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January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA


WxUSAF
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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Considering this year has been an epic disaster start to finish along I95 north of MD, the way I look at it is ANY snow is a true gift. Tomorrow will literally be only our 4th legit chance at accum snow and it will probably work out in some fashion. 3 out of 4 is pretty damn good for our region. If Friday works out it will be 4 out of 5 chances in a winter where the pattern has been awful and the chances are few and far between. We could very easily have been under 10" for the year everywhere in our sub. It's like the best total sh!tshow ratter I've ever seen. 

ETA: I was only counting met winter. If you include the Nov snow then it's another in the win column. Our area generally needs 3-4 chances to get 1 event. Not telling a soul how they should feel but by my calculations our area is doing really well

But I thought our area is generally deep winter every year from December 1st through February 21st...with 20-30 events mostly 6" + or have I been dreaming for the last 52 years?

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5 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

I am just glad to hear upstate NY is getting 6-10 inches out of this one. They need to freshen up that 2 feet of snowpack they already have.

I am too.  know why?  Its their climo to have lots of snow.  You want that then move there

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12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’d maybe agree but the rush hour aspect of it probably warrants a WWA for the entire CWA.

         agree totally with this.    it's also complicated by the NAM and HRRR showing light precip for the *morning* rush hour too, especially north of DC.     Depending on your model of choice, it could be snow, sleet, or freezing rain.

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9 minutes ago, high risk said:

         agree totally with this.    it's also complicated by the NAM and HRRR showing light precip for the *morning* rush hour too, especially north of DC.     Depending on your model of choice, it could be snow, sleet, or freezing rain.

Yeah 16z hrrr has light snow in the corridor at 10z tomorrow morning with temps below freezing.

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This event isn’t gonna get me down. We’re talking about a low in the Great Lakes with a cold front moving through. Boom is based on a low forming at the right place/time along the front before the cold moves in. So even if this only produces a coating, it’s really not a standard way that we get a good snowstorm here.  The Friday event has more upside imo. As for the winter so far, it’s been ok snow-wise due to one storm. The problem is that almost every event has been a rainer.  Not a good winter up to this point, generally speaking, but there’s still time to get this to a B grade.

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25 minutes ago, H2O said:

A frontal passage that will have white rain to start for some and a chance for people to get 1-3" and its the end of the world.   

Everyone is always HECS hunting, but this looks like a fun winter week to me. Multiple light snow events possible, with potential for some heavy bursts within them, and some legit arctic air. 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Everyone is always HECS hunting, but this looks like a fun winter week to me. Multiple light snow events possible, with potential for some heavy bursts within them, and some legit arctic air. 

Yeah I agree. I think some of the earlier Euro runs got people's hopes up for a borderline warning-level event, and I also think the long range outlook at this point combined with the hype coming into the season is, understandably, frustrating people and causing them to look down on an event like this. I'm just going to hope for a thunderstorm type squall line with a short burst of very heavy snow with some whipping winds like we've seen in the past and enjoy that. Anything additional with this will be a bonus for me. It will all be gone next week anyway.

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9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Advisories going out now.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
258 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

MDZ004>006-503-505-507-290400-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0008.190129T1100Z-190130T0200Z/
Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-
258 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Light mixed precipitation is expected during the morning
  and midday hours before becoming all snow in the afternoon.
  Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 9 PM EST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening
  commutes. Temperatures will fall well below freezing during the
  evening, causing any moisture or slush to freeze on untreated
  surfaces.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
258 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

MDZ011-504-506-508-VAZ052-053-501-502-505-506-290400-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0008.190129T1700Z-190130T0300Z/
Southern Baltimore-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
258 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Any rain will change to snow during the afternoon hours.
  Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland and northern
  Virginia.

* WHEN...From noon to 10 PM EST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute.
  Temperatures will fall well below freezing during the evening,
  causing any moisture or slush to freeze on untreated surfaces.
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