to improve the model. Isn't the nam supposed to start running hourly sometime soon? Could you just imagine an hourly nam out to 84 hours... oh man would this place a disaster. 24 consecutive nam hours daily... That would literally break this board, but the plan to run the NAM in hourly rapid refresh mode was scrapped many months ago. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, high risk said: That would literally break this board, but the plan to run the NAM in hourly rapid refresh mode was scrapped many months ago. That's very good news... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, wxtrix said: and after all of that, the WWA is extended west, lol. I think that the short range models showing the early precipitation breaking out in the northern tier has them worried. The advisory for them (and you) begins at 4AM while the rest of the area doesn't start until noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 6 hours ago, Bob Chill said: The highly technical NAM pattern says 0z will suck, 6z will be good, 12z will be a disaster, and 18z will be a flush hit. On the dot with the first one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: On the dot with the first one I like the nam 3k soundings for my yard. 35 and all snow at onset then drops to 33 with decent snowgrowth from 18z onwards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I like the nam 3k soundings for my yard. 35 and all snow at onset then drops to 33 with decent snowgrowth from 18z onwards. This will overperform for you Bob. I can feel it. I feel like I will underperform and it will be a disappointment. I tell my wife that and it often comes true. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Colder than guidance. 26 here in Westminster and models around 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I'm out, the NAM and HRRR are disastrous and the Euro isn't much better. Hopefully we can get an overperformer friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, Woodbridge02 said: I'm out, the NAM and HRRR are disastrous and the Euro isn't much better. Hopefully we can get an overperformer friday. For you or the entire forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 It’s 27 right now, you have to think that means something. I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Is there something going on with the temperatures on these models? I noticed last night my area got to 24 degrees last night, the forecast was 29. Tonight my low was 28 and I'm already at 24. I guess maybe it's just the time of year for temps being lower than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, lpaschall said: For you or the entire forum? Looks like most of the forum, from tonight's models the best case scenario is a sloppy inch. The 00z HRRR was actually all rain in DC and Baltimore and mostly rain all the way up to the Mason Dixon line. Not much precip either. The NAM did have an isolated 2" band through Rockville into the IAD area but for the rest of the forum was a coating or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 At this point, I’m not sure models will really give us any more than we already know. They won’t be exact. We just need to see what happens tomorrow and hope for the best! I’m more curious to see if we really get much rain or just flip to snow. Que sera sera... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 The NAM also says I should be 34 right now when I am actually at 27*. NWS says a low of 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Seems like temperatures are substantially lower than what models are showing area wide. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I think people are over analyzing temps a little. Yes they may be running colder right now but they may likely rise a little overnight. That will balance it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 From living here for a while, there’s a one thing that usually holds true. Cold fronts rarely, if ever, bring significant snow along the 81 corridor. This is just not a scenario in which we do well out here.The famed squall line from a few years ago that brought a decent snow east of here brought about a ten minute burst of snow here. Tomorrow I fully expect to see a very short period of light snow, perhaps enough to put a dusting on everything, 1/2” or less. I also expect to see the radar bloom just on the other side of the blue ridge and give a general 1-3” snow to the areas north and east of Winchester. We might get a surprise out here but I think it wise to prepare for a disappointing winter weather event out here. The only way I could see a better outcome is if the front slowed a bit as it passes. Still, I view this one with very skeptical eyes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: More Legit squall line Wednesday with 45 mph gusts per nam ...Wed looking more interesting each run it seems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: From living here for a while, there’s a one thing that usually holds true. Cold fronts rarely, if ever, bring significant snow along the 81 corridor. This is just not a scenario in which we do well out here.The famed squall line from a few years ago that brought a decent snow east of here brought about a ten minute burst of snow here. Tomorrow I fully expect to see a very short period of light snow, perhaps enough to put a dusting on everything, 1/2” or less. I also expect to see the radar bloom just on the other side of the blue ridge and give a general 1-3” snow to the areas north and east of Winchester. We might get a surprise out here but I think it wise to prepare for a disappointing winter weather event out here. The only way I could see a better outcome is if the front slowed a bit as it passes. Still, I view this one with very skeptical eyes. I agree. We are done. And most of the guidance agrees with both of us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I don't like what the most recent runs are showing. Maybe @psuhoffman was right.... glad he warned us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 The RAP loves Parr's Ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I agree. We are done. And most of the guidance agrees with both of us. We still have the HRRR 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 36 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I think people are over analyzing temps a little. Yes they may be running colder right now but they may likely rise a little overnight. That will balance it out. What feature would cause temps to rise overnight? It’s currently 27 with no wind clear skies and a dew in the mid teens where i am. Not asking to stir controversy just curious 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: What feature would cause temps to rise overnight? It’s currently 27 with no wind clear skies and a dew in the mid teens where i am. Not asking to stir controversy just curious My P&C graph shows my temp rising slowly from 29 now to 32 by daybreak. Hitting 40 by 18z. Will be interesting tomorrow to see if I hit 40 or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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