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January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA


WxUSAF
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2 hours ago, high risk said:

Love the line of snow squalls on the arctic front midday Wednesday on the 18z NAM nest.    Forecast soundings show impressive low and mid-level lapse rates!

I do like the thin slither of positive CAPE showing up above the -20C line on skew-t soundings. Assuming that the snow squall potential is realized, then perhaps the T word and S word combo make an appearance in some spots?... Just thinking out loud.

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21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I like how the Maryland DOTs are wasting taxpayer money with bringing when it's going to start as a mix or rain (I-95 east) for a time.

Had the same thought driving around today. 

My yard is frozen solid and even though it got above freezing today it stayed pretty frozen all day. This airmass is not that bad for an event like this. It's not like we're going to top out in the mid-forties tomorrow and have to wetbulb down in order to get a changover. If it's cloudy all day temps won't get out of the mid-thirties even east of 95 imo. Once it changes over it's gonna stick. 

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16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I like how the Maryland DOTs are wasting taxpayer money with bringing when it's going to start as a mix or rain (I-95 east) for a time.

According to them it costs like less than $2 a mile so it’s rather inexpensive and is worth it to them. That’s what they say anyway 

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Just now, DSF said:

Harford County the first system around here to call for a delay. 

Yeah, of course my opinion doesn’t matter but I would have waited till morning to see how the morning stuff materialized as it’s a little unclear. Either way just a delay wouldn’t make much sense as mid afternoon would get dicey again, so probably will end up just closing tomorrow morning 

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2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

They all have the same general idea of the precip not getting its act together until it is east of the area though. The GFS' have much more energy overhead as the front comes through.

Ehh, I'd say RGEM is on its own.  The others all get at least an 1" in DC.  Agree that GFS is the most bullish...I just want to see snow falling.

ETA:  Even the HRDRPS gets 1-2"+ in DC/NVA.  

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