40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: That run actually snows really heavily down to about EEN to MHT in NH ... and probably cat paws into the Worcester Hills... it's been 'hinting' at more commitment to secondary, but I tell you what... The main reason why the primary is so dominant in that entire ordeal is because there's actually too much northern stream mechanical awesomeness carving S like an errant galaxy from N of the Lakes.... That's a... b, there's just no ridging over the Rockies... It's been the rudimentary cause for all these lakes cutters ...which is also tantamount to saying the R-wave configuration is just aligned too far W..with ridging along or just off the west coast in the means... the natural couple flow nadir supports a Chi Town winter... That is the problem this season....the EPO just means we will have a cold supply. But we need either a PNA or an NAO, or else we get this season....granted they could have been snowier than they have, but those are the breaks. 2005 and 2015 had the PNA ridging....1969 had the NAO blocking. This season is what we risk when you have neither. 2008 is what happens when you have neither and luck out. This season happens when you have neither and do not luck out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 That is what I missed this season.....I was all over the meager, 1969 like MEI, but I never thought the blocking would be a no-show. I think the SSW really messed that up. I also should have hit the meager MEI/RNA angle a la 1969 harder than I did....I ended up factoring it in, especially with the call for December, but I ultimately went with a mean of the analog years later in the season, which entailed a PNA becoming prevalent. It would have taken balls to go all out 1969, and I tried to play it safe. The SSW I just missed....probably should have known better with the cited Noive Scandinavian blocking. I think we really need to work on forecasting where SSW will be focused, after seeing how they can manifest as deconstructive interference to blocking in the event that they augment a hostile intraseasonal MJO signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is what I missed this season.....I was all over the meager, 1969 like MEI, but I never thought the blocking would be a no-show. I think the SSW really messed that up. I also should have hit the meager MEI/RNA angle a la 1969 harder than I did....I ended up factoring it in, especially with the call for December, but I ultimately went with a mean of the analog years later in the season, which entailed a PNA becoming prevalent. It would have taken balls to go all out 1969, and I tried to play it safe. The SSW I just missed....probably should have known better with the cited Noive Scandinavian blocking. I think we really need to work on forecasting where SSW will be focused, after seeing how they can manifest as deconstructive interference to blocking in the event that they augment a hostile intraseasonal MJO signal. Then another year something else will be out if sync. Unforecastable 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 I personally think the -QBO turning to a +QBO in December played a big role in not allowing the -NAO to manifes properly. I saw this coming months ago but chose to ignore it. I have neglected the importance of the QBO in the past and yet again it burns me. For years to come I will respect the position of the QBO in the fall months, and the continuing direction throughout the winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Sometimes weather will just be weather. No index, voodoo science etc will forecast it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Then another year something else will be out if sync. Unforecastable It's difficult, and everyone will always have misses, but I'm 3/5...not bad imo. All we can do is keep trying to improve...never will be 100% success rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 20 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: I personally think the -QBO turning to a +QBO in December played a big role in not allowing the -NAO to manifes properly. I saw this coming months ago but chose to ignore it. I have neglected the importance of the QBO in the past and yet again it burns me. For years to come I will respect the position of the QBO in the fall months, and the continuing direction throughout the winter months. We have had seasons with similar QBO progressions that went gangbusters. And the fact that we had a SSW is a sign that it wasn't the QBO imo. The main reason that I didn't forecast a SSW was the QBO...oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 The real challenge is trying to discern which factors to focus in on....not unlike coming up with a game plan in football imo. Like a puzzle..seasonal forecasting is cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 The real challenge is trying to discern which factors to focus in on....not unlike coming up with a game plan in football imo. Like a puzzle..seasonal forecasting is cool.Ray from a newbie who lurks - thank you. You had a great write-up that you obviously spent a huge amount of time on. Your writing (and others in this thread) are very educational. Seasonal forecasting is hard but I love reading the winter outlooks. Keep em coming ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like the 18z EPS is coming around to the GFS for Wed night. Yawn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's difficult, and everyone will always have misses, but I'm 3/5...not bad imo. All we can do is keep trying to improve...never will be 100% success rate. "I'm 3/5." What would you be if you flipped a coin ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, kdxken said: "I'm 3/5." What would you be if you flipped a coin ? The analogy doesn't make any sense because outlooks are not a 50/50 proposition with the level of detail that I provide. Even in the other one that I "missed"...I nailed the mid atl blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We have had seasons with similar QBO progressions that went gangbusters. And the fact that we had a SSW is a sign that it wasn't the QBO imo. The main reason that I didn't forecast a SSW was the QBO...oops. 94-95 was an El Niño with similar QBO that lines up very similar to this season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Just now, Powderboy413 said: 94-95 was an El Niño with similar QBO that lines up very similar to this season... Nothing like this year, aside from the low snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's difficult, and everyone will always have misses, but I'm 3/5...not bad imo. All we can do is keep trying to improve...never will be 100% success rate. Hopefully I am around in 25 years when you will have a database score high enough to be considered for validity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The analogy doesn't make any sense because outlooks are not a 50/50 proposition with the level of detail that I provide. Even in the other one that I "missed"...I nailed the mid atl blizzard. Level of detail is meaningless if it's wrong . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 I appreciate the work that goes into LR outlooks but with so many of the same predictors teleconnections it gets to be mundane reading them. I fully admit to scrolling to the end to see what their winter call is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You're right. The other three were lucky guesses. Surely you're bound to catch a break on one of your 6 week calls. Thats not what I meant Mr snowflake lol geezus you can be so sensitive when it comes to your outlooks. Purely statistical post lol geez 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Thats not what I meant Mr snowflake lol geezus you can be so sensitive when it comes to your outlooks. Purely statistical post lol geez TBH, there is always luck involved...even in the hits. I lucked out in 2015 hitting the snowfall and missing the NAO. It evens out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I appreciate the work that goes into LR outlooks but with so many of the same predictors teleconnections it gets to be mundane reading them. I fully admit to scrolling to the end to see what their winter call is. Yea...I have been thinking about what I can do to mitigate the Tip effect. I like the educational part for those that have the time and interest, but I need to come up with something more tailored for public consumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Overcast and 31.6F here. Precipitation looks very spotty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Gfs and GGEM both have back to back events 2/27-28 and 3/1. Def a volatile setup. But they somehow agreed on the 00z run. Won't be staying up for the other guidance but I'd expect the euro to trend toward the 2/27-28 event more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Gfs and GGEM both have back to back events 2/27-28 and 3/1. Def a volatile setup. But they somehow agreed on the 00z run. Won't be staying up for the other guidance but I'd expect the euro to trend toward the 2/27-28 event more. I'll be up...will have a look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Our classic "cutters" are those strong lows that shoot through the ern great lakes or NY state. Those do not have a redeveloper and offer little if any winter wx in SNE. What the GFS shows is similar to what we have had this winter. Yeah, I know they're not technically cutters, like I said before. What would these storms that we've been having all winter that redevelop be called/considered? A SWFE that track to the west of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea...I have been thinking about what I can do to mitigate the Tip effect. I like the educational part for those that have the time and interest, but I need to come up with something more tailored for public consumption. You provide a fantastic educational resource, do not change a thing. I am just an old codger who has read hundreds of these over the years. As far as 2015 and NAO goes I have my biggest issue with people who use monthly indicators to say oh we scored big and the NAO was positive for the month of Feb, when in fact if you delve into dailies you see a transient block on the days of the biggest storms . Recent examples are Feb 13 Feb 15 and March last year. Heres the rub, it is nearly impossible to forecast months in advance transient blocks. They can pop up out of the blue or disappear overnight. The biggest wildcard in the deck. All it takes is a 2 day ridge to turn a mundane 6 to 10 storm into a 18 to 24. If you loop the Atlantic this season you can see these blocks pop up in the Middle of the ocean slowing the monster sub 960 storms out there. Deep storms can pop ridges slowing themselves down too. Just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 And they all agree on a weekend disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You provide a fantastic educational resource, do not change a thing. I am just an old codger who has read hundreds of these over the years. As far as 2015 and NAO goes I have my biggest issue with people who use monthly indicators to say oh we scored big and the NAO was positive for the month of Feb, when in fact if you delve into dailies you see a transient block on the days of the biggest storms . Recent examples are Feb 13 Feb 15 and March last year. Heres the rub, it is nearly impossible to forecast months in advance transient blocks. They can pop up out of the blue or disappear overnight. The biggest wildcard in the deck. All it takes is a 2 day ridge to turn a mundane 6 to 10 storm into a 18 to 24. If you loop the Atlantic this season you can see these blocks pop up in the Middle of the ocean slowing the monster sub 960 storms out there. Deep storms can pop ridges slowing themselves down too. Just my opinion I get that, and you are right, but its just easier to get big events during blocked patterns/seasons. That's all. Just as it is with track...more is left to chance, but lack of blocking is not prohibitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 FV3 doesn’t look bad at least for my area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said: Yeah, I know they're not technically cutters, like I said before. What would these storms that we've been having all winter that redevelop be called/considered? A SWFE that track to the west of us? They're called a special kind of screw job......they have been there all season and continue to give us the big middle finger......its incredible really....I just watched the 0z GFS and threw up a little in my mouth......the consistency is unbelievable..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Euro actually gives me at least an inch of snow on the front end of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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