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January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA


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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’d say. 0.4-0.5” QPF and we lose very little if any QPF to rain. 

It gets it done differently than those good euro runs from the last few days which had the precip hanging around until Wednesday am.  This is all a quick hitter Tuesday afternoon/evening.  It would be an excellent outcome. 

75D609A6-D8CA-4FEF-9AD6-D3DB945D98BD.png

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4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

It gets it done differently than those good euro runs from the last few days which had the precip hanging around until Wednesday am.  This is all a quick hitter Tuesday afternoon/evening.  It would be an excellent outcome. 

75D609A6-D8CA-4FEF-9AD6-D3DB945D98BD.png

At least Bob is getting rewarded for all the great work and analysis he gives us. He has been in the jackpot all winter. 

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13 minutes ago, weathercoins said:

Girlfriend is in Madison for the winter.  Honestly considered going over there for the cold snap, don't know when I'll ever experience something like that.

Yep, I hear you. A -55 to -65 WC is something I'd like to experience. Coldest I've ever enjoyed was -44. That was up at Jay VT with the air temp -14.

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If we somehow manage a solid event Tuesday then temps could be interesting post front. Fresh snowpack and air mass can yield interesting temperature departures.

Would be great to take advantage of snow cover and see how low we go down. 

Been waiting for that combo for years ! Last Jan no snow cover , last couple years, nada, this past MLK Day, super cold, but no snowcover.

This would be great for the spirits if the Euro was right.    

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Just now, wxdude64 said:

Yep, not a lot for here, but I am over climo, y'all can have this one if it happens that way. :)

I need about 6-7" to hit climo so won't hit it with this one. Kuchera is overdone because temps are upper 30s at onset. There's going to be some wasted qpf. Very interesting though as now all globals and even the nam are hinting at some heavy snow for a time and surface should be good by then. A blend of all guidance right now is very encouraging for the 95 and close burb corridor. DCA may have a legit shot at topping climo. Not bad for a "disaster" winter. 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Surface temps at onset make me skeptical but this looks too mf'ing good not to post. Not everybody is cheering but most of us are. Rockville columbia psu deathband on this run. 

jN4tq67.png

12z was great all around. I wish I could lock that up.  The frontal wave trended better across guidance.  One thing that worries me some is that the wave has trended east consistently the last 48 hours. Yea i know this one euro run was left of 6z but overall the trend is east. 72 hours ago this was going mostly west of us. If that trend continues we could be left watching philly and nyc celebrate. It’s already becoming a bummer for the western 1/3 of this region. I’d like to see that east trend stop before I feel confident enough to get my hopes up. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I need about 6-7" to hit climo so won't hit it with this one. Kuchera is overdone because temps are upper 30s at onset. There's going to be some wasted qpf. Very interesting though as now all globals and even the nam are hinting at some heavy snow for a time and surface should be good by then. A blend of all guidance right now is very encouraging for the 95 and close burb corridor. DCA may have a legit shot at topping climo. Not bad for a "disaster" winter. 

So true...our winters are rarely if ever wall to wall cold and snowy.  We have been and always will be a take what you can get region in winter

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