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NorEastermass128

February 2019 Discussion I

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49 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

not for nothing fellas but it has been down right wintry for a week or so!

I was just thinking about this en route to work this morning... 

I've had contiguous snow pack ...albeit < 5" but a snow pack nonetheless, for over 10 days now.. .And, I'm up to 27" on the season.  I'm basically one solid performing coastal CCB from this getting to within a stone's throw of average, and looking at the pattern ahead (tele's and subtleties with the operational runs and so forth) I'm not willing to dispense with the notion of getting that done.  

We'll see.. but (hint hint) March's first week is about a good a shot as any for seasonal recuperation -

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1 hour ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Fantasy east of the rivah nuke on the 06z GFS op. If there was ever a favorable time for a coastal it will be in that 7-10 day period at the start of Morch 

Lol, just looked at the run. You ain't kidding. A stalling 960s nuke replete with loop-de-loop. Jeebus.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Watch the trends friend . Take your 50’s down at the very least 

The trend is not your friend. Enjoy the cold rain.

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Icy mix to rain . We take as trends evolve 

Trend your wishcast to liquid.

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5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's been the most brutal winter I can remember. And man what a head fake November turned out to be. 

I can't wait till Spring arrives and this wretched winter gets bleached out of existence.

I wish the -EPO was just gone and we could torch March completely 2012 style.

I think you hit the nail on the head. We have had winters with less snow, but other than 2001 2002 winter they were not predicted to be snowy, AND Crap models like the weeklies did not continually show an epic look weeks 3 and 4 the entire winter. That combination, combined with a weak Nino, kept our minds thinking a 2015 repeat was coming till a couple weeks ago. Basically a giant tease. To make matters worse we had to endure cold temps. That is why I feel this is the worst winter of my life.

Regarding our upcoming cold snap, if the early 90s and 80s are a blueprint, we probably get a good pure snowstorm before we torch.

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Next week needs some help. That is a tricky pattern with the EPS keeping flow zonal through early next week. You are going to need that s/w trough to retro west of Seattle (which the 6z EPS tried to do). This allows for some weak ridging as a piece of energy breaks off the PV in Canada and tries to ignite cyclogenesis off the East Coast. This does not look like an easy task for a big low, but something lgt-mdt is possible. 

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This season can not end soon enough,  These petty storms are nothing more then a pain in the ass.  Nothing enjoyable about them whatsoever.

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10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This season can not end soon enough,  These petty storms are nothing more then a pain in the ass.  Nothing enjoyable about them whatsoever.

Monday’s was good because it was just snow for most.  These mixed bag ones suck, although this morning’s was less sucky than I thought.

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19 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This season can not end soon enough,  These petty storms are nothing more then a pain in the ass.  Nothing enjoyable about them whatsoever.

Snow on snow!!

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And THIS is what I mean about the winter being a tease. The Tels look terrible.

PNA neutral for a few days then strongly negative

AO positive throughout

NAO neutral now going strongly positive

Other than the MJO and EPO, what is going to help us with the above?

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

And THIS is what I mean about the winter being a tease. The Tels look terrible.

PNA neutral for a few days then strongly negative

AO positive throughout

NAO neutral now going strongly positive

Other than the MJO and EPO, what is going to help us with the above?

Looking at these tellies ?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

I was told by many meteorologists not to take these charts seriously.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nice warm seclusion 

Would be a nice ending to shitty Winter.

48hr total QPF at what looks to be an all snow event as shown.

qpf_acc.us_ne.thumb.png.e3b8a31ca1ce2e06b69b89bc152571e4.png

 

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6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

And THIS is what I mean about the winter being a tease. The Tels look terrible.

PNA neutral for a few days then strongly negative

AO positive throughout

NAO neutral now going strongly positive

Other than the MJO and EPO, what is going to help us with the above?

As we’ve seen in past years if the MJO is favorable and the positioning of the ridge is good out west the AO/NAO don’t really matter other than any storm you get will be fast moving 

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To bad its not inside 96 hrs, This thread would be hopping with the folks that came off the ledge.

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Gonna have to watch for some ice in the ORH hills on Sunday....both Euro and NAM have it. It's marginal but several hours with decent QPF could make things nasty for a time.

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Holy crap my first look at modeling for CNNE for next week. Damn that changed quickly.  

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

To bad its not inside 96 hrs, This thread would be hopping with the folks that came off the ledge.

Dude Sunday just exploded up there out of  nowhere thats foot plus with Mts near 2

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dude Sunday just exploded up there out of  nowhere thats foot plus with Mts near 2

I know it, Mentinoed it a page or so back, It had looked to start as frozen the last several runs then flip but its trended colder and it looks like we get a secondary that pops just in time to lock in the colder air hence a plowable event in the cards now.

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43 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Great?

yeah compared to what it was forecast. I would take a bunch of these type of events all winter, especially if the pack sticks around. I love plowable events with ZR on top. 

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