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Post Arctic front snow Tuesday, Jan 29


Cheeznado
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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

This will be a really interesting event to watch.  Quick hitting front.  I'm not really expecting to see any snow down in southern wake...  maybe a few flakes mixed in toward the end of the precip shield.  

If we end up with not one flake of snow from this, I wouldn't be surprised or upset (so very low expectations).

But this is a situation that can produce a surprise event. Just a little more development with .1-.2 more qpf could make this eventful. We're just going to have to wait to see how the precip develops as it crosses the mountains.

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For ATL area the 06Z NAM as well as the 3k NAM were bone dry for snow accumulations, the latest 12Z runs show some accumulation with the NAM a lot more aggressive (1-2" in metro) than the 3k (+ 1/2").  Kuchera ratios on all models are lower than 10:1 and must be considering a good bit of rain mix.

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10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

GFS looks a lot better! Heard ATL schools were closed tomorrow!? Little gun shy, and not wanting snowjam 3!

I see no announcement on twitter of it officially.  That would seem to be an early trigger.  Given how late in the year it is relatively though schools tend to be more willing to make a closing call early.  If it is in December they are often wary because if it’s a bad winter, especially if it’s a southern location where roads may stay bad for days with each storm you don’t want to be in school til June 

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I see no announcement on twitter of it officially.  That would seem to be an early trigger.  Given how late in the year it is relatively though schools tend to be more willing to make a closing call early.  If it is in December they are often wary because if it’s a bad winter, especially if it’s a southern location where roads may stay bad for days with each storm you don’t want to be in school til June 

Atlanta Public School texts have gone out to parents that school is cancelled tomorrow.  Looks like their twitter feed has been updated.  Like you said, they have a couple days built into the schedule, so might as well use it if there is uncertainty.  They would much prefer the embarrassment from cancelling for a rain storm than the pain of having school get out when roads are already in bad shape.

 

 

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I think the idea of this being more isolated banding type snow squalls makes sense, given the setup w/ a weak disturbance rotating around a strong Arctic front. You don't see a PV Lobe this strong drop into the Great Lakes. It's a highly anomalous event. So I could definitely see some surprises (from a localized perspective).

 

Example - 1 city get's 2 inches of snow while nothing falls 10 mins down the road.

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2 hours ago, Rankin5150 said:

A lot better for ATL or overall? Thanks 

Yes, we really don’t have a chance, outside of flurries, IMO! If we could get the cold front to fly through and then a low form on it, we would do better, but that’s about a 1% chance as of now. The mountains do well regardless, a lot of 2-4” up there. Thinking of chasing up there tomorrow.

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