Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,393
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NW_of_GYX
    Newest Member
    NW_of_GYX
    Joined
NorEastermass128

February 2019 Discussion I

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol you weren't around at the time so I will let this pass.

Great some cryptic sh*t that a handful of people understand.

Hopefully we get something decent 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Great some cryptic sh*t that a handful of people understand.

Hopefully we get something decent 

Sam was a kid growing up in Keene, NH who was a whiz at meteorology from the get go. He was a big snow lover but probably a bigger severe lover. He got his degree and the went to Oklahoma for post grad. I think his name here is OKPowdah. He used to draw snow maps that always seemed to have a “phallic” look to the contours. If you look at that clown map, you can see the darker blue shading also has that look. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Fun progs to look at for a fantasy storm.  Look at that 850 jet speed and circulation.

Only 34 more runs to go!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not a peep about the 18z Euro?

It was partly sunny and 70 with a Michigan mauler

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z euro goes out to 90 hours and the ensembles go to 144. So we can't even entertain the D8 storm on that run. 

The next two storms look like typical garbage. 1-2" tomorrow night for SNE before sleet and ice interior. Next one looks warmer but still has the CAD at sfc. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro goes out to 90 hours and the ensembles go to 144. So we can't even entertain the D8 storm on that run. 

The next two storms look like typical garbage. 1-2" tomorrow night for SNE before sleet and ice interior. Next one looks warmer but still has the CAD at sfc. 

Yeah...I was looking more for info on the two systems incoming. I thought 18z was shorter range

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro goes out to 90 hours and the ensembles go to 144. So we can't even entertain the D8 storm on that run. 

The next two storms look like typical garbage. 1-2" tomorrow night for SNE before sleet and ice interior. Next one looks warmer but still has the CAD at sfc. 

Nice interior ice event maybe for Sunday? Please? Lots of insolation this time of year though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Sam was a kid growing up in Keene, NH who was a whiz at meteorology from the get go. He was a big snow lover but probably a bigger severe lover. He got his degree and the went to Oklahoma for post grad. I think his name here is OKPowdah. He used to draw snow maps that always seemed to have a “phallic” look to the contours. If you look at that clown map, you can see the darker blue shading also has that look. 

 kind of weird I don't remember the dude . What was his handle ? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Driving to Attitash Sunday and I do not want to be driving in ice. Let it stay snow or just a little plain rain. Good news is skiing looks like it'll be good after that...cold and maybe some fresh snow on Wednesday. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Sam was a kid growing up in Keene, NH who was a whiz at meteorology from the get go. He was a big snow lover but probably a bigger severe lover. He got his degree and the went to Oklahoma for post grad. I think his name here is OKPowdah. He used to draw snow maps that always seemed to have a “phallic” look to the contours. If you look at that clown map, you can see the darker blue shading also has that look. 

 

20190219_231025.png

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Cold Miser said:

Great some cryptic sh*t that a handful of people understand.

Hopefully we get something decent 

Lol at you thinking I was serious about a day 8 storm though. Thanks for straightening me out :wub:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

What does it tell you that there were a combined 13 posts between the discussion and event threads from the 00z models?

It tells me tonight's event is meh for about 80% of the board, and most with a brain aren't invested in day 8 solution.

Post counts are definitely factored into forecasts and even verification, though, so I totally get your concern.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, tunafish said:

...and most with a brain aren't invested in day 8 solution.

 

11 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Fun while it lasted

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 

:facepalm:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, yoda said:

Euro says what storm lol as its out to sea

It's still there but weak and offshore

Eps is very active and cold

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

D8 is def still there on ensembles. Check back in a couple days and hope it is still there and then we may have something. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, yoda said:

Euro says what storm lol as its out to sea

Go back to the Mid-Atlantic forum. Don't you have to go track those 6"-8" that LWX had out yesterday for DC instead of coming in here to comment on a D8 fantasy storm that of course is going to change run-to-run being that far out?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Go back to the Mid-Atlantic forum. Don't you have to go track those 6"-8" that LWX had out yesterday for DC instead of coming in here to comment on a D8 fantasy storm that of course is going to change run-to-run being that far out?

He wasn't trolling. Probably a testament to how this will change and not to fall in love with the exotic solutions.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tels

PNA spikes but looks to go deeply negative March 1st. That would be the killer IMO

AO strongly positive looks to go neutral days 11 through 15, but one camp keeps it strongly positive 

NAO meanders around neutral to slightly positive 

MJO by far the best look of the bunch. 8 through 3.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still thinking the more super synoptic scale rooted favorability for event(s) is more situated into the first week of March.  

Obviously there are other Meteorological events that need to transpire (per model scheduling ...) prior to the 27th... but, those appear impact manageable/forgettable. 

For reasons elaborated upon, yesterday, the 27th event, was a bit incongruous against the background canvas to begin with.  Combining those synoptic philosophies with my own personal observation over how the Euro has an oh-so subtle, at other times more important tendency to spuriously deepen troughs in the OV going beyond the mid ranges.  The overnight correction by the Euro (for me) is as much a factor of that, as it is probably a D8 system mambo in the models.  Hard to separate physics from chaos at this range .. all the above..  That said, there is likely to be some sort of presence in the flow mid/late next week, as there is a lot of ensemble support in both camps for S/W spacing between 100W and 70W in general...   

I'm not as opposed to a narrower flat-wave amplitude in that kind of overall flow construct. It's high speed, and fairly compressed, so open wave is favored.  Such as a NJ Model type ..etc, and in fact, GGEM sort of tries to get that done.  The Euro oper. appears now to be the weaker ensemble member ... It seems it "could" afford some amplitude back - maybe went too far... - and it wouldn't be too egregious to do so with that flow.  I just think a more middling type intensity wave is better supported, all told.   Again, as I stipulated, ... if the flow relaxes some in the S and the heights pop a little more robustly amplified in the west on the heels of the 27th S/W ... this could mature into something more...   I mean, all this is based on the models features being relatively stable - standing caveat emptor.  

After that, the -EPO cold dump into Canada seems to also have legs and it'll be interesting to see what starts to emerge in the runs as we get through the next 7 days...  I wonder if there's something big or a series of events between the 27th through circa 10th of March

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×