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NorEastermass128

February 2019 Discussion I

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I thought I asked Scott yesterday if the Euro ridge has weakened in last couple runs ....(ya kno the one will was posting about w graphics) how it’s a monster and centered over land in west and the downstream trough was over OHIO valley ...

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The only shot we have for us to have a series of sizeable snow events is if I opt to NOT buy a snow-blower.  Given the date, I'm tempted to postpone until next year--though perhaps I can get an end-of-the season blow-out blitz deal.

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Nothing exciting on the models at all. Looks like the good pattern that people thought that was coming is going to fail.

 

Hopefully things change but this winter has been awful with tons of busts.

 

Bring on baseball. First game is today =)

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I thought I asked Scott yesterday if the Euro ridge has weakened in last couple runs ....(ya kno the one will was posting about w graphics) how it’s a monster and centered over land in west and the downstream trough was over OHIO valley ...

The ridge didn't. The problem is what Tip and I said. The zonal trough sandwich across the CONUS with ridging in Canada and Mexico. So picture pretty oranges and reds in Canada and across the TX,SW US area...with blues in between, That's usually not good. What may change is for next weekend as a piece of the PV dives into the Plains while one of the s/w troughs out west retros enough to pump ridging into the Rockies (albeit weak). This allows that piece of the PV to dive into the Plains and give us some sort of precip perhaps next weekend. Everything is low confidence because the pattern is a clusterphuck.

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Monday is consistent 40-47kts on NAM and GFS for mixing weakest winds. That's about as good as it gets. Upper echelon mixing is over 60kts. I wouldn't go that high, but 45-50kts (55-60mph) looks very attainable. Not often you can say that.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The ridge didn't. The problem is what Tip and I said. The zonal trough sandwich across the CONUS with ridging in Canada and Mexico. So picture pretty oranges and reds in Canada and across the TX,SW US area...with blues in between, That's usually not good. What may change is for next weekend as a piece of the PV dives into the Plains while one of the s/w troughs out west retros enough to pump ridging into the Rockies (albeit weak). This allows that piece of the PV to dive into the Plains and give us some sort of precip perhaps next weekend. Everything is low confidence because the pattern is a clusterphuck.

The Pac is just horrendous. The models were showing it getting better with a huge epo ridge. Now the models are backing off that idea and it's back to cutter city.

Don't worry , we will get out -NAO during spring .

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Trough sandwich with fast zonal flow across the CONUS. But yeah, looks like there will be cold and wintry events for the next 10-14 days. Hopefully we can spring it up a bit after 3/10-15 and get into a pattern where if it’s going to snow...it’s just barely cold enough.

44A77311-42DC-469D-A2BB-AE240F0DEF3B.png

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I was considering raising this winters grade, then I saw another 33F Rainer for Sunday . F no.

This winter is absolutely an F...a low one at that.  Just to get a D- we need a KU

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50 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Yup.  And almost everyone was dismissing the GFS and riding the EC.  We all know how wrong that decision was.

Meanwhile, I just realized our power lines run along our back boundary.  As there are no utility poles on the street I thought perhaps ORH had run things underground since I had last lived here.  Not sure what that means for outages, but I imagine there is less effort to keep trees pruned when it requires going on folks' properties than it does when they're on the street.

No way will ORH run underground lines...that would cost insane money.   Maybe in new housing areas, but not retrofitting.   

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Monday is consistent 40-47kts on NAM and GFS for mixing weakest winds. That's about as good as it gets. Upper echelon mixing is over 60kts. I wouldn't go that high, but 45-50kts (55-60mph) looks very attainable. Not often you can say that.

Is it all day morning to dark? Or is it centered on warmest part of day in afternoon?

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35 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nothing exciting on the models at all. Looks like the good pattern that people thought that was coming is going to fail.

 

Hopefully things change but this winter has been awful with tons of busts.

 

Bring on baseball. First game is today =)

 

22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Trough sandwich with fast zonal flow across the CONUS. But yeah, looks like there will be cold and wintry events for the next 10-14 days. Hopefully we can spring it up a bit after 3/10-15 and get into a pattern where if it’s going to snow...it’s just barely cold enough.

44A77311-42DC-469D-A2BB-AE240F0DEF3B.png

:unsure:

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24 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The Pac is just horrendous. The models were showing it getting better with a huge epo ridge. Now the models are backing off that idea and it's back to cutter city.

Don't worry , we will get out -NAO during spring .

EPO is massive. It’s just that it’s a ball shaped ridge with troughing under it. It’s actually a true block. 

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12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

No way will ORH run underground lines...that would cost insane money.   Maybe in new housing areas, but not retrofitting.   

Yeah--I would have been surprised.  I hadn't realized there weren't any on the street until I noticed them running along the back boundary.

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is it all day morning to dark? Or is it centered on warmest part of day in afternoon?

I’d say from like 9a-3p. 

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1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

 

:unsure:

It still looks very good for New England but not down here.

It could probably snow in the summer in NNE.

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That trough sandwich is reeking havoc with timing on models. They’ll be something, but good lord that’s complicated. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Many white pines down?

We get 50-60 a lot, but this will be widespread. So the interior will partake, esp hills.

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Nothing exciting on the models at all. Looks like the good pattern that people thought that was coming is going to fail.

 

Hopefully things change but this winter has been awful with tons of busts.

 

Bring on baseball. First game is today =)

Do you always copy and paste you posts from Association of Weather Enthusiasts here? Lol

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you always copy and paste you posts from Association of Weather Enthusiasts here? Lol

I'm on 8 different weather forums. It's easier to copy and paste to all of them.

  • Haha 1

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We get 50-60 a lot, but this will be widespread. So the interior will partake, esp hills.

You know about planes and stuff.....think many flights will be cancelled Monday?

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8 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

You know about planes and stuff.....think many flights will be cancelled Monday?

I don’t think so, but boy it’s gonna be rough all over the NE the lower several thousand feet. If gusts get near 50kts or higher (which may happen in spots) we could see delays or cancellations. I could see a lot of delays due to wind. 

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