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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Overnite ....Did EPS mute the EPO ridging at hr 144 or slide the mean position of the western ridge west a bit ?

No. There are three things to watch. The EPS retros the s/w trough i mentioned yesterday to a position that tries to pop ridging out west, after hr 96. We also have some blocking from a piece of -NAO that extends WSW from Greenland into the davis straits. At the same time a piece of energy breaks up and tries to induce cyclogenesis off the East Coast next week. White it could go to crap, that’s an interesting  look. Certainly catches my eye. Mid week probably lgt-mdt event at best. 

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not sure you would predict a gradient issue heading into an el Nino....that is the issue...it was basically a la nina.

Mm... deeper than all that.. 

I don't personally believe that all which has travailed us can be watered down to merely mishandling the el Nino - 

Firstly,  ...this/that was no dig on you further above - like I said...there was a goodly bit of tongue-in-cheekism intended. 

Secondly, while I agree that the el nino appears to have failed, I believe the circulation base-line isn't either la nina.  As I intimated pretty clearly in that, there is a systemic crisis - for lack of better word - where every autumn when "normal" seasonal cooling heights begin to push south during ensuing winters, since roughly 2000 ..they are running into more resistance elevated geopotential medium - perhaps rooted in GW as an aside, but perhaps not.  Either way, there results in the gradient being anomalously sloped from roughly the 35th parallel to the 55th. The "likeness" that creates to to La Nina, is purely coincidental.  

It has to be... because SSTs/thermocline is/are crucial in determining the oceanic-atmospheric "coupled" state, and since the cooler SST part of that is missing... it cannot logically be La Nina.  SO, the only alternative conclusion is that something else is causing these compression preponderances and its concomitant accelerated overall wind speeds.   I think it's just normal seasonality from the N ...butting into pervasive heat saturation.  NCEP also recently published a statement in their ENSO write up ... that it does not appear the Pacific anomaly has ever yet coupled to the circulation system of the atmosphere so... It's just been a non-factor, which leads no where else.

Did you know that some airline reported 730 mph ground relative velocities over the open Atlantic ocean last week.  That's essentially sonic speeds! I mean, it's ground relative velocity, mind you - they weren't actually flying a commercial jetliner at sound relativistic velocities ... not a 747 anyway.  Now I don't know if that's ever happened before... if so, how frequent, but I suspect that sort of effect is increasingly evidenced where flights can either benefit vs delay from the maelstrom.  Recently ... a buddy of mine and his family set out on what turned into a major crusade, connection flight deal to ultimate destination, Fiji.  This was something outta of 1980s comedy about Plains Trains and Automobiles only not so haha. They ultimately ended spending three days of their allotted vacation, replete with squirming unforgiving 5 year old, ... somewhere around L.A. because a critical leg of the flight miss-calculated  (in this day and age of high tech Meteorology, device to wisdom and back) fuel due to higher consumption at slow flight rates in head winds...  The connection missed... it seemed the FAA couldn't rewire the transportation infrastructure if they wanted to...  These sort of occurrences are increasingly more common ... 

But that's a digression... My point is, a normal seasonal arctic/polar domain space resting over top even a subtly ubiquitous warm surplussed middle and upper air medium in the mid latitudes is f'n everything up.  

 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... deeper than all that.. 

I don't personally believe that all which has travailed us can be watered down to merely mishandling the el Nino - 

Firstly,  ...this/that was no dig on you further above - like I said...there was a goodly bit of tongue-in-cheekism intended. 

Secondly, while I agree that the el nino appears to have failed, I believe the circulation base-line isn't either la nina.  As I intimated pretty clearly in that, there is a systemic crisis - for lack of better word - where every autumn when "normal" seasonal cooling heights begin to push south during ensuing winters, since roughly 2000 ..they are running into more resistance elevated geopotential medium - perhaps rooted in GW as an aside, but perhaps not.  Either way, there results in the gradient being anomalously sloped from roughly the 35th parallel to the 55th. The "likeness" that creates to to La Nina, is purely coincidental.  

It has to be... because SSTs/thermocline is/are crucial in determining the oceanic-atmospheric "coupled" state, and since the cooler SST part of that is missing... it cannot logically be La Nina.  SO, the only alternative conclusion is that something else is causing these compression preponderances and its concomitant accelerated overall wind speeds.   I think it's just normal seasonality from the N ...butting into pervasive heat saturation

Did you know that some airline report 740 mph ground relative velocities over the open Atlantic ocean last week.  That's essentially sonic speeds! I mean, it's ground relative velocity, mind you - they weren't actually flying a commercial jetliner at sound relativistic velocities ... not a 747 anyway.  Now I don't know if that's ever happened before... if so, how frequent, but I suspect that sort of effect is increasingly evidenced where flights can either benefit vs delay from the maelstrom.  Recently ... a buddy of mine and his family set out on what turned into a major crusade, connection flight deal to ultimate destination, Fiji.  This was something outta out of 1980s comedy about Plains Trains and Automobiles. They ultimately ended spending three days of their allotted vacation, replete with squirming unforgiving 5 year old, ... somewhere around L.A. because a critical leg of the flight miss-calculated  (in this day and age of high tech Meteorology, device to wisdom and back) fuel due to higher consumption at slow flight rates in head winds...  The connection missed... it seemed the FAA couldn't rewire the transportation infrastructure if they wanted to...  These sort of occurrences are increasingly more common ... 

But that's a digression... My point is, a normal seasonal arctic/polar domain space resting over top even a subtly ubiquitous warm surplussed middle and upper air medium in the mid latitudes is f'n everything up.  

 

I was checking space wether earlier today, the radiation load at flight level is ridiculous right now. Airline personel are now limited to 20 hours in the air a week to limit exposure. The Northeast flights are also the most 'radiated' flights in the country.

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Just now, cut said:

I was checking space wether earlier today, the radiation load at flight level is ridiculous right now. Airline personel are now limited to 20 hours in the air a week to limit exposure. The Northeast flights are also the most 'radiated' flights in the country.

 

Screen Shot 2019-02-22 at 12.37.10 PM.png

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Cut, just so clear... that is a different rooted phenomenon to what Ray and I were just discussing... You may be using that other discussion as a segue but, that's different phenomenon. 

 

No relation? It's interesting none the less as we cruise towards solar minimum.

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3 minutes ago, cut said:

No relation? It's interesting none the less as we cruise towards solar minimum.

No relationship... 

The main focus was actually the Pacific SSTs on the winter circulation...  I digressed into aeronautics ... about fluid dynamics wrt to wind resistance...  which solar radiation is effecting airline personnel is a separate matter.  

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15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We need a poll of the % of folks reading tips post in their entirety....

I do.  Sure, they're dense, but it's part of why I come to the board.  Otherwise the discussion thread's 90% posts by the southern NEs whining about the crap winter down there.  The amazing and wonderful 2015 winter has developed into a sense of entitlement.

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Okay ...so,.... mmyeah, okay.  

Some models trying to come back with a bit more amplitude and so forth for that critical Feb 27 through March 5 (or so...) time span.  But, part of the problem with the guidance ...particularly at this range, is what I was just commiserating with Ray about, ...the flow is too fast for phasing.  The GFS actually came about half way back... the GGEM has a tantalizing solution where southern stream deep west Atlantic low is just missed capture.  

I think Scott's advice is salient ... prooobably not a lot of determinism outside of 4 days in this particular set of circumstances..  

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13 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

I do.  Sure, they're dense, but it's part of why I come to the board.  Otherwise the discussion thread's 90% posts by the southern NEs whining about the crap winter down there.  The amazing and wonderful 2015 winter has developed into a sense of entitlement.

You know it's true ....  

that 'entitlement'? 

or maybe that's a little too strong of a word, but it does seem to lead a failure to recede back into one's climatology on some level or another.  Prior to the demise of Eastern WX ... the mid-Atlantic folk were insufferable - and I'm not sure whether you, or anyone else reading this ... , were part of the 2002-2009 era, but particularly in the earlier years, they did not cordon off "sub-forums" by region. It was a very different culture.   Not judging...just sayn'. 

Anyway, 1996 utterly RUINED them folks.  I don't know what was worse, the storm, or... the unmitigated sense of feeling ripped off every year after the fact ...at least through 2006 before they came back to Earth and seemed like their tone and tenors were not as offended by mere normal PHL climate.  1996, in case folks are wondering, is the year of the great Megalopolis Blizzard... 

They've had other extra-ordinary winters in the MA since.  2010 leaps to mind... but, we haven't been interacting with those cats down that way nearly as intimately since American came on line, and is heavily sub-forum contained.  So who knows what their expectations are like now...  Course, in 15 years of weather social media shenanigans ... it's unlikely the same users are there anyway. 

Point is, I know what you mean and I agree.  It seems years like 1996, 2010... 2015 ... 2008 ..whatever, we tend to spin up hopes pretty high and have to crash pretty hard when dr reality serves a dose of sanity. 

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