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NorEastermass128

February 2019 Discussion I

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1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Go back to the Mid-Atlantic forum. Don't you have to go track those 6"-8" that LWX had out yesterday for DC instead of coming in here to comment on a D8 fantasy storm that of course is going to change run-to-run being that far out?

Easier to say STFU Yoda lol

where in the hell has EEK been?

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Begrudgingly ... I admit also that the MJO in the more dependable channels is modestly/moderately strengthened in the 8-1-2 western hemmie... Which does fall pretty squarely in timing upon this spike in the PNA.  Combining the -EPO ... these are not bad converging cold and stormy indicators.   

For once this season, the MJO may be in more of a constructive interference passage through space and time ...   

The AO is out of phase though... but, with the EPO being negative, we may not be as reliant (or need be...) on the former.  

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12 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol at you thinking I was serious about a day 8 storm though. Thanks for straightening me out :wub:

I already locked it in.

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58 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Begrudgingly ... I admit also that the MJO in the more dependable channels is modestly/moderately strengthened in the 8-1-2 western hemmie... Which does fall pretty squarely in timing upon this spike in the PNA.  Combining the -EPO ... these are not bad converging cold and stormy indicators.   

For once this season, the MJO may be in more of a constructive interference passage through space and time ...   

The AO is out of phase though... but, with the EPO being negative, we may not be as reliant (or need be...) on the former.  

With the PNA forecasted to plummet per GEFS around March 1st, wouldn't the cold air dump from the -epo just fall to the west again, repeating the garbage pattern we are in?

For reference.

1509125238_pna.sprd2(7).thumb.gif.0d0a1e4e72dd52f2cb82b1bd1317e828.gif

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28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

With the PNA forecasted to plummet per GEFS around March 1st, wouldn't the cold air dump from the -epo just fall to the west again, repeating the garbage pattern we are in?

For reference.

 

It could ... 

The CDC PNA is indicating a different tendency out there toward week 2, though, and... the fact that those members are 'mop ended' can also be an indication for lowering confidence in that time range ... Have to see where the cluster occurs...  

For the record, I wouldn't think any "favorable" regime is going to last a long time ... like all of March, but by the time we get into next month, usually the winter paradigms are collapsing anyway.   Plus there's proverbial "bowling" season too...  These can skew what's going on -

 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Next week’s fantasy storm was fun for a few hours yesterday.

Fantasy FROPA.

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Still a better look than what we've had, coming up. Might be good for that bomb to disappear for a few runs instead of everyone commenting on every single run.

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43 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Next week’s fantasy storm was fun for a few hours yesterday.

At least we have day 10, we know how well they have worked out so far this winter....

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There's big ridging much further east than what we've seen. It is definitely more conductive for a coastal storm than the pattern we've been in. 

That doesn't mean you go locking it in but there is a reason to actually entertain the possibility. 

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1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

At least we have day 10, we know how well they have worked out so far this winter....

The Euro is just playing with us by putting these la la land threats out there for a run or two, only to make them disappear a day later.        :lmao:

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's big ridging much further east than what we've seen. It is definitely more conductive for a coastal storm than the pattern we've been in. 

That doesn't mean you go locking it in but there is a reason to actually entertain the possibility. 

The question is does that better look evaporate as the next 6-8 days unfold .

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44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yes still looks pretty good in a long range. It’s our chance to at least get something sizable.

Until Lucy pulls the rug one more time?

granted it could stay for another week and then we actually have that period but let’s not act like it’s def coming I mean it’ll prolly be muted into meh a little better 

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38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 It’s a weak signal. But there.

 

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

She gone 

 

:huh:

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

 

:huh:

Lol. Yeah the signal is still there. But it's suppressed compared to yesterday. But for a day 7 threat....we know the drill. 

Still a very stormy EPS run though...signals for Mar 1-2 and another good one Mar 4-5. The early March ones likely have more longwave support than the 2/27 signal for reasons you mentioned earlier...the ridge really pops after 2/27 or 2/28. 

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

 

:huh:

I mean if your into 1008 down near SC headed to NF I guess thats a signal for some. Epic 970 ish  thru Michigan transfers to a mega ocean storm which acts like a Scooter stain, until that moves we will have to wait until day 9 10 like Will said. But meh today on the EPS for any strong coastal. 

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