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January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA


WxUSAF
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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

All our busts have happened inside 24-48. Give it time. Disaster incoming.

Actually, every storm this year has looked good in medium range, crapped out in the 48-72hr range, then come back strong in the last 36-48hrs. Not saying it will happen like that again, but...

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Actually, every storm this year has looked good in medium range, crapped out in the 48-72hr range, then come back strong in the last 36-48hrs. Not saying it will happen like that again, but...

I agree!  The Euro does this quite frequently. I’m seeing on Twitter (Cranky) that the GFS has snow for us on Tuesday night. It is way too early to give up on anything.  Even if it is a few hours of rain changing to snow, following by a deep freeze for 2 -3 days. That can be fairly significant in our area. 

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06UT GFS COBB http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb_help.pdf shows 3+ hours of snow or rain/snow at DCA (4 - ~7 PM Tuesday evening).  Total precipitation is on the 0.5". Temperature at 3 PM is 40 degrees so.  
Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
190129/2200Z  64  32013KT  32.1F  SNOW    8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119    8:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39  100|  0|  0
190129/2300Z  65  30011KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037    8:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42   66|  0| 34
190130/0000Z  66  31012KT  31.5F  SNOW   20:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051   11:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47  100|  0|  0
190130/0100Z  67  31010KT  32.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   11:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48   78|  0| 22

Indeed so quiet hear ... and I doubt we're all at Sunday services

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57 minutes ago, LP08 said:

The NAM still looks fun for a couple hours at least.

that's what this is.  with a low heading into the great lakes dragging a cold front with it, i'm not sure how much max potential there is with this, but if we can get a summer style squall or two out of it, then it should coat.  i'm not expecting a 6 hour snowstorm with this, but if a flukey low can develop overhead, then who knows.  

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1 hour ago, dallen7908 said:

06UT GFS COBB http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb_help.pdf shows 3+ hours of snow or rain/snow at DCA (4 - ~7 PM Tuesday evening).  Total precipitation is on the 0.5". Temperature at 3 PM is 40 degrees so.  
Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
190129/2200Z  64  32013KT  32.1F  SNOW    8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119    8:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39  100|  0|  0
190129/2300Z  65  30011KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037    8:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42   66|  0| 34
190130/0000Z  66  31012KT  31.5F  SNOW   20:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051   11:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47  100|  0|  0
190130/0100Z  67  31010KT  32.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   11:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48   78|  0| 22

Indeed so quiet hear ... and I doubt we're all at Sunday services

I just got in from church.  I prayed that all the insanity here goes away. ;).

Wow 20:1 as it ends...should be some fun snowTV at the very least.  

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10 minutes ago, 87storms said:

that's what this is.  with a low heading into the great lakes dragging a cold front with it, i'm not sure how much max potential there is with this, but if we can get a summer style squall or two out of it, then it should coat.  i'm not expecting a 6 hour snowstorm with this, but if a flukey low can develop overhead, then who knows.  

It’s always hard to see high end solutions and watch them back off as we move in.  We should still see some snow and accumulation.

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7 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

12z GFS and 6z FV3 still look decent.  FV3 gives 3-4 inches areawide.  Wonder if maybe the euro windshield wipes back a bit. 

If you believe the CMC, our surface temps are borderline so we lose a fair bit to rain or non-accumulating snow (I don’t have soundings but I would imagine the warm layer is super shallow and confined to the surface).  QPF is pretty good with 0.3-0.4”.  

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

If you believe the CMC, our surface temps are borderline so we lose a fair bit to rain or non-accumulating snow (I don’t have soundings but I would imagine the warm layer is super shallow and confined to the surface).  QPF is pretty good with 0.3-0.4”.  

Yeah it looks like the bulk of the precip falls between 18z (temps 37-38) and 00z (temps 34-35) in DC with 850s <0.  

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11 minutes ago, Scraff said:

GFS is fine for a 1-2”er. I need Queen FV3 and and King Euro to come around though before I put down @showmethesnow dollars. :whistle:

Not sure I would put my money on it just yet. That is if I still had it (Vegas is now the proud owner of everything, wife is still a little pissed about losing the house but whatever). If we continue to see a weakening and adjustment northwestward of the energy tracking through our general region I think even us up in the favored locals to the north and west will struggle to see an inch or two. Also haven't liked the tendencies we are seeing with the lift between 850 and the 700s. We need to see a stop to the bleeding here if not a full reversal otherwise we are close to losing just about everything. Haven't looked over any of the 12Z guidance as of yet and probably won't till later this afternoon so hopefully there are some positives to glean from it. And we have 3 days to get this right so hope is still alive. 

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I’m not thrilled that the gfs has shifted the axis of the precip slightly east the last 3 runs. That’s heading towards the fail icon/euro look. 

ETA:  it’s still good as is but I don’t like it moving towards a later developing wave, if that trend continues in future runs it could join the fail camp. 

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