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Cheeznado

Post Arctic front snow Tuesday, Jan 29

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23 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

This NWS map seems reasonable. 15Z SREF and 12Z EPS are .5-1" for Atlanta. New NAM a bit over 1.

Screen Shot 2019-01-27 at 3.49.22 PM.png

Weirdly, my little corner of GA (Lumpkin County) always--always--is on the edge of things during these events. We're either on the edge of the forecast precip itself or else we're on the edge of expected amounts. It's unsettling, as if forecasters don't know how to classify us.  :P

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10 minutes ago, Tanith said:

Weirdly, my little corner of GA (Lumpkin County) always--always--is on the edge of things during these events. We're either on the edge of the forecast precip itself or else we're on the edge of expected amounts. It's unsettling, as if forecasters don't know how to classify us.  :P

Lumpkin looks pretty solid for an inch plus. In a much better spot than counties like Hall, Habersham, and Rabun.

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2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Not sure how accurate this is, but I'll take it and run...

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

I’d take this in a heartbeat and be good with January. 

Have to say when I heard the winter forecast I was expecting some measurable snow in January. Kind of disappointed on this month. Weve had cold enough temps and plenty of moisture. 

I still have a good feeling about February. 

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Just now, Touchet said:

Does anyone really know what is gonna happen Tuesday? 

Yeah it’s going to snow in north ga.  Just a matter of how much. We are 24-36 hours to the event 

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1 minute ago, Touchet said:

Does anyone really know what is gonna happen Tuesday? 

No

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Just now, LithiaWx said:

Yeah it’s going to snow in north ga.  Just a matter of how much. We are 24-36 hours to the event 

Been hearing on FB they are salting roads in Alabama. My friend was completely taken aback. She had no idea it was gonna snow. 

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2 minutes ago, Touchet said:

Does anyone really know what is gonna happen Tuesday? 

Only thing we can be sure of is that the colder air will be moving in.

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Down here , imby, that happens after moisture is gone! Cold chasing moisture, with a flash freeze, best I can hope for!

 

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Down here , imby, that happens after moisture is gone! Cold chasing moisture, with a flash freeze, best I can hope for!

That counts as freezing rain right?  Rain that falls and then freezes.  Gotta  make the most of a bad  situation.

TW

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No, freezing rain is when the rain freezes on contact.
 
This will be a freeze of whatever puddles are still around.
I'm pretty sure that was a joke...

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

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Yes it was a joke.  I've never been very good at it.  I guess I'm pretty bad at it in person as well as on the keyboard. 

TW

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4 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Not sure how accurate this is, but I'll take it and run...

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

You need to use the Kuchera maps, because it will not involve high ratios.

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NAM moves the precip through before the cold air really arrives. Shows a small band north of the Triangle into southern VA, but that's less pronounced than at 18z.

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2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Yes it was a joke.  I've never been very good at it.  I guess I'm pretty bad at it in person as well as on the keyboard. 

TW

haha sorry!  I should've picked up on the sarcasm.

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46 minutes ago, Touchet said:

Does anyone really know what is gonna happen Tuesday? 

No

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5 hours ago, Cheeznado said:

This NWS map seems reasonable. 15Z SREF and 12Z EPS are .5-1" for Atlanta. New NAM a bit over 1.

Screen Shot 2019-01-27 at 3.49.22 PM.png

Nice to see some winter weather in my ol' TAG stomping grounds

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 00Z NAM and 3KM both have basically no accumulations in Atlanta but the 21Z SREF amounts went up a bit. So not changing my .5-1" forecast yet but I will say that since all models have at least some sunshine by Tuesday afternoon the chance of any major road problems in the metro have decreased.

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3 hours ago, Touchet said:

Does anyone really know what is gonna happen Tuesday? 

No, but we’ll know on Wednesday. :)

—-

On a serious note, this looks like rain chasing the moisture east of the Appalachians, which usually never turns out well.  The models do seem to favor a period of snow for the NC Piedmont, though, so we’ll see.  Looks like a better storm for N MS/AL/GA.

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the high-res NAM seems to have slowed down the frontal passage for central NC by 1-3 hours.  The only thing this really affects is the amount of time the moisture has to evaporate before freezing for the morning.  

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47 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

the high-res NAM seems to have slowed down the frontal passage for central NC by 1-3 hours.  The only thing this really affects is the amount of time the moisture has to evaporate before freezing for the morning.  

It did increase snow accumulations for our area. Not a lot (trace-half inch maybe), but it's now showing some coverage for the northern Triangle - northeastward.  

Also the Fv3 continues to be bullish with 1-2" of actual accumulations from RDU westward:

 

aaaa.jpg

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