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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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15 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Nam has snow pushing farther north and east and a bit earlier now, around 19z tomorrow for here. I'm not sure how far north that initial push could make it, but it is going to make for a horrendous evening commute if it is correct...

Gets 3 to 4 inches of snow and sleet to Fairfield county. With the north trend this year would not be surprised to see another 10 mile northeast jump in next 24 hours.

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8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Gets 3 to 4 inches of snow and sleet to Fairfield county. With the north trend this year would not be surprised to see another 10 mile northeast jump in next 24 hours.

It was clear this would occur 2-3 days ago.  I said watch this become an ABE-NYC snow max and it’s headed that way.  I think you’ll see a continued push east and north as well.  It’s a combination of 3 things.  Models again underestimated the SER so the shortwave is tracking more north across PA.  They dampened the shortwave too early in flow that while it was “ridgy and confluent” to quote Crankywxguy wasn’t true meat grinder territory.  Finally the models usually don’t generate enough WAA precip near the north edge on these events beyond 48-60.  There will be nasty banding somewhere near the edge of the snow shield as well which at this range is hard to predict but it could make it into parts of WRN CT 

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16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It was clear this would occur 2-3 days ago.  I said watch this become an ABE-NYC snow max and it’s headed that way.  I think you’ll see a continued push east and north as well.  It’s a combination of 3 things.  Models again underestimated the SER so the shortwave is tracking more north across PA.  They dampened the shortwave too early in flow that while it was “ridgy and confluent” to quote Crankywxguy wasn’t true meat grinder territory.  Finally the models usually don’t generate enough WAA precip near the north edge on these events beyond 48-60.  There will be nasty banding somewhere near the edge of the snow shield as well which at this range is hard to predict but it could make it into parts of WRN CT 

I have one office on park ave., another in Stamford and I live in Easton. The gradient between all three locations may be quite large. I may have to go to the City to get the full effect!

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Fantasy nuke at day 8 on the Euro.

We take...Can this please be one of these systems that the EURO sees way out in time and keep it the whole way through? The days of the old EURO. I guess what I am saying, is this a thread the needle deal 8 days out? Because we know how this will end up if it is.

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