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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That Lowell number is a good 10" too low.

ORH is about 4" low...

A lot of coops are a dumpster fire for reliable snowfall unfortunately

 

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 I average a bit under 60 here there is no way Amherst is only 39. 

See above response to Ray.

 

 

The most reliable ones in SNE IMHO over the years have been Reading MA, North Foster RI, Ashburnham MA (though I've noticed a little slippage recently), Walpole MA,, East Wareham MA, Norfolk CT (though I noticed a step-change in snowfall to much lower in the early 2000s)....the old now-defunct Ashfield, MA coop was a great one. But I think their last season was 2009-2010.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

A lot of coops are a dumpster fire for reliable snowfall unfortunately

 

See above response to Ray.

 

 

The most reliable ones in SNE IMHO over the years have been Reading MA, North Foster RI, Ashburnham MA (though I've noticed a little slippage recently), Walpole MA,, East Wareham MA, Norfolk CT (though I noticed a step-change in snowfall to much lower in the early 2000s)....the old now-defunct Ashfield, MA coop was a great one. But I think their last season was 2009-2010.

Reading has always been my trusted go-to.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The problem I have with this grading practice is that it is too guided by subjectivity.  

If someone "digs" the winter ...for whatever reason they do, they give it good grade.  If not...the opposite of course, and in either case, there's no "standardization" - it's whether they got what they wanted.  Or, at best ... some corruption of fairness happens whether they are even consciously aware they are modulating their impression or not. 

So what of it ... I mean, duh. We all know this...  But, it would be interesting if there was a standard metric that could be derived for determining the silliness of whether a winter 'passes' or not.  And then... it would make it that much more fun ( muah hahahaha) to rub people's noses in their own emotional, nonsensical baggage they lay off on others in here.  "This winter failed ... blah blah..."  Oh no it didn't, thus forcing the bitcher to face their emotional demons and suffer like they should for allowing this crap to affect them in the first place. I love that... 

Sort of kidding there... but, suppose we take an average at my location, gladly throwing myself under the bus:   52 at Lowell, and 54 at Barre Falls Dam ... so, triangulating for me in Ayer ... I can assume 53 inches as a rough guesstimate of my seasonal snow fall average.  

Fright now ...  ha, "fright" now...  I like that typo - let's go with that!  Fright now, as of this last evening's little over-production, I'm right around 27" in my yard on the season.  I don't speak for the region or anyone else, just what I've noted.  So, 27" is roughly half? 

Well, if 100% of a season is 53" (say) and I'm at 27 ...that's 50% of normal.  50% on any test is an F ... this winter Fails to achieve normalized snow variance.  So that is at least approaching a methodic, objective way to assess a pass fail conjecture about the year to date.   

I don't think it is over... re-echoing those sentiments, of course! At least in my all-indicative holier than though yard... we are only a single 5" event from this getting into the 60th percentile, and suddenly ... the year passes with a D- grade.  

I mean ... if people want to create a separate, none mathematical system, essentially tantamount to one based on flopping five year tantrum in a grocery store line because Mother Nature said no to the pretty wrapping candy-bars set strategically at said five year old's line of sight ... there's unfortunately no one size fits all agreeable metric for that.  

By the way... while on the subject of seasonal totals vs what the average neurotic, vaguely functional winter enthusiast wants... I found this site I'd never heard of called "Current Results" ?  I have no idea of its veracity ... but it list Amherst with 36.9" ?   Doesn't that seem low?  I can't find any explanation on that site but I thought that number was peculiar.  Buffemville too for that matter.  41 seems shirked 

Central Massachusetts

Average total snowfall for a year
Days Place Inches Centi­metres
16.6 Amherst 36.9 93.7
23.0 Barre Falls Reservoir Dam 54.7 138.9
14.5 Buffumville Lake 40.9 103.9
23.1 East Brimfield Lake 59.0 149.9
20.3 Lowell 51.9 131.8
20.3 Tully Lake 49.5 125.7
31.7 Worcester 64.1 162.8

I've found that site to be completely inaccurate for many cities/towns in the US. Certainly that is too low for days with snow and the total amount of snow for Lowell.

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I forgot Hingham too near Scooter....they have a pretty pristine record.

Many of the COOP stations you guys stated are pretty good.  I think Bedford, MA (Hanscome Airforce Base) and Middleton, MA are other good ones that are close to us.

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1 minute ago, Greg said:

Many of the COOP stations you guys stated are pretty good.  I think Bedford, MA (Hanscome Airforce Base) and Middleton, MA are other good ones that are close to us.

Bedford was definitely a good one but it is now defunct...hasn't reported snowfall since 2008-2009 winter.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie looks like it may be trying for some overrunning like the GFS next week....GGEM is a bit more amped...almost a little NJ/LI redeveloper that gives a shot of snow.

Light to moderate looks possible for midweek...as others have said, the PAC may become more favorable for actual coastals post 2/27.  

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie looks like it may be trying for some overrunning like the GFS next week....GGEM is a bit more amped...almost a little NJ/LI redeveloper that gives a shot of snow.

My guess is that it will end up being some boring 3-6" overrunning deal. I don't think we are going big this season....nothing to block things up.

Yes, I know Kevin is fine with that and no one else likes them but me.

Got it-

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My guess is that it will end up being some boring 3-6" overrunning deal. I don't think we are going big this season....nothing to block things up.

Yes, I know Kevin is fine that that and no one else likes them but me.

Got it-

I think we have a decent shot at a biggie in the first 10 days of March.  Just a hunch.

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Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

I think we have a decent shot at a biggie in the first 10 days of March.  Just a hunch.

If that PNA actually verifies and the ridge is further east than it has been....at this point, I just need to actually see it to believe it. Everything on paper says that we should see one, but I'm done telling people its coming and looking like an ass. Just have to wait and see.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If that PNA actually verifies and the ridge is further east than it has been....at this point, I just need to actually see it to believe it. Everything on paper says that we should see one, but I'm done telling people its coming and looking like an ass. Just have to wait and see.

Understand 100%

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