Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,393
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NW_of_GYX
    Newest Member
    NW_of_GYX
    Joined
NorEastermass128

February 2019 Discussion I

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, a ridge sandwich with arctic cold in between. Makes sense that the GFS op had that strung out, but long duration deal.

Not saying it has any merit but did you seee the GGEM...  NJ model pop hammer...  

It's like each model has as separate rendition of what to do with all that instability out there with that -EPO dumping cold down...  I think we got iron out what the big picture is going to settle into for a start. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

oh duh... wonder why I didn't think to go look for European sites seeing as they're like 5 hours ahead ...  

oy. 

cool, stanks -

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

oh duh... wonder why I didn't think to go look for European sites seeing as they're like 5 hours ahead ...  

oy. 

cool, stanks -

meteocentre is out of Canada

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

what was wrong with 15/16? I had above average snowfall.  Over 45".  I'm sitting at 14.90" right now.  That's what I had in 11/12.

What was wrong with 15-16???.....Nothing was wrong except for a blow torch month of December. Followed by a Jan-Mar period that had well above normal temps. Any snow that fell that winter quickly vaporized. People walking around in shorts and sandals.  Ideal New England winter weather.

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, dendrite said:

meteocentre is out of Canada

yeah I just don't spend enough time going and ferreting this stuff out.   I thought that was euro - heh

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah I just don't spend enough time going and ferreting this stuff out.   I thought that was euro - heh

I thought you already had the early release Euro?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Well I never had big expectations for this winter.  The  pattern told the story regardless of what the models showed at D10. And never trust a D10 model run. Doing so is going to set you up for disappointment.

I don't think it was obvious beforehand.

If you are that good, write it out next time.

I only know of one individual (met or hobbyist) who articulated his work and was reasonably accurate...lots of Monday QB, hindsight warriors who knew it all along.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

What was wrong with 15-16???.....Nothing was wrong except for a blow torch month of December. Followed by a Jan-Mar period that had well above normal temps. Any snow that fell that winter quickly vaporized. People walking around in shorts and sandals.  Ideal New England winter weather.

It sucked up this way...better south of the pike.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

What was wrong with 15-16???.....Nothing was wrong except for a blow torch month of December. Followed by a Jan-Mar period that had well above normal temps. Any snow that fell that winter quickly vaporized. People walking around in shorts and sandals.  Ideal New England winter weather.

15-16 was tough if you missed out on the Mid-Atlantic HECS in January. It was a terrible winter in upstate NY as well. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Man, guidance is really struggling with that monster EPO block next week....check out this ridge on the Euro at 156h.

 

 

Feb21_12zEuro156.png

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think it was obvious beforehand.

If you are that good, write it out next time.

I only know of one poster who articulated his work and was reasonably accurate...lots of Monday QB, hindsight warriors who knew it all along.

Ray, think of the pattern leading into the fall/winter. Go back and take a look at the pattern that developed in late November. As I said wrote back then, I did not like the parade of storms that was hitting the west. I even commented in the El Nino sub forum that many forecasters had down played the El Nino and the overall state of the Pacific.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think it was obvious beforehand.

If you are that good, write it out next time.

I only know of one individual (met or hobbyist) who articulated his work and was reasonably accurate...lots of Monday QB, hindsight warriors who knew it all along.

Just don’t engage 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just don’t engage 

Did Toolland JR high have a snow day???

And great call by you last week saying the snow season was over with.  You're wrong so often you do not even know what right is.

 

 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 Although this winter has been mediocre at best I have sure spent a lot of caloric energy moving snow from the systems we have had.

 I certainly don't recall of the paltry 80s having so many events that ended with glaze.  If it wasn't a vacation week I'm sure today would have been another two hour school delay. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah guidance all over with that pig EPO ridge. Good luck getting consensus on storm threats. All you can say is that we remain favorable for a few events over the next 2 weeks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro tries to plunk a chunk of vortex down but stalls it in the upper OV... Need that to get south but ...that's about in the right spatial-temporal window there... 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah guidance all over with that pig EPO ridge. Good luck getting consensus on storm threats. All you can say is that we remain favorable for a few events over the next 2 weeks.

Ridge is way east of where it has been....so there's definitely more longwave support for something interesting. No guarantees of course. All we can say is a coastal has a better shot in this pattern than it did the rest of this month.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

What was wrong with 15-16???.....Nothing was wrong except for a blow torch month of December. Followed by a Jan-Mar period that had well above normal temps. Any snow that fell that winter quickly vaporized. People walking around in shorts and sandals.  Ideal New England winter weather.

That's the best kind of winter,  Above average snows and temps with no pack.

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Ray, think of the pattern leading into the fall/winter. Go back and take a look at the pattern that developed in late November. As I said wrote back then, I did not like the parade of storms that was hitting the west. I even commented in the El Nino sub forum that many forecasters had down played the El Nino and the overall state of the Pacific.

Cool. You should do a short outlook next year...maybe we can all learn something.

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That icy look continues for my hood on Sunday...yuck.   That is a big storm...could be full of surprises

Bank on it, We know how CAD is modeled at this lead.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cool. You should do a short outlook next year...maybe we can all learn something.

You are being overly sensitive. Nothing I wrote was directed at you. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m starting to buy into this upcoming period 

And it’ll probably last longer than everyone thinks.  I know everyone is buying into the indice slash weeklies collapse after 3/7-3/10 but as we often see this will probably hang in for another 1-2 weeks longer 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's a quick illustration of how the longwave positions are more favorable for EC cyclogensis....you can see the western longwave ridge (marked in red) is actually just onshore rather than well offshore and the long wave trough (marked in bright green) is centered over the Lakes/OH Valley/Southeast.....12z EPS for March 1-2.

 

 

Feb21_12zEPS204.png

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For comparison, here's what the pattern looked like mid-month.....Feb 8th run of the EPS valid Feb 16-17...more classic gradient La Nina pattern. We can do ok in these, but they are generally hostile to coastals.

 

 

Feb8_EPS216h.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×