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Post Arctic front snow Tuesday, Jan 29


Cheeznado
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23 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

This NWS map seems reasonable. 15Z SREF and 12Z EPS are .5-1" for Atlanta. New NAM a bit over 1.

Screen Shot 2019-01-27 at 3.49.22 PM.png

Weirdly, my little corner of GA (Lumpkin County) always--always--is on the edge of things during these events. We're either on the edge of the forecast precip itself or else we're on the edge of expected amounts. It's unsettling, as if forecasters don't know how to classify us.  :P

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10 minutes ago, Tanith said:

Weirdly, my little corner of GA (Lumpkin County) always--always--is on the edge of things during these events. We're either on the edge of the forecast precip itself or else we're on the edge of expected amounts. It's unsettling, as if forecasters don't know how to classify us.  :P

Lumpkin looks pretty solid for an inch plus. In a much better spot than counties like Hall, Habersham, and Rabun.

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2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Not sure how accurate this is, but I'll take it and run...

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

I’d take this in a heartbeat and be good with January. 

Have to say when I heard the winter forecast I was expecting some measurable snow in January. Kind of disappointed on this month. Weve had cold enough temps and plenty of moisture. 

I still have a good feeling about February. 

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Down here , imby, that happens after moisture is gone! Cold chasing moisture, with a flash freeze, best I can hope for!

 

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Down here , imby, that happens after moisture is gone! Cold chasing moisture, with a flash freeze, best I can hope for!

That counts as freezing rain right?  Rain that falls and then freezes.  Gotta  make the most of a bad  situation.

TW

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 00Z NAM and 3KM both have basically no accumulations in Atlanta but the 21Z SREF amounts went up a bit. So not changing my .5-1" forecast yet but I will say that since all models have at least some sunshine by Tuesday afternoon the chance of any major road problems in the metro have decreased.

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3 hours ago, Touchet said:

Does anyone really know what is gonna happen Tuesday? 

No, but we’ll know on Wednesday. :)

—-

On a serious note, this looks like rain chasing the moisture east of the Appalachians, which usually never turns out well.  The models do seem to favor a period of snow for the NC Piedmont, though, so we’ll see.  Looks like a better storm for N MS/AL/GA.

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47 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

the high-res NAM seems to have slowed down the frontal passage for central NC by 1-3 hours.  The only thing this really affects is the amount of time the moisture has to evaporate before freezing for the morning.  

It did increase snow accumulations for our area. Not a lot (trace-half inch maybe), but it's now showing some coverage for the northern Triangle - northeastward.  

Also the Fv3 continues to be bullish with 1-2" of actual accumulations from RDU westward:

 

aaaa.jpg

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