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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Clarification... 

"Luck" and "chance" are what occurs when the observer doesn't see or get to see, all the subtle forces in real time the effect the emergence of future circumstance/events.  That sounds similar to the plight of weather prognostics - duh! 

If one could readily quantize/qualify all the Quantum States of every Plank-length virtual or real particle in real time ... with exactness ( something on the order of incalculably large ... Googleplex ... mind you )  then they would know what all possible permutations are available to a given domain space, in a given time; and then "chance" ... "luck" ... whatever we want call or define uncertainty, is no longer uncertain and therefore, ceases to exist.

Until then?  To get around chance's rearing it's ugly unpropitious influence, or kindly favorable outcomes, would require something like omniscience be available to either the technology, or the artist. 

Not happening ... 

In other words, luck in human parlance is purely a function of human limitations.   Just get over it and move on... If you don't know, and things happen in favor, or against ... that is by definition chance working in favor or against... If you don't want to call it luck, when "luck" is defined by chance - than you have issues accepting either the language or the reality...  

I suspect its the language... because one phenomenon I've noted about dealing with the public over the last decade of on and off involvement with social -media of this nature, is that when people are aggravated and p'ode and annoyed by what they are not getting out of the drama of modeling and/or the realization of the type of weather they want ... they redirect into vapid bickering over how others choose to describe thing.   Ugh - ice pick in the ear socket man...  Let it f'n go!   

 

The models are full of partial differential equations so even if the initial conditions were perfect, there's still going to be chaos that exponentially increases with time. Add in initial condition error, parameterization, relatively sparse data coverage, etc and I still find it amazing the models do as well as they do...even out to d5-d7.

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33 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The further up and or  in one goes in SNE (New England really) the more pattern combinations will produce winter weather and vice versa . ...to an extreme extent when you look at Stowe/Caribou against SE coast of SNE

 Yeah, it has certainly been a sucky winter but I am still at about 30 inches and have had long periods of snow cover.  I am not just talking about my little icebox neighborhood either Greenfield north and west has had a lot of days of snow covered just not deep snow cover.

 The strangest part to me has been the complete lack of nickel or dime events.  

 All the snow events we have had, which isn't many, have all been 4 inches and up.

 

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I see a way out of the shit pattern but everytime we see light at the end of the tunnel there's a rock slide. Its however very possibly it is true.

True. And the rare times we have had a - NAO, including this time, the other teleconnections were/are in unfavorable phase states. I think a - - PNA -NAO combo will—in general—  present significant p-type problems for the warmer half of SNE...Thinking CNE and NNE strongly favored (unsurprisingly) over the next 10 days...JMO

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1988-1989 was the last time ORH didn't record a 6" snow event. There's already been 2 this winter so we can't have a repeat. 1999-2000 came close though with one 6.0" event and one 6.4" event. Not a lot of room to spare on each one.

However, we're threatening to break a pretty remarkable string at ORH this winter.....they have had at least one 12" snowstorm every single winter for the last decade. The last winter that did not record a 12" snow event at ORH was 2007-2008...which ironically was still an above average snowfall winter.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

1988-1989 was the last time ORH didn't record a 6" snow event. There's already been 2 this winter so we can't have a repeat. 1999-2000 came close though with one 6.0" event and one 6.4" event. Not a lot of room to spare on each one.

However, we're threatening to break a pretty remarkable string at ORH this winter.....they have had at least one 12" snowstorm every single winter for the last decade. The last winter that did not record a 12" snow event at ORH was 2007-2008...which ironically was still an above average snowfall winter.

 MPM moving there may be the harbinger of regression for Worcester County. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1988-1989 was the last time ORH didn't record a 6" snow event. There's already been 2 this winter so we can't have a repeat. 1999-2000 came close though with one 6.0" event and one 6.4" event. Not a lot of room to spare on each one.

However, we're threatening to break a pretty remarkable string at ORH this winter.....they have had at least one 12" snowstorm every single winter for the last decade. The last winter that did not record a 12" snow event at ORH was 2007-2008...which ironically was still an above average snowfall winter.

Heh...hit 76F at ORH in late March 89, but didn't hit 70F again until May 15.

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1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

In all reality this winter hasn't been THAT bad.....we had a few storms which were of moderate impact, pretty good cold (enough to ice fish), and the typical warm ups here and there.  Plus NNE has been cashing in, which is good to see as they're supposed to snow.  There's been plenty of worse winters. 

I disagree. This winter has been incredibly frustrating. Ill timed shit streaks, ghost NAO, bullshit MJO prognastication, a nino that never was, useless cold, either frozen barren brown earth or flooding rain and mud, every threat going to shite as we close in. I cant remember a winter where the weenies gnashing of teeth has been worse.

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Not to go too far off topic... whatever that is ... But, 1987 was the first spring I experienced in New England that caught me off guard and taught me a hard lesson that we don't really have spring in New England...  At least I thought until about 10 years ago... 

In 1987 I was all of four years transplanted from the Great Lakes that year, the first of which was spent out on the end of Cape Ann - even being green to the climate of the region, I was savvy enough to realize that with veritable ice bergs in the harbor (proverbially speaking...) until the end of July off Cape Ann, odds were we weren't going anywhere in Rockport, Massachusetts. 

By '85 and '86 I had moved well inland to the 495 belt ...far enough so to relish in more of a landward climate ... Those two years were not that bad... we got lucky.  But 1987 ...man... we had a 14 day cut-off menace in April that spun spokes of grapple showers raking New England from NF/NS ... some that even flipped to garbage snow and lowered visibility at times... Toward the end of that two weeks, the low actually got stronger and we ended up with a week or so of persistent rains and boat load-o flooding.  Pretty sure that's annulled. 

Between 1987 ... and say 2008, 3/4 of all springs were often severely belated.  Seasonal recoveries flat-lined with very shallow slopes... only to hockey-stick sometime between May and June.  2005's May seriously flat lined the recovery... like 0 slope for 20 days - it wast that bad.  The epitome of late sudden seasonal flashing...  I remember on the 27th of May it was 46 F ... with mist, and a week later it was 94/74 when I piled out of work down in Marlborough Mass around June 6 I think it was.  Ironically...that three days of torridity might have been the worst of it that summer... It sort of was unremarkable after that.  

Anyway, the 30 years of my life I've been around eastern New England ...I've grown to focus my loathing on the the month of April.  Enough Mays have been reasonable along the way, that I'm will let 2005 go as a fluke... barely..  But April is an unforgivable shit month that if I was god, would not exist ... March flips to May's climate period. 

About 10 years ago...we started getting into this era of unusual warm springs ... about half of them, I'd assess cursorily thinking back over this last decade.  We've had down right hot spells in March... and a few of them in April.  We've had some bad springs too... more in-line with the previous tendencies going way back.. .But, just the frequency of springs that were unusually warm at times has picked up. 

 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to go too far off topic... whatever that is ... But, 1987 was the first spring I experienced in New England that caught me off guard and taught me a hard lesson that we don't really have spring in New England...  At least I thought until about 10 years ago... 

In 1997 I was all of four years transplanted from the Great Lakes that year, the first of which was spent out on the end of Cape Ann - even being green to the climate of the region, I was savvy enough to realize that with veritable ice bergs in the harbor (proverbially speaking...) until the end of July off Cape Ann, odds were we weren't going anywhere in Rockport, Massachusetts. 

By '85 and '86 I had moved well inland to the 495 belt ...far enough so to relish in more of a landward climate ... Those two years were not that bad... we got lucky.  But 1987 ...man... we had a 14 day cut-off menace that spun spokes of grapple showered raking New England from NF/NS ... some that even flipped to garbage snow and lowered visibility at times... Toward the end of that two weeks, the low actually got stronger and we ended up with a week or so of persistent rains and boat load-o flooding.  Pretty sure that's annulled. 

Between 1987 ... and say 2008, 3/4 of all springs were often severely belated.  Seasonal recoveries flat-lined with very shallow slopes... only to hockey-stick sometime between May and June.  2005's May seriously flat lined the recovery... like 0 slope for 20 days - it wast that bad.  The epitome of late sudden seasonal flashing...  I remember on the 27th of May it was 46 F ... with mist, and a week later it was 94/74 when I piled out of work down in Marlborough Mass around June 6 I think it was.  Ironically...that three days of torridity might have been the worst of it that summer... It sort of was non-remarkable after that.  

Anyway, the 30 years of my life I've been around eastern New England ...I've grown to focus my loathing on the the month of April.  Enough Mays have been reasonable along the way, that I'm will let 2005 go as a fluke... barely..  But April is unforgivable shit month that if I was god, would not exist ... March to May climate period. 

 

 

 

 

 

Tip_2005toaster.png

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Ah hahahahaha ... oy

yup. pretty much...  

I really am at a place now where I should start looking for ways to leave this part of the country for that month. I think I could time share a tornado alley residence ... like, who in their right might would GO to eastern Oklahoma in April... right?  

I grew up with convection as my number one fascination,... I really didn't adopt as much interest in winter stuff until I moved locally... Now my interest time-shares - 

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Yeah ...the Euro's just been unrelenting with this pattern look it's cooked up for the mid and extended range.  Right out to the end of the guidance...

When you see that, that sort of near identical general display between D6 and D10 ... with almost zippo meaningful if identifiable at all modulation on major players... it just seems like we need a planetary collision to get the atmosphere to actually change.  

Excluding the rogue Nemesis hypothesis .... it way be that just a subtle tendency for the Euro to vestigially reach back to its old SW deep bias years ...it might be just enough too amped with the Rocky's trough to allow S/W's to keep their identities post ejections. It's a negative feedback ...when it ejects a parcel of wave mechanics that summarily gets damped to nothing in too much down stream ridging..  

Contrasting, the GFS family or heritage of guidance types tend to have a progressive complexion over all...and that may actually help matters because they then transport S/W through less subtended ridging ...

I mean, remove the Euro's cold air mass over Canada, and they're be nothing stopping cherry blossoms to Maine.  But even in the Euro's more amped SE ridge appeal, it has cold bleeds and wedge highs...  

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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Both systems ground to a pulp....the second one does give a little bit of snow and ice...but we're talking not even a half inch of QPF.

What a winter:frostymelt:.....I'm out and ready for spring, I am sure we will get that 8 inch snow in March at 35 degrees that melts the next day that will help the "stats".... I have 2 kids "sledding" right now without sleds, the ice is sort of impressive...., they have sled 3 times this year, once in November with real sleds, the past 2 times have been without sleds, on ice.

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