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January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA


WxUSAF
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5 minutes ago, digital snow said:

OMG... the ICON, just stop. Fun to look at, but is batting 0for life on every storm since its inception. Gets the right idea sort of, but misses the key outcome every time fwiw

 

That simply isnt true. It has out performed the GFS this year so far. And it has been rock solid with its runs. It hasnt waffled at all in the past 4 runs. If anything it shows the most realistic expectation for this event.

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Even if this ends up as only an inch or so of snow, this is going to be a high-impact event for sure.     With temps falling into the 20s quickly after the precip ends, that covering of snow will freeze quickly and lead to icy streets and sidewalks.    I expect widespread school delays Wednesday morning, with cancellations also possible, especially if the 00z GFS is right with us not getting anywhere near freezing Wednesday.    (Earlier runs and the 00z NAM have us getting to near 30 Wednesday just ahead of the push of the real arctic air.)

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If the gfs is too warm then most or all the precip from nova/dc and north would be snow. Sounding shows the column above 925mb below freezing. Surface is 37-40 around dc/close burbs. Knock 3-5 degrees off of that and it's snow. Gfs might be right but it wouldn't take much for less rain and more snow.  

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14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

QPF bleeding to the east has halted for the time being... now I just need it to go back west a few hundred miles.

gfs-apcpn-neus-fh54-trend.gif

It’s interesting that EZF is around 0.5” of on  latest GFS and the 12z Euro, yet some how CHO is around 0.15” or 0.2” big difference over short area. I’m just not sure the temps will cooperate as much down here around FXBG to present more than maybe 1 inch. Hopefully I’m wrong

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It’s interesting that EZF is around 0.5” of on  latest GFS and the 12z Euro, yet some how CHO is around 0.15” or 0.2” big difference over short area. I’m just not sure the gems will cooperate as much down here around FXBG to present more than maybe 1 inch. Hopefully I’m wrong


It’s definitely interesting. Don’t know if it’s a sort of coastal element taking over or the precip needing time to reform over the mountains. It also seems to not be as cold in Charlottesville.

We’ll see.
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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Fv3 another good run. It's running a lot colder that its brother from what i can tell on ncep. Makes me not trust either. 

Seems like temperature before the front, or how quickly heavy precipitation can cool boundary layer will be the real wild card. Not sure which way to lean, it may be different for all parts of our forum in terms of temps 

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5 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

Seems like temperature before the front, or how quickly heavy precipitation can cool boundary layer will be the real wild card. Not sure which way to lean, it may be different for all parts of our forum in terms of temps 

Yea, this one has been really tough to make a call on. We've been seeing a number of solutions that drop upwards of .50 qpf and the bulk of it is in a relatively short time. Only issue with temps is between the surface up to 2k'. Going to be a lot of thermometer watching tuesday. 

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

eurosnowfall.gif.f8f6d317f85b9bcc87634092c7bb818a.gif

 

eta: EPS Snowfall means were showing the snowfall maxes north and west of the cities but did not show the secondary max over the bay and eastern shore.

Didnt the models have a finger of heaviest snows extending SW from Eastern PA down into DC yesterday? Looks opposite now unless that secondary max is the finger and shifted E?

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Think it was mentioned yesterday on a bulletin but looking over things we could possibly get a sneaky and possibly intense little squall line mid day Wednesday through portions of the region as the Arctic cold front moves in. Will depend on what if any moisture is still available when it pushes through. Probably be some good mixing down of some higher wind gusts regardless.

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