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1/29- 1/30 Storm Threat


40/70 Benchmark
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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

2”? No one will get that.  Many will get 0.5” or so pretty quickly.  Just like a quick thunderstorm.  Nothing amazing but cool if you get it.  If I miss it I will be fine...

Exactly my point. I'd be more captivated by a fart entirely preserved under the blankets.

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Just now, tunafish said:

Coastal front starting to show up on radar just offshore York County, ME.  Does it mean anything for sensible weather impacts?  Popped open the radar and was surprised to see that showing up.

That will probably hug the coast for a bit this morning, Its been modeled.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everything you outlined is correct. I'm just frustrated, bored silly with this season.

Gotta hang in there, because I still think some fun times lay ahead.

Yea. Agreed. Was hoping this vortex would produce a bomb. Another great opportunity, squandered. That said, being how anomalous this setup is, I think there’s a much greater than usual chance of surprises inside 48 hrs...Worth watching for this reason alone...

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9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

U kno what the comical thing is

nam temps didnt change at all from 3z to 7z for Merrimack valley 

they still bring 32.5 degree air to SENH /Merrimack valley they still bring 925 taint during the height of precip (8 runs in a row) for about 4 hours ....granted to say Merrimack /MHT area and this is still an underwhelming storm there regardless of temps bc of a continually modeled dry slot from at least 495 Se perhaps extend that 10 miles NW 

There are about 3 flags waving for ASH SE to 495 and frankly if people can’t see them at this point they are wishcasting

You aren't sniffing 32. 

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There is a steep gradient on the vast majority of guidance Between a LINE from say Dover to say Candia to MHT to NH/ma coast to 495 

I mean , when this shows up on 8 consecutive runs over multiple model guidance why anyone would forecast different is perplexing ...925’s and dry slot are biggest flags for S NH

the meso’s are not tracking this low south of Boston....

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Love the fact we are all hoping to somehow squeeze a few inches out between the slop and the squalls. Its humbling to realize you really can take what you get and make the most of it. Now if a parade of storms comes our way some time this winter and we are on the snowy side of them we'll look at an event like this as barely worth commenting on. Of course blinding snow squalls and frigid temps can produce a real bad time on the highways.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pickles, pickles, pickles.  Just enjoy a few inches like your squat partners do, and accept it. 

Like I said I’ll be lucky to see 2

i kno your raining so you don’t really care if someone NW of you is trying to facilitate a realistic number 

WPC gives me 20% chance of 4 inches 

excuse me for being detail oriented 

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Like I said I’ll be lucky to see 2

i kno your raining so you don’t really care if someone NW of you is trying to facilitate a realistic number 

WPC gives me 20% chance of 4 inches 

excuse me for being detail oriented 

I would love 2". Even if that's all you get (it will likely be a bit more than that) enjoy it. 

Signed,

Those that drip

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10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

There is a steep gradient on the vast majority of guidance Between a LINE from say Dover to say Candia to MHT to NH/ma coast to 495 

I mean , when this shows up on 8 consecutive runs over multiple model guidance why anyone would forecast different is perplexing ...925’s and dry slot are biggest flags for S NH

the meso’s are not tracking this low south of Boston....

Bc nothing will do the low level cold justice. Last system was a mid level issue...different ballgame. That warmth is usually underestimated.

It was 12* when I left my house this morning...good luck with 32.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Bc nothing will do the low level cold justice. Last system was a mid level issue...different ballgame. That warmth is usually underestimated.

It was 12* when I left my house this morning...good luck with 32.

Yeah that stuff ain't budging must past 128. 

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Bc nothing will do the low level cold justice. Last system was a mid level issue...different ballgame. That warmth is usually underestimated.

It was 12* when I left my house this morning...good luck with 32.

I realize what the issue was with the last system , you have to be Helen Keller not to. Some areas were 0f and pelting in N central NH .

 

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Just now, tunafish said:

Trying to understand and follow along as best as possible, so I appreciate all the discussion. 

If the cold isn't budging past 128, where is the modeled rain coming from for coastal Maine?  I'm assuming the cold budges once the low finally tracks overhead, yes?

Beaches of maine will get above 32, but won't get much past there. The low will go along the path of least resistance. 

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