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NorEastermass128

February 2019 Discussion I

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Forgive if this has already been brought up ...

but, has anyone taken note of the extraordinary high pressure arming into the nation's midriff ? 

There's nodal 1048 to 1050 center in western WI this last hour... No wonder we're getting so many fantastic wind gust back east.

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At this point it looks like a cutter for the 15th but definite differences between euro and GFS placement and strength of that low. Euro is weaker over WNY and GFS winds it up further west. Maybe we can hold onto some of what falls mid-week.

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Most guidance had been showing pretty decent CAD with the late week system until the 12z euro. This is the first run that truly torches us. Reminds me of the storm a few days after 1/20 that annihilated us with 2" of rain and 55F temps. The euro today is almost a carbon copy. 

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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most guidance had been showing pretty decent CAD with the late week system until the 12z euro. This is the first run that truly torches us. Reminds me of the storm a few days after 1/20 that annihilated us with 2" of rain and 55F temps. The euro today is almost a carbon copy. 

At least it isn’t until Friday.  I want to give my school ski club one decent Thursday evening

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10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

At least it isn’t until Friday.  I want to give my school ski club one decent Thursday evening

Thursday should be good. Light winds and not too cold and likely plenty of new snow. Any ZR should be groomed out by then. 

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50 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

At least it isn’t until Friday.  I want to give my school ski club one decent Thursday evening

A torched rainer would make sense going into one of the biggest ski weekends of the year.

I'm supposed to be in N Conway Fri - Tues. 

:axe:

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the pattern being so elongated (anomalous) like that ...with narrow latitude waves racing along ... the spatial-temporal layouts per panel should be taken with a heavier dose of incredulity.  We got outside sliders along California while a contiguous broad trough is loaded down wind with s/waves... It's a very unstable look.  Talk about buck-shot.  Seems pretty ripe for error

Not that anyone asked but ... I think the later Tuesday and then Friday wave spaces are essentially correct; but as to the details ...?  meh.   Particularly in the latter case, as presently laid out ...not something one should be 'disappointed' or 'happy' with one way or the other.

 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most guidance had been showing pretty decent CAD with the late week system until the 12z euro. This is the first run that truly torches us. Reminds me of the storm a few days after 1/20 that annihilated us with 2" of rain and 55F temps. The euro today is almost a carbon copy. 

EPS shows that 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most guidance had been showing pretty decent CAD with the late week system until the 12z euro. This is the first run that truly torches us. Reminds me of the storm a few days after 1/20 that annihilated us with 2" of rain and 55F temps. The euro today is almost a carbon copy. 

That would keep the monthly streak of 50s dews going. 

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1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Not according to my GYX zone. :blahblah::snowman::hurrbear::raining::weep:

It was the best of times (far NNE) it was the worst of times (S coast of SNE) 

throw enuf QPF at N Maine N NH and N VT AOA 1500’ And they bang 

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Euro would rain well into Quebec. But there's some other solutions that are much more CADish that could give some front end snows and interior icing. The trend has been warmer though on the late week system so it needs to reverse to entertain more wintry solutions. The coast has really never been in the game and even interior SNE has been marginal even on the coldest solutions. But CNE/NNE could end up wintry if we go back toward the non-euro solutions. 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most guidance had been showing pretty decent CAD with the late week system until the 12z euro. This is the first run that truly torches us. Reminds me of the storm a few days after 1/20 that annihilated us with 2" of rain and 55F temps. The euro today is almost a carbon copy. 

#thiswintersucksweenies

I wonder where this winter's rainfall would place it in comparison to a list of wet springs.  To be sure, not a high ranking, but I wouldn't be suprised if it were above normal.  Our rainers have been hefty ones.

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2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

A torched rainer would make sense going into one of the biggest ski weekends of the year.

I'm supposed to be in N Conway Fri - Tues. 

:axe:

I feel you, I have a trip planned to go up to island pond that weekend......

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46 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

I feel you, I have a trip planned to go up to island pond that weekend......

April’s Maple in Canaan, VT today around noon.  

91014144-56E1-4ADC-80DD-B88BBBFD021A.png

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12 minutes ago, mreaves said:

April’s Maple in Canaan, VT today around noon.  

Awesome! It will be my first time heading up to northern Vermont to ride so I’m pumped, ride on man

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6 hours ago, Greg said:

This winter never really got going. <_<

Out west it did- they had 3 consecutive slow starts, they were overdue. Sometimes it pays not to overthink thinks and play the averages. 

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30 minutes ago, alex said:

How is it that GYX doesn't even mention the possibility of rain late next week? 

Probably mostly focused on the midweek system.

But I didn't say it wouldn't rain on the overnight shift last night:

WE STAY ACTIVE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...WITH ANOTHER TROF FOLLOWING FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS TIME MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT WE DO NOT HAVE A FAVORABLY POSITIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO HOLD COLD IN PLACE. WE DO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK HOWEVER...WITH THE 09.00Z ECMWF TAKING A SRN TRACK AND WHILE IT IS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE HAS MORE COLD AIR THAN THE 09.00Z GFS. A HIGH POP FORECAST BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PTYPE.

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45 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Probably mostly focused on the midweek system.

But I didn't say it wouldn't rain on the overnight shift last night:

WE STAY ACTIVE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...WITH ANOTHER TROF FOLLOWING FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS TIME MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT WE DO NOT HAVE A FAVORABLY POSITIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO HOLD COLD IN PLACE. WE DO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK HOWEVER...WITH THE 09.00Z ECMWF TAKING A SRN TRACK AND WHILE IT IS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE HAS MORE COLD AIR THAN THE 09.00Z GFS. A HIGH POP FORECAST BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PTYPE.

Yep. But today it reads:

 

"The progressive pattern continues with high pressure building immediately back into the region on Thursday allowing for sunshine and high to reach above freezing. Another chance for snow moves in late Friday into Saturday."

I'm not trying to be annoying but it seems weird if anything that today's shift would just ignore last night's AFD, combined with model trends, and not mention the possibility at all. I get the need to focus on this first system, but it's not like anyone is asking for an hour by hour play. With rain being more likely than snow as it seems right now, it seems sloppy not to even mention the possibility. Just some feedback. That's all. :)

 

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Just now, alex said:

Yep. But today it reads:

 

"The progressive pattern continues with high pressure building immediately back into the region on Thursday allowing for sunshine and high to reach above freezing. Another chance for snow moves in late Friday into Saturday."

I'm not trying to be annoying but it seems weird if anything that today's shift would just ignore last night's AFD, combined with model trends, and not mention the possibility at all. I get the need to focus on this first system, but it's not like anyone is asking for an hour by hour play. But with rain being more likely than snow as it seems right now, it seems sloppy not to even mention the possibility. 

Yeah, not great. Digging into the grids it's even uglier than it looks.

We have the warm temps, but it's a 12 hour weather grid so it takes the average temp. That's just enough to sneak under the threshold for all snow (usually 34).

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