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NorEastermass128

February 2019 Discussion I

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EPS continue to look good for Mar 2 ad Mar 4-5....they show a really weak sig for 2/27....but it's still a miss. We're gonna have to hope the Euro and its ensembles are just wrong on that threat like they were for the 2/18 threat at 4-5 days out. It doesn't happen that often though.

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Just now, Whineminster said:

I think MPM should make a thread for the Saturday night/Sunday deal since it'll be his first ORH Hills big ice event. 

It doesn't look like a big deal....maybe a few hours of glaze and a tenth or two of accretion. Those are a dime a dozen in ORH.

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56 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Its a lot of parts that are disjointed at that time, it has something cooking at Day 9 in the midwest right after the swing and miss. Probably better not to be a bullseye at this point since we all know how that has worked out so far this year. That day 7-10 periods seems ripe for something, definitely a window for something more "substantial" than this year has produced.

Also that period of time has a lot of southern stream moisture being worked into the equation...lots of cold to the north, lots of moisture to the south hopefully they can combine into something nice here and not over the plains...the southeast ridge seems to be beaten down at that time too.

But even that late system...it does ..or hints strongly like it's going to, do the same thing.   It has plenty of space in the south for plumbing a deeper anomaly on down, and it even has a block in NW Canada to help force that to happen, yet it dangles powerful wave spacing precipitously over the Lakes and somehow it holds it at that latitude... 

Yet, at other times, it doesn't have the compression available in the south...and it doesn't have a blocking mechanism in NW Canada to force things S, yet like that run three days ago, ...it somehow melon balls the troposphere 'nough to stem wind a bomb on the MA... 

we'll see -

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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS continue to look good for Mar 2 ad Mar 4-5....they show a really weak sig for 2/27....but it's still a miss. We're gonna have to hope the Euro and its ensembles are just wrong on that threat like they were for the 2/18 threat at 4-5 days out. It doesn't happen that often though.

I'm wondering if that's the last hurrah for this winter... barring something that's really fluky in bowling season.  Heh, been a while since we've have a dynamical blue beaut ...  I remember the one in 1987 ...like way back then.  It was deep enough into the spring that leafs on the broad leaf sugar maples were half unfurled ...  Course there's 1997 and 1977 ... Hey, maybe it's a 1 very 10 year thing... So, we're owed three of them - haha

But, this is different than last year. We are not getting the whole scale relaxation to go along with the blocking ( in this case...the EPO... last year was the NAO...etc...) ...it's why we are getting more smearing of mid and extended range chances.  I remember last year, those nor'easters in March really were well handled at fairly long leads... Anyway, I just wonder if when the EPO fades off around March 10 or whatever, if there's nothing left... like in 2014.. the big huge coastal bomb that rolled all the cold up with it and that was it... 

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47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It doesn't look like a big deal....maybe a few hours of glaze and a tenth or two of accretion. Those are a dime a dozen in ORH.

Looks like even less than that here in Enfield.

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd be fine with this winter ending...so sick of the EPO 2-4" deals...either produce something noteworthy, or get on with spring.

Well... fwiw - I've always felt that the previous peregrinations with the EPO were sorta "bootlegish" ...

It just always seemed to me the previous EPOs were there numerically ...not so much synoptically so structured - probably owing to the domain space defaulting negative phase because of stuff going on around it... if that makes any sense?   It's kind of like when the MJO makes the AO negative... when the AO heights don't look that way - it's basically because storminess at mid latitudes is enhancing the easterly trades up there around 55 N and those easterlies trip the EOFs into a negative mode... something like that...  But those shenanigans may be more what's ad nauseam. 

This one looks more bona fide structured, with obvious blocking nodal Alaskan sector and migrant through the NW Territories ...more climate friendly to winter enthusiast liking. It's entirely possible that global models are not yet fully responding to that forcing just yet.  Also, the PNA relaxing toward neutral appears clad, and that's also changing the landscape a little.  

I get it though...  hot dogs, stadium beer, home runs and daisy dukes are a much better alternative to any sort of unfulfilled promises.   To that ... I can only say, no promises being leveled... But, this is a different look for a couple of weeks just the same.  

 

 

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Awful.

 When I saw the 2m temperature anomaly maps you were the first person I thought of because I know how much you love late winter dry and Arctic.

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well... fwiw - I've always felt that the previous peregrinations with the EPO were sorta "bootlegish" ...

It just always seemed to me the previous EPOs were there numerically ...not so much synoptically so structured - probably owing to the domain space defaulting negative phase because of stuff going on around it... if that makes any sense?   It's kind of like when the MJO makes the AO negative... when the AO heights don't look that way - it's basically because storminess at mid latitudes is enhancing the easterly trades up there around 55 N and those easterlies trip the EOFs into a negative mode... something like that...  But those shenanigans may be more what's ad nauseam. 

This one looks more bona fide structured, with obvious blocking nodal Alaskan sector and migrant through the NW Territories ...more climate friendly to winter enthusiast liking. It's entirely possible that global models are not yet fully responding to that forcing just yet.  Also, the PNA relaxing toward neutral appears clad, and that's also changing the landscape a little.  

I get it though...  hot dogs, stadium beer, home runs and daisy dukes are a much better alternative to any sort of unfulfilled promises.   To that ... I can only say, no promises being leveled... But, this is a different look for a couple of weeks just the same.  

 

 

Yea, I agree. Thankfully if this still fails to produce, we are getting into mid March and it should be about over and easier to shrug off.

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 When I saw the 2m temperature anomaly maps you were the first person I thought of because I know how much you love late winter dry and Arctic.

March 2006, 2014 and 2015 were awful for that...at least IMBY.

Winter really is a miserable season if it doesn't behave-

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

March 2006, 2014 and 2015 were awful for that...at least IMBY.

Winter really is a miserable season if it doesn't behave-

Even worse when your expecting a memorable finish and it doesn’t produce

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I agree. Thenkfully if this still fails to produce, we are getting into mid March and it should be about over and easier to shrug off.

Yeah agree that sentiment as well...  In fact, let it bitch and piss cryonics all it wants at this time of year ... it's like a super nova?   The core of the stellar body starts fusing iron and that's the ball game - it ends really quickly.  It's fascinating ... The star can fuse heavier elements for a billion years, but the instant it hits the iron cycle... game over!  within minutes the core implodes,... but, the outer layers of the star may take up to 10 hours to even respond...  

That's what post Feb 20 is like as a metaphor... The winter is dead, but it takes between 10 days to 10 weeks depending... before the atmosphere responds ... a time in which the fires of passion may rage unaware that its foundation is gone.  

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Mama said knock it out 

OiED2PN.jpg

I haven't been paying too close attention to this but just on the surface ...  (pun intended...) this looks like it may mix pretty high and there may be some momentum fluxing.  CAA instability style... I don't see a lot of iso b type pulsing but the general advection terms are impressive amid a lot of gradient nonetheless. 

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Extreme weenie modelology here, but I've found taking the peak MOS wind number and doubling it gives you a good estimation for max gusts (mph). FWIW, lots of 25-30 numbers for Mon.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Extreme weenie modelology here, but I've found taking the peak MOS wind number and doubling it gives you a good estimation for max gusts (mph). FWIW, lots of 25-30 numbers for Mon.

lol, Pretty common winds out of the NW on the backside of storm systems.....meh.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Extreme weenie modelology here, but I've found taking the peak MOS wind number and doubling it gives you a good estimation for max gusts (mph). FWIW, lots of 25-30 numbers for Mon.

55-60?

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To me the typical backside numbers are like 45-55. Mixing is really good Monday/ at least to 850. 925 is 50kts. That’s good for lots of 50-60mph. Maybe a tad higher is we really can maximize mixing.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

To me the typical backside numbers are like 45-55. Mixing is really good Monday/ at least to 850. 925 is 50kts. That’s good for lots of 50-60mph. Maybe a tad higher is we really can maximize mixing.

70?

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

To me the typical backside numbers are like 45-55. Mixing is really good Monday/ at least to 850. 925 is 50kts. That’s good for lots of 50-60mph. Maybe a tad higher is we really can maximize mixing.

Yeah, deep mixing. Looks like some 50 knot gusts. 

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18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

lol, Pretty common winds out of the NW on the backside of storm systems.....meh.

I don’t consider widespread 50+ meh.

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