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Cheeznado

Post Arctic front snow Tuesday, Jan 29

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NAM sounding text showing potential for moderate thunderstorms at 60 hours on the 12z run. 

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5 hours ago, Powerball said:

It’s nearly the same and we are seeing modeling play out about as it did.  I clearly recall that event looked somewhat impressive 4-5 days out then it looked very meh once we got to 2-3.  I was only going T-1 inch for ATL.  Then inside 30 hours everything started to uptick.  The RGEM was first, the UKMET followed and then the Euro.  The next morning (only 12-18 hours from the start the NAM sand GFS jumped onboard).  I was and still am convinced it was the low level downslope which confused the guidance into having too low QPF.  And the moist SW flow above H8 was captured in the short range.  We will have to see if the same occurs this time.  The one difference is the cold air was in place ahead of the last event but even here most precip is progged behind the boundary 

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They brined the roads in Clayton. I’m surprised by this so far south and days ahead when a good deal of rain will fall prior to any chance of snow flurries. 

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2 minutes ago, Regan said:

They brined the roads in Clayton. I’m surprised by this so far south and days ahead when a good deal of rain will fall prior to any chance of snow flurries. 

Wow, did they really? That is crazy. 

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

I just noticed the roads are brined in Fuquay, Angier, Willow Spring as well!

 

Do they know something we don’t? Lol

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I hope this fropa works out for yall in Ga and NC. It wont and never does for the upstate. It will be the last shot for most on here. SER is a coming. Cut these totals in half to be safe

 

Screenshot_20190127-133649_Chrome.jpg

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Can't catch a break in southern Wake.  Why is there such a sharp cutoff of the precip south of 40?  Is this because of the temperature and only those areas are cold enough to support snow?

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It increasingly looks like in NC, at least, it's going to be very much like a summer time situation. If you get under the lift and have agreeable temps, you can get an inch or two with falling temps. 

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Just now, WidreMann said:

Very few people are likely to see snow east of the mountains with this. Let's be honest.

It's an unusual situation but it's happened plenty of times before. 11/11/13 comes to mind. It was 63 degrees in Charlotte that afternoon and snowing by 7PM. 

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While it’s painful to always be in that inevitable screw zone, I’m happy that you Atlanta peeps have had some decent winters over the last couple of years.


.

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Just now, WidreMann said:

Very few people are likely to see snow east of the mountains with this. Let's be honest.

Yeah probably less and 1 in 10 of these ever produce much.  Only ones I can recall are Jan 78, Jan 85 (super outbreak), Jan 99, and Jan 02(or 03 cant remember which).  So, yes not getting my hopes up.

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GSP discussion:

Quote
As of 330 PM EST Sunday: A Winter Storm Watch has been issued
for portions of the NC mountains along with Rabun County, GA,
and will go into effect beginning late Monday night.

With broad upper longwave trough across much of the CONUS, latest
guidance continues to place an approaching Arctic cold front draped
through the TN Valley at the beginning of the forecast period on
Monday night, with it propagating eastward through the FA early
Tuesday morning. With SW flow/available moisture in place ahead of
this system, precipitation is expected to begin as early as late
Monday night across the extreme western portions of the FA, expand
eastward across the FA on Tuesday, and taper off by Tuesday evening,
with the exception of lingering moisture along the TN border.
However, precipitation associated with this system will not fall as
all rain as fcst soundings continue to suggest a rain/snow scenario
as the Arctic cold air infiltrates into the region. Low
temperatures overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning will
range in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees across the Upstate and
NW Piedmont, into the lower 30s across the NC mountains, and
slightly colder at the higher elevations.

As precipitation expands eastward through daybreak on Tuesday, do
anticipate a transition to all snow across portions of the
mountains, especially the higher elevations, as a rain/snow mix
expands along the I-40 corridor early, and precipitation elsewhere
across the Upstate remains all rain. With temperatures rising above
freezing on Tuesday before the colder air infiltrates behind the
cold front east of the escarpment, any rain/snow mix outside of the
mountains will return to all rain by late Tuesday morning. High
temperatures on Tuesday will climb into the mid to upper 40s to low
50s across the Upstate and NW Piedmont, into the 30s across the
mountains.

Into Tuesday evening, as precipitation tapers off from west to east
(with the exception of areas along the TN border on the backside of
the exiting system), with colder air infiltrating in, could not
entirely rule out rain/snow mix or light snow showers across
portions of the Upstate and NW Piedmont into Tuesday night. However,
given lower QPF due to the infiltration of drier air at the lower
levels as seen from fcst soundings, do not anticipate any
accumulations outside of the mountains attm. As for the
mountains/higher terrain, snowfall amounts could range from a
dusting to potentially 2 inches in the valleys and across the
lower ridges, with higher amounts nearing 4 to 6 inches along
the ridgetops of the Smokies and the Balsams. The Black
Mountains and other mountain ranges in northwest NC could
potentially see 3 to 5 inches. Thus, a Winter Storm Watch has
been issued with this forecast package. With the Arctic air
infiltrating in, a much colder night is in store across the area
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with low temperatures
below freezing cross the entire FA - mid to upper teens to
lower 20s across the Upstate and NW Piedmont, into the single
digits to teens across the mountains. Thus, do anticipate the
potential for slippery road conditions due to black ice anywhere
roadways and elevated surfaces were still wet from recent
rainfall/snowfall Tuesday night.

 

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2 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Yeah probably less and 1 in 10 of these ever produce much.  Only ones I can recall are Jan 78, Jan 85 (super outbreak), Jan 99, and Jan 02(or 03 cant remember which).  So, yes not getting my hopes up.

Jan 95 had some post frontal snow in Atlanta.....

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