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January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA


WxUSAF
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4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am gonna pull a Ji and say the NAM just took away all of my snow. I get zip. NOTHING.

Yea people in the eastern 1/2 of the forum trying to hold on and play “it’s not so bad” but the trends have been on the wall for the western 1/2 of the region for a while. I’ve gone from the heavy precip being west of me to the heavy being east of me over the last 3 days. Snow maps don’t tell the tale locally since temps are an issue 95 east but go back and look at runs 2-3 data ago that gave WV up to State Collegd PA 6”+ and now that area is nothing and the precip max is 95 east. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yea people in the eastern 1/2 of the forum trying to hold on and play “it’s not so bad” but the trends have been on the wall for the western 1/2 of the region for a while. I’ve gone from the heavy precip being west of me to the heavy being east of me over the last 3 days. Snow maps don’t tell the tale locally since temps are an issue 95 east but go back and look at runs 2-3 data ago that gave WV up to State Collegd PA 6”+ and now that area is nothing and the precip max is 95 east. 

Agreed. I hate to keep touting the ICON. But go look at the 6Z Saturday run. That is when it started playing out this scenario and it has stayed that way since then. Still hasnt verified. But if it does nice performance from that model.

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I guess...but that back edge of decent qpf keeps creeping east every run. Those of us west of 95 are running out of room on the cliffs edge. 95 east the problem is temps. 

Fronto! Rates!

lol I have never been too interested in this beyond a quick coating. My official forecast is for an inch. If that verifies I would be thrilled.

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Just now, Fozz said:

Ok... I'm ready for this "east trend" to halt immediately.

Agreed.  My post was in jest to PSU.  The thing that bugs me the most is that when this first came up on the radar, temps were never really issue but the real cold push now isn't until Wednesday.  I fully expect down near me to have 34 and "snow" with a dusting-1" at this point.  I hope I'm wrong but we never do well with cold chasing precip as its usually delayed and in this situation even an hour can screw us.

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44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The trough is going negative tilt with a lot of cross boundary flow and some pretty good forcing. This isn’t a typical front. 

But the waves impacts will be narrow. Somewhere is getting a 3-5” thump from this. But it could be north or northeast of us. That doesn’t mean it failed because it was a “typical front”. This is anything but. 

even w/ it going neg, I'm just not sure I buy a neg tilted frontal boundary getting 2" down.  Sure hope your are right, and while the forcing shown above says maybe, I'll remain skeptical until proven otherwise w/ this one.  Sure hope your right though....believe me.  

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I doubt that morning band is much. Temps are really questionable even up here.  And even if it dropped a quick 1-2” it probably would melt during the lull then the afternoon drops another 1” and the numbers say we got 3” but only 1” otg. I hate that crap. 

If you look at the 3k’s dipiction, the morning band stays in place and just hands off to the actual frontal band. There really isn’t a lull. I doubt temps get much above freezing tomorrow north and west of Baltimore if 3k is right. 

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I think as long as we have low expectations of the FROPA this could be a fun dynamic couple hours tomorrow afternoon and early evening. I still think someone will pick up 3+ inches and some will be wondering “what snow”. Pretty much a nowcast deal to see where the best dynamics set up. 

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Serious question... Do the nams ever add value before precip is on the doorstep? I've grown to hate 24-48 hour nam runs. 

ive seen NAMS really dry with frontal passages type of events...where we get really NAMMED is when there is a a real storm lol

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