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January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA


WxUSAF
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6 minutes ago, paxpatriot said:

Glad I'm not the only one confused on that one.

Zone forecasts have 1-3" for HGR and MRB, and around an inch for OKV.  So with less than 2" being a possibility, that would preclude the WWA.  Probably should stick with the ZFP's and disregard the point-and-click. 

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2 hours ago, mappy said:

for all the complaining you have done about missing out on snow, you'd think you'd be happy with what you end up getting. but what do i know.

this place has turned into a super duper negative place to be right now. and frankly, its not fun. good luck with your 1-2", hopefully you get more. 

Happy Hour it is

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10 minutes ago, high risk said:

Love the line of snow squalls on the arctic front midday Wednesday on the 18z NAM nest.    Forecast soundings show impressive low and mid-level lapse rates!

How well does the nest do on these types of forecasts with extreme lapse rates ? Thanks 

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30 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Which is telling.  

This is not a way we score out here, especially me.  My guess is up to an inch north of OKV, and mood flakes - at best - for me.

Nope. Euro shuts me out too. And that is what I expect. It is what it is. Just feel stupid for tracking this mess for a week.

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17 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Zone forecasts have 1-3" for HGR and MRB, and around an inch for OKV.  So with less than 2" being a possibility, that would preclude the WWA.  Probably should stick with the ZFP's and disregard the point-and-click. 

I would think with the timing being mid-afternoon and rush hour, that would impact the advisory.

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

How well does the nest do on these types of forecasts with extreme lapse rates ? Thanks 

          this is the type of event in which resolution and explicit convection (as opposed to a convective scheme) will help a lot, so the NAM nest forecast may be legit.

 

12 minutes ago, yoda said:

Also note the extreme omega in the DGZ per the soundings as well.  I have that right, yes?

           yes, but it's so narrow and fast-moving that I'm not thinking in terms of accumulations.   It's more of a deal with potential quick reductions in visibility and then freezing of snow on the ground if enough falls to cover surfaces.

 

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

          this is the type of event in which resolution and explicit convection (as opposed to a convective scheme) will help a lot, so the NAM nest forecast may be legit.

 

           yes, but it's so narrow and fast-moving that I'm not thinking in terms of accumulations.   It's more of a deal with potential quick reductions in visibility and then freezing of snow on the ground if enough falls to cover surfaces.

 

If the Nest is correct would that possibly warrant using / issuing  the new NWS tool regarding squall warnings ?

Thamks !   

 

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Point and click from NWS has OKV with 1-2" tomorrow; MRB with 1-3" and HGR with 2-4".  None of these sites are under the WWA.


Little surprised at the lack of WWA for your area and north, but I guarantee that might change tonight with one more round of data and solidifying the projected totals. CTP and LWX probably collaborated together and with WPC to delay the issuance of anything until the 0z suite. That’s my guess.


.
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18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 


Little surprised at the lack of WWA for your area and north, but I guarantee that might change tonight with one more round of data and solidifying the projected totals. CTP and LWX probably collaborated together and with WPC to delay the issuance of anything until the 0z suite. That’s my guess.


.

 

:thumbsup:

8 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

i guess we don’t qualify for the rush hour option, lol.

lol, I guess not.  Given the increase in traffic congestion along I-81 these past few years, they might want to rethink that.

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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I’d maybe agree but the rush hour aspect of it probably warrants a WWA for the entire CWA.

 

30 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

i guess we don’t qualify for the rush hour option, lol.

Trixie's correct... the LWX WWA "1 inch at Rush Hour" criteria is only for the areas that are currently under it. 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE OF  60% OR HIGHER OF ONE INCH OF SNOW AND
SLEET FOR BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON COMMUTING AREAS.
•MORNING RUSH…4AM TO 9AM OR EVENING RUSH…2PM TO
7 PM.
• WEEKDAYS THAT DO NOT FALL ON FEDERAL HOLIDAYS.
• INCLUDES ALL OR PORTIONS OF INTERSTATES
95...695…495…83…70…270…AND 66. (MAP ON NEXT SLIDE
FOR DETAILS)

WWA.JPG.da82cfe68d63926e4a3b2f1daee985fd.JPG


I guess no where else commutes to work.

 

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4 minutes ago, Woodbridge02 said:

The NAMs, ICON, and Euro are not total shutouts though. Maybe in the coating to 2" range for DC

They all have the same general idea of the precip not getting its act together until it is east of the area though. The GFS' have much more energy overhead as the front comes through.

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57 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Very nice gfs run, Montgomery county 3 inches.  DC almost gets the good stuff. 

I see that.  What I see is some mixing until after 15Z.  Then, a narrow corridor of moisture sets up from the GOM to New England.  I see training, as if the same moisture feed is nearly stationary for 3 to 6 hours as the column cools.  Good times a-coming.

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

They all have the same general idea of the precip not getting its act together until it is east of the area though. The GFS' have much more energy overhead as the front comes through.

I think what the models are really telling us is the setup is not in their wheelhouse.  They are giving us the knowledge that a front is coming through and it’s going to be more interesting than a typical FROPA.  But trying to pinpoint who sees nothing vs something vs something good is just not going to be settled until it happens or it doesn’t.  

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