Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 21 minutes ago, snowgeek said: Where's the DGEX when you need it?!?!? 997mb over the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. That would make things interesting. no meaningful differences compared to the 12z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Turns out the Gfs was onto something with this potential event, so maybe it's not garbage after all. Alternatively any model that screws us this year is probably right. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Turns out the Gfs was onto something with this potential event, so maybe it's not garbage after all. Alternatively any model that screws us this year is probably right. I’d wait for verification to say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Does anyone actually remember what the GFS had even yesterday? I don't think it even had any secondary frontal development at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Yesterday's 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 This is going to be an epic epic week of winter in NNE. I would love to be up in a log cabin again with 2 plus feet of pure powdah, pick a place anywhere from the Greens, Whites, to the Mahousics. Constant snow squalls, winds gusting to 60, wind chills 30 to 40 below. Love the experience of intense deep deep winter in the mountains. Its a buzz for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Max zone looks like western Maine (Sunday river area) over to powderfreak. But there's a nice sig for heavy snow down through Dendrite's hood and maybe some shovelable snows into interior SNE. EPS agrees with that narrative. Has 1"+ QPF snow in Maine mountains and about 0.8" over this way. Then a few inches for interior SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Nam looks like it’s going to develop into a bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Turns out the Gfs was onto something with this potential event, so maybe it's not garbage after all. Alternatively any model that screws us this year is probably right. Did u see the nam? Much better model than the gfs any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Did u see the nam? Much better model than the gfs any day The Nam is garbage outside 48 hrs. This doesn't look good for anyone outside NNE, CNE is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: This is going to be an epic epic week of winter in NNE. I would love to be up in a log cabin again with 2 plus feet of pure powdah, pick a place anywhere from the Greens, Whites, to the Mahousics. Constant snow squalls, winds gusting to 60, wind chills 30 to 40 below. Love the experience of intense deep deep winter in the mountains. Its a buzz for sure. My sister in law's family are up near SLK. They've been just buried with another foot plus expected in the next few days. They must have a solid three foot plus pack from the pics I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The Nam is garbage outside 48 hrs. This doesn't look good for anyone outside NNE, CNE is close. Interior SNE def has a shot at advisory....maybe better if this breaks right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Interior SNE def has a shot at advisory....maybe better if this breaks right. Why do you engage his trolling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The Nam is garbage outside 48 hrs. This doesn't look good for anyone outside NNE, CNE is close. You don’t know that and honestly I’d take the nam at 84 hours way before the gfs and cmc. Just look at how nam has performed with big storms the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 GFS did trend toward more secondary development this run. It's still a verbatim crap solution for most outside of far NNE but it did trend in the right direction I think...it held more vorticity on the base of the trough. But it is still more rounded than other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS did trend toward more secondary development this run. It's still a verbatim crap solution for most outside of far NNE but it did trend in the right direction I think...it held more vorticity on the base of the trough. But it is still more rounded than other guidance. Maybe tonight will be the night that the NAM goes bonkers followed by a bonkers EURO run. I recall a few storms that exploded on us in the 60 hr time frame. Hail Mary but who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 12 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Maybe tonight will be the night that the NAM goes bonkers followed by a bonkers EURO run. I recall a few storms that exploded on us in the 60 hr time frame. Hail Mary but who knows... Our best shot imo...the follow up deal is junk with a low ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why do you engage his trolling? It's called reality. As of now the only area targeted is NNE. Could it trend better and impact other zones, sure, but that's not the case right now. Hell of a winter though in parts of NNE, it really is like 07/08 adjusted north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 If that did happen it would be a fast mover either way ... limiting total impact. In fact, I could almost envision something bombing and moving so fast that at best a major fall rate only renders a modest impact ...maybe middling. This compression/gradated steep vortex and concomitant fast circumvallate velocities simply will not allow a system to a "normal" residence in any location ... UNLESS, said low some how drills into the core of the vortex which would be highly unlikely considering said velocity negates that type of phasing to begin with... so it's a partial or nothing, moving at ludicrous speed sort of affair ... nothing, or something in between. How's that for narrowing it down - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: If that did happen it would be a fast mover either way ... limiting total impact. In fact, I could almost envision something bombing and moving so fast that at best a major fall rate only renders a modest impact ...maybe middling. This compression/gradated steep vortex and concomitant fast circumvallate velocities simply will not allow a system to a "normal" residence in any location ... UNLESS, said low some how drills into the core of the vortex which would be highly unlikely considering said velocity negative that type of phasing to begin with... so it's a partial or nothing, moving a ludicrous speed sort of affair ... nothing, or something in between. How's that for narrowing it down - Why is the flow so fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: It's called reality. As of now the only area targeted is NNE. Could it trend better and impact other zones, sure, but that's not the case right now. Hell of a winter though in parts of NNE, it really is like 07/08 adjusted north. We are in line for advisory snows . Models have light accumulation right to the coast . You honestly have no idea what you’re talking about. We still can’t figute out why a SNJ poster posts more in our threads than the Mid Atlantic other than to troll . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: The Nam is garbage outside 48 hrs. This doesn't look good for anyone outside NNE, CNE is close. Dude I can’t with you. You’re the type of person that knows it all. Just give it up you don’t know what’s going to happen and in fact no one knows yet! I’d give it until Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Dude I can’t with you. You’re the type of person that knows it all. Just give it up you don’t know what’s going to happen and in fact no one knows yet! I’d give it until Sunday night Get a room both of you....geez! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We are in line for advisory snows . Models have light accumulation right to the coast . You honestly have no idea what you’re talking about. We still can’t figute out why a SNJ poster posts more in our threads than the Mid Atlantic other than to troll . I don't live in SNJ and I'm in SW CT right now for a few months. I wish I lived in the Mid-Atlantic this year they had a lot more snow than most up here. Models have a light accumulation due to the Arctic front, so I'm not denying that won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I don't live in SNJ and I'm in SW CT right now for a few months. I wish I lived in the Mid-Atlantic this year they had a lot more snow than most up here. Models have a light accumulation due to the Arctic front, so I'm not denying that won't happen. Let’s see what nam shows tonight. I’ll talk to u guys later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Better look for snow starved folks in the western part of SNE on that 18z Euro OP run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Euro was similar to 12z though it might even be slightly more rounded on the trough. Not what I want to see. Still gives several inches for interior SNE though. But we want to see a trend where there's some vorticity out at the base of the trough as it swings north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro was similar to 12z though it might even be slightly more rounded on the trough. Not what I want to see. Still gives several inches for interior SNE though. But we want to see a trend where there's some vorticity out at the base of the trough as it swings north. Can you show us for us ’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Can you show us for us ’s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 9 minutes ago, WeatherX said: Better look for snow starved folks in the western part of SNE on that 18z Euro OP run. . Still all rain for us . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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