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January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA


WxUSAF
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1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said:

My main concern with this event, as others have mentioned, is surface temps.  These are the euro temps for 00z Wednesday.  By this point most of our QPF has fallen and DC has about 0.1 left.  

4546D70C-57AE-42D2-99C3-FC723CE23CAD.png

They'll definitely be marginal where I'm at but the past several runs of the GFS has shown some decent, if not brief heavy snow soundings with that window of opportunity.  If it pans out that way, we could pick up a couple inches of snow relatively quickly.  I've seen that scenario before and the last time it happened, we lost power for 3 days.  

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21 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

My main concern with this event, as others have mentioned, is surface temps.  These are the euro temps for 00z Wednesday.  By this point most of our QPF has fallen and DC has about 0.1 left.  

4546D70C-57AE-42D2-99C3-FC723CE23CAD.png

It snowed heavy and stuck to the roads at 35 in November and I live south of DC.  Dont think it would be a problem in late January, at night.

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12 minutes ago, GATECH said:

It snowed heavy and stuck to the roads at 35 in November and I live south of DC.  Dont think it would be a problem in late January, at night.

Yeah it can definitely happen, but these rain to snow transitions have broken both ways for us in recent years.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we get 4-5 inches or if we bust and get less than an inch. 

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8 minutes ago, GATECH said:

It snowed heavy and stuck to the roads at 35 in November and I live south of DC.  Dont think it would be a problem in late January, at night.

Agree as long as rates are there (which appears to be the case). Best case would be solid rates shortly after onset before the bulk of the precip comes. A bit of a wildard there though but lay down a nice coating quick enough and the rest will accumulate easily. 

Even though Kuchera has consistently shown above 10:1 I'm not sure that's possible with onset above freezing during the daylight hours. The mid and upper column gets cold in a hurry though with the cold push into the midlevels during the meat of the event. With shallow cold confined to the surface and what appears to be good conditions in the DGZ is a little unique. Might be big fluffy high ratio dendrites in spite of temps near or above freezing. 

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14 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah it can definitely happen, but these rain to snow transitions have broken both ways for us in recent years.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we get 4-5 inches or if we bust and get less than an inch. 

Totally, actually don’t remember any really that have worked out, 2011 comes to mind but that was different setup.  My bar is a sloppy inch for my area and would call it a win, anything more would be pure gravy.

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3 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Totally, actually don’t remember any really that have worked out, 2011 comes to mind but that was different setup.  My bar is a sloppy inch for my area and would call it a win, anything more would be pure gravy.

I thought there was one in 2015 that started out warm but gave us 6 inches...I could be wrong though. 

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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

That is calling for all-time records in my home territory in southern MN.  The fresh snowpack there will help, but this isn’t 94 or 96.

I grew up on a farm in northeast Iowa and have never experienced the -34 forecast for Waterloo although have seen it in the forecast on several occasions.  I've experienced many -20 to -25 nights and a few below that but never -34.  Until recently, I believe the all time record in Waterloo was -32 on March 1st.  

 

Elkader has the all time low in my area of minus 50 something; guess that is safe. 

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15 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I thought there was one in 2015 that started out warm but gave us 6 inches...I could be wrong though. 

March 5 2015. Most snow fell in the daylight IIRC but it did change from rain to snow very early morning so sun angle wasn't the biggest deal. Got 7" here followed by single digits. 

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1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said:

My main concern with this event, as others have mentioned, is surface temps.  These are the euro temps for 00z Wednesday.  By this point most of our QPF has fallen and DC has about 0.1 left.  

4546D70C-57AE-42D2-99C3-FC723CE23CAD.png

It will be from 4-7 and sun has waned. 11-2 and I would have the same concern 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

If the globals go the same way as the nams I'll take it more seriously. We're right in the nam's wheelhouse for oscillating between good runs and bad ones. We do this with every.single.event

The nam performs better than the euro at this range ? 

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Just now, frd said:

The nam performs better than the euro at this range ? 

I'm just saying that the nams have a knack of either taking away our snow or giving us false hope leading in. I can think of few if any events where they didn't. Sometimes they are right and sometimes they are terrible. Good luck guessing which direction right now. I'll wait until the globals run before worrying one way or the other.

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm just saying that the nams have a knack of either taking away our snow or giving us false hope leading in. I can think of few if any events where they didn't. Sometimes they are right and sometimes they are terrible. Good luck guessing which direction right now. I'll wait until the globals run before worrying one way or the other.

Relatively speaking the ICON doesn't look any worse than 18z, a bit wetter in a few areas and according to TT a bit more snow in N MD vs the last run. 

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