Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,394
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NW_of_GYX
    Newest Member
    NW_of_GYX
    Joined
NorEastermass128

February 2019 Discussion I

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

yeah compared to what it was forecast. I would take a bunch of these type of events all winter, especially if the pack sticks around. I love plowable events with ZR on top. 

Yes 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

yeah compared to what it was forecast. I would take a bunch of these type of events all winter, especially if the pack sticks around. I love plowable events with ZR on top. 

98% of us here love these snow to ice nickels and dimes. Big winters and big storms are rare for a reason. These are great. Locks in pack and creates appeal and havoc on roads 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sunday trends colder . Take the 40’s/50’s down 

Family in SNJ may see mid-upper 60s; we won't see 40 and may be plowing siggy snow.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 I am sitting at a conservatively measured 34" since I often don't record anything less than 1". As Tip  said earlier it wouldn't take that much to get to normal.  A 12"+  and a few advisory events could do it which is not unreasonable considering there is a solid month of winter weather left.

 I guess where we stand right now based on how much snow I've had and how much snow cover and winter activity I've been able to engage in I can't really give this season less than a C.   Not that that has anything to be really excited about.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna have to watch for some ice in the ORH hills on Sunday....both Euro and NAM have it. It's marginal but several hours with decent QPF could make things nasty for a time.

Thats quite icy on the 12z Nam down your way, Looks to stay mainly all snow up here.

image.thumb.png.f8df6fd3596b594a57fa70ba4642ed2d.png

image.thumb.png.a39c9a31678dfbdda30787b7581c235c.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

98% of us here love these snow to ice nickels and dimes. Big winters and big storms are rare for a reason. These are great. Locks in pack and creates appeal and havoc on roads 

I know you are just trolling and stirring up shit, but your act gets real tired.  You can keep the havoc on the roads to your hilltop and let the other 98% of us drive safely!

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Would be a nice ending to shitty Winter.

48hr total QPF at what looks to be an all snow event as shown.

qpf_acc.us_ne.thumb.png.e3b8a31ca1ce2e06b69b89bc152571e4.png

 

That would get the eastern New England folks’ undies in a bunch. 

Err. Or maybe us western folks.

Good thing it ain’t happening.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

This winter has that girl next door feel to it.  Not a smoke show that everyone drools over but more of a subtle vibe that keeps you intrigued. 

It's been more like living next to a level III with your two kids. 

  • Haha 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

98% of us here love these snow to ice nickels and dimes. Big winters and big storms are rare for a reason. These are great. Locks in pack and creates appeal and havoc on roads 

Blah. Give me te biggies. Anyway, Sunday looks cold even where it rains. Sell warmth. Congrats Whineminster on ice.

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Thats quite icy on the 12z Nam down your way, Looks to stay mainly all snow up here.

image.thumb.png.f8df6fd3596b594a57fa70ba4642ed2d.png

image.thumb.png.a39c9a31678dfbdda30787b7581c235c.png

Warning criteria - wouldn't that be unexpectedly nice?  Not confident it works out that way, more likely advisory snow to mix'n'mess, but still a pack builder.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, tamarack said:

Warning criteria - wouldn't that be unexpectedly nice?  Not confident it works out that way, more likely advisory snow to mix'n'mess, but still a pack builder.

Yes, I like these surprises, The euro was actually very bullish on this, Here is the 24 hr clown map

image.thumb.png.2264f7db4164e7f50a90823ea450acbf.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Trends and friends . Ice here we go

Retreating high/in-situ CAD hybrid so I'm not counting on huge ice....it's gonna be icy in the typical spots like east slope of Monads/ORH hills at some elevation...maybe Berks too. But many areas will latently warm to 33F....there could be a good shot of sleet though on the front end and then a few hours of ice.

 

I'd want to see more of a mesolow protruding northeastward off the E coast of MA to lock in bigger ice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Fake trends make fake friends.

Nam is an ice storm for Mass NE NW CT. Probably sell but it has 1 to 2 snow in NE Mass too

zr_acc.us_ne.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes, I like these surprises, The euro was actually very bullish on this, Here is the 24 hr clown map

image.thumb.png.2264f7db4164e7f50a90823ea450acbf.png

Another 8:1 baking soda snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 I am sitting at a conservatively measured 34" since I often don't record anything less than 1". As Tip  said earlier it wouldn't take that much to get to normal.  A 12"+  and a few advisory events could do it which is not unreasonable considering there is a solid month of winter weather left.

 I guess where we stand right now based on how much snow I've had and how much snow cover and winter activity I've been able to engage in I can't really give this season less than a C.   Not that that has anything to be really excited about.

The problem I have with this grading practice is that it is too guided by subjectivity.  

If someone "digs" the winter ...for whatever reason they do, they give it good grade.  If not...the opposite of course, and in either case, there's no "standardization" - it's whether they got what they wanted.  Or, at best ... some corruption of fairness happens whether they are even consciously aware they are modulating their impression or not. 

So what of it ... I mean, duh. We all know this...  But, it would be interesting if there was a standard metric that could be derived for determining the silliness of whether a winter 'passes' or not.  And then... it would make it that much more fun ( muah hahahaha) to rub people's noses in their own emotional, nonsensical baggage they lay off on others in here.  "This winter failed ... blah blah..."  Oh no it didn't, thus forcing the bitcher to face their emotional demons and suffer like they should for allowing this crap to affect them in the first place. I love that... 

Sort of kidding there... but, suppose we take an average at my location, gladly throwing myself under the bus:   52 at Lowell, and 54 at Barre Falls Dam ... so, triangulating for me in Ayer ... I can assume 53 inches as a rough guesstimate of my seasonal snow fall average.  

Fright now ...  ha, "fright" now...  I like that typo - let's go with that!  Fright now, as of this last evening's little over-production, I'm right around 27" in my yard on the season.  I don't speak for the region or anyone else, just what I've noted.  So, 27" is roughly half? 

Well, if 100% of a season is 53" (say) and I'm at 27 ...that's 50% of normal.  50% on any test is an F ... this winter Fails to achieve normalized snow variance.  So that is at least approaching a methodic, objective way to assess a pass fail conjecture about the year to date.   

I don't think it is over... re-echoing those sentiments, of course! At least in my all-indicative holier than though yard... we are only a single 5" event from this getting into the 60th percentile, and suddenly ... the year passes with a D- grade.  

I mean ... if people want to create a separate, none mathematical system, essentially tantamount to one based on flopping five year tantrum in a grocery store line because Mother Nature said no to the pretty wrapping candy-bars set strategically at said five year old's line of sight ... there's unfortunately no one size fits all agreeable metric for that.  

By the way... while on the subject of seasonal totals vs what the average neurotic, vaguely functional winter enthusiast wants... I found this site I'd never heard of called "Current Results" ?  I have no idea of its veracity ... but it list Amherst with 36.9" ?   Doesn't that seem low?  I can't find any explanation on that site but I thought that number was peculiar.  Buffemville too for that matter.  41 seems shirked 

Central Massachusetts

Average total snowfall for a year
Days Place Inches Centi­metres
16.6 Amherst 36.9 93.7
23.0 Barre Falls Reservoir Dam 54.7 138.9
14.5 Buffumville Lake 40.9 103.9
23.1 East Brimfield Lake 59.0 149.9
20.3 Lowell 51.9 131.8
20.3 Tully Lake 49.5 125.7
31.7 Worcester 64.1 162.8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, dendrite said:

Another 8:1 baking soda snow

Why change now.........lol, Seasonal norm this winter, Bring it on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Retreating high/in-situ CAD hybrid so I'm not counting on huge ice....it's gonna be icy in the typical spots like east slope of Monads/ORH hills at some elevation...maybe Berks too. But many areas will latently warm to 33F....there could be a good shot of sleet though on the front end and then a few hours of ice.

 

I'd want to see more of a mesolow protruding northeastward off the E coast of MA to lock in bigger ice.

I noticed yesterday NAM kept trending colder and so far it has today . Lots of 40’s and 50’s forecasts out there for Sunday when many interior folks could be icing in some degree 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I noticed yesterday NAM kept trending colder and so far it has today . Lots of 40’s and 50’s forecasts out there for Sunday when many interior folks could be icing in some degree 

Def take 'em down for Sunday....I haven't really looked at official forecasts...but nothing has supported 50s for Sunday since the beginning of this threat, at least over the interior....the coast and SE areas are a different story....maybe a brief post-FROPA spike into the 40s Sunday evening for interior.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nothing was supporting that in the first place - you've just been conned into placating a straw-argument ... 

Not sure why he does this - but sounds off like some absurdity is ubiquitous ... like to get vitriol about what he (really) fears happening maybe.. . I dunno.  Kinda fascinating actually - 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nothing was supporting that in the first place - you've just been conned into placating a straw-argument ... 

Not sure why he does this - but sounds off like some absurdity is ubiquitous ... like to get vitriol about what he (really) fears happening maybe.. . I dunno.  Kinda fascinating actually - 

His NWS forecast is 48F on Sunday

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

His NWS forecast is 48F on Sunday

50s?   nah... 

That's part of the manipulation tactic - 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The problem I have with this grading practice is that it is too guided by subjectivity.  

If someone "digs" the winter ...for whatever reason they do, they give it good grade.  If not...the opposite of course, and in either case, there's no "standardization" - it's whether they got what they wanted.  Or, at best ... some corruption of fairness happens whether they are even consciously aware they are modulating their impression or not. 

So what of it ... I mean, duh. We all know this...  But, it would be interesting if there was a standard metric that could be derived for determining the silliness of whether a winter 'passes' or not.  And then... it would make it that much more fun ( muah hahahaha) to rub people's noses in their own emotional, nonsensical baggage they lay off on others in here.  "This winter failed ... blah blah..."  Oh no it didn't, thus forcing the bitcher to face their emotional demons and suffer like they should for allowing this crap to affect them in the first place. I love that... 

Sort of kidding there... but, suppose we take an average at my location, gladly throwing myself under the bus:   52 at Lowell, and 54 at Barre Falls Dam ... so, triangulating for me in Ayer ... I can assume 53 inches as a rough guesstimate of my seasonal snow fall average.  

Fright now ...  ha, "fright" now...  I like that typo - let's go with that!  Fright now, as of this last evening's little over-production, I'm right around 27" in my yard on the season.  I don't speak for the region or anyone else, just what I've noted.  So, 27" is roughly half? 

Well, if 100% of a season is 53" (say) and I'm at 27 ...that's 50% of normal.  50% on any test is an F ... this winter Fails to achieve normalized snow variance.  So that is at least approaching a methodic, objective way to assess a pass fail conjecture about the year to date.   

I don't think it is over... re-echoing those sentiments, of course! At least in my all-indicative holier than though yard... we are only a single 5" event from this getting into the 60th percentile, and suddenly ... the year passes with a D- grade.  

I mean ... if people want to create a separate, none mathematical system, essentially tantamount to one based on flopping five year tantrum in a grocery store line because Mother Nature said no to the pretty wrapping candy-bars set strategically at said five year old's line of sight ... there's unfortunately no one size fits all agreeable metric for that.  

By the way... while on the subject of seasonal totals vs what the average neurotic, vaguely functional winter enthusiast wants... I found this site I'd never heard of called "Current Results" ?  I have no idea of its veracity ... but it list Amherst with 36.9" ?   Doesn't that seem low?  I can't find any explanation on that site but I thought that number was peculiar.  Buffemville too for that matter.  41 seems shirked 

Central Massachusetts

Average total snowfall for a year
Days Place Inches Centi­metres
16.6 Amherst 36.9 93.7
23.0 Barre Falls Reservoir Dam 54.7 138.9
14.5 Buffumville Lake 40.9 103.9
23.1 East Brimfield Lake 59.0 149.9
20.3 Lowell 51.9 131.8
20.3 Tully Lake 49.5 125.7
31.7 Worcester 64.1 162.8

That Lowell number is a good 10" too low.

ORH is about 4" low...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That Lowell number is a good 10" too low.

ORH is about 4" low...

 I average a bit under 60 here there is no way Amherst is only 39. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×