RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 eps pumping the epo + scandi blocking into Greenland but.....SE ridge and WC trough be stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 BOX = partly sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 With a glacial white landscape and something to track for next week, we take in the land of the have-nots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Sell GFS and GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: BOX = partly sunny Euro =BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sell GFS and GEM. All in for futility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sell GFS and GEM. Interesting that the entire world suite including UKMET has measurable Monday. All 3 WW2 models too. Eps only has a 12% chance of 1 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 56 minutes ago, powderfreak said: At this point it certainly isn't luck. It's just almost straight La Niña gradient pattern. SNE should've had a bit more snow but it's hard to deny there's something in this pattern that's caused the same areas (BTV to CAR and southern Ontario/Quebec) to snow big almost exclusively from early November through now mid-February. This winter hasn't been the luck of an unmanned firehose, these storms are all repeating themselves. There has to be good synoptic reasoning somewhere for that. I look forward to your post mortem thoughts. No, a la nina like long wave pattern isn't luck....agreed. However not getting a higher volume of more prolific SWFE a la 2007-2008 is. Some have whiffed south, too.....the streaks are bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: All in for futility? Whatever happens, happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Interesting that the entire world suite including UKMET has measurable Monday. All 3 WW2 models too. Eps only has a 12% chance of 1 inch 6z looked a bit better. I'm sure they'll be some sort of a compromise, but I wouldn't buy the GFS or GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 It would be nice to get an all snow 2-4” event. Like tying my tooth to a string and wrapping it around the doorknob this winter.....it shouldn’t be this painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Whatever happens, happens. I know it’s been a tough time emotionally in your household but feelings aside.....do you see some positives to close out the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 I don't even know why we bother looking at other models, just stick to the EC for long range and then the HRRR as we're on the door step of the event.... Sell everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I know it’s been a tough time emotionally in your household but feelings aside.....do you see some positives to close out the month? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ? I had the same thought..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: I think this has potential sorry it sucked for NYC. Nice little Miller B Charts FTW ! And that ain’t luck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Happy VD. Hold on to your massive pack, SNE (except for James and the rest of the Cape, and islands). It will be just a dream soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: At this point it certainly isn't luck. It's just almost straight La Niña gradient pattern. SNE should've had a bit more snow but it's hard to deny there's something in this pattern that's caused the same areas (BTV to CAR and southern Ontario/Quebec) to snow big almost exclusively from early November through now mid-February. This winter hasn't been the luck of an unmanned firehose, these storms are all repeating themselves. There has to be good synoptic reasoning somewhere for that. I look forward to your post mortem thoughts. Agreed X 10 would add that it was also very much good luck (more than our “bad”) that the SE got smoked in that biggie. put the tropical forcing in the same exact spots, have the La Niña circulation and I would put my money (again)we go big gradient again and again and again and again . Mayybe SNE scores 20% more snow than this year ( no big deal imo) this would still be identified as a NNE( up and in favored pattern) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I know it’s been a tough time emotionally in your household but feelings aside.....do you see some positives to close out the month? I assume you mean because of winter? It does look a little more favorable late month into 3/10 or so. After that, I hear whispers of a possible warm stretch, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Agreed X 10 would add that it was also very much good luck (more than our “bad”) that the SE got smoked in that biggie. put the tropical forcing in the same exact spots, have the La Niña circulation and I would put my money (again)we go big gradient again and again and again and again . Mayybe SNE scores 20% more snow than this year ( no big deal imo) this would still be identified as a NNE( up and in favored pattern) Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ? 36 minutes ago, weathafella said: I had the same thought..... His daily melts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I assume you mean because of winter? It does look a little more favorable late month into 3/10 or so. After that, I hear whispers of a possible warm stretch, but who knows. Can we squeeze in a big event, just one? Like the reverse of 11/12 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Teleconnection summary PNA not looking good staying negative possible positive day 15 NAO looks good going negative and staying negative through day 16 AO not looking good staying positive possible negative day 15 MJO looks good stays in 8 low amplitude throughout. Day 16 looks to sag close to the COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Yippee, back to tracking day 6/7 systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 And to think yesterday morning when things were looking "Snowy" for Sunday night/Monday, and again Wednesday, there was mention of starting a thread for one of these...thank goodness we didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Agreed X 10 would add that it was also very much good luck (more than our “bad”) that the SE got smoked in that biggie. put the tropical forcing in the same exact spots, have the La Niña circulation and I would put my money (again)we go big gradient again and again and again and again . Mayybe SNE scores 20% more snow than this year ( no big deal imo) this would still be identified as a NNE( up and in favored pattern) The original assumptions we all made were wrong. LR and Medium rangers have ions to go before snowfall predictably gets anywhere close. My 8 week forecast was my worst ever. I knew extreme cold would come based on the pattern what I didnt know was it was transient and that was made with preconceived notions. The idea that luck played any part is ridiculous. We were above normal in precip and temp and this time it equated to rain, that happens all the time in history. Its not chaos its simply how the hemispheric pattern set up. Plain and simple it was mistook ahead of time. I wouldn't say give me that pattern and it would snow alot because if we had the same exact pattern you would get the same exact result. No excuses we saw something that wasn't there but may I add yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The last man standing has folded. I'm not sure that is entirely true.. that excerpt "...if not everyone in the Meteorological community..." wrt to winter forecasts having failed better returns. Assuming his context is snow and cold. I saw/read antithetic leading seasonal forecasts too. I recall a pretty clear tendency to "elide" those outlooks in the general consuming audience of hobbyist, and even many among the more professional circuitry. The subjective culture would rather be taken in by the more appealing tsunamis of gelid, glacial guess work ... Heh... it was a triple-G winter.. "Guess work" ... that word choice is not there to deride or even impugn anyone's brow-rubbing efforts. That is sarcasm to the objective reader and should be taken with humility and humor. That said, let's be blunt and honest, ... There are no 1::1 correlations in this game. There has to be an element of educated guessing... And one such assumption: people fancied a weak if not even moderate El Nino, maturing during the winter. Even NCEP was advertising this .. Oh, I'm sure the ambit of the minds, from the officiate ranks, to the private sector and back ... all had their various cogent reasons. Some even wrote quite convincing turns of phrase. Without getting into invalidating anyone's method .. just generically, there were two concerns with not only using that, but using that as a scaffold for constructing a seasonal outlook. 1 .. There was no El Nino during the autumn ... which for newly arriving El Ninos, that's actually not atypical? It's true...statistics amply show that they tend to mature in late winters and early spring.. Well, logically, ...how, then, is a weak El Ninos forcing effecting late Novie, thru December and January when it's not even "weak" until early Martch? Intuitively, most of that winter ... is gone, gobbled up while waiting. Adding to that, there is some question now arriving whether El Nino really will take place at all. No surprise, pretty much at no point to-date, has NCEP's observation net detected evidence that ENSO has sufficiently coupled to the atmospheric circulation medium over the broad expanse of the Pacific. What that means in lay-terms is that any seasonal outlook heavily guided - not saying that was Isotherm or you or whomever, just in general - by ENSO forcing were summarily rendered dubious at best as that reality emerged. There are mixed errors in that... One part of it isn't really the fault of the seasonal outlook engineer. The failure of the warm ENSO maturation (to-date) and the concomitant lack of atmospheric coupled state ... "to me" those are not really foreseeable beyond accidental ("luck" as some begrudgingly argue as of late) intangible results. However, the idea that El Nino would be a clearer force in modulating the characteristic of the hemispheric scope was flawed (potentially) and too anticipated, too fast. I also have a separate point of contention wrt to the Pacific SST/ ENSO and all that... and it has to do with preponderant, homogenized warming of the atmosphere that is empirically measured on Earth ( ) ...spanning a hundred years of growth and is apparently accelerating. If the air is warmer... (and that includes the amount of DP in the air already existing when said air moves over warm body of water) there is going to be less heat added to that air because of physical law. Well, less heat added to the air means you are not actually changing that air as much... so, the SST are less effective at modulating the air, that air does not gradate as largely... Weaker resulting gradient = weaker responses. The idea here is that I personally believe the El Nino (or any El Nino for that matter) that is "weak" in character, risk being overly assessed as a forcing mechanism. Anyway, I only fault the seasonal outlook community on parts of all the above. I do agree that the Pacific is the problem for winter enthusiasts this year though. Evidence in that fact that we've had ample cold...certainly enough for history to have been made - not historic destructive interference.. The EPO and AO have been sufficient at delivering mid -latitude cold to date. But I was just commenting to Will yesterday that the more I personally reflect on matters ..this has been a crippling -PNAP winter... That's slightly different than PNA ...but closely relates. Anyway, the orientation of the flow structure over N/A is obviously heavily guided by Pacific so having a dearth of ridging along 100 to 110 west probably has roots there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 52 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Teleconnection summary PNA not looking good staying negative possible positive day 15 NAO looks good going negative and staying negative through day 16 AO not looking good staying positive possible negative day 15 MJO looks good stays in 8 low amplitude throughout. Day 16 looks to sag close to the COD. I’ll take the -NAO and run with it. First significant -NAO since beginning of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 It's a good thing we have the EPO or else it'd be getting really ugly. I'm selling a stable -NAO until we actually get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I’ll take the -NAO and run with it. First significant -NAO since beginning of the year. Agreed. Looking solely at Teleconnections and CFS March might be ok. Typical 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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