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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Sam was a kid growing up in Keene, NH who was a whiz at meteorology from the get go. He was a big snow lover but probably a bigger severe lover. He got his degree and the went to Oklahoma for post grad. I think his name here is OKPowdah. He used to draw snow maps that always seemed to have a “phallic” look to the contours. If you look at that clown map, you can see the darker blue shading also has that look. 

 kind of weird I don't remember the dude . What was his handle ? 

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Sam was a kid growing up in Keene, NH who was a whiz at meteorology from the get go. He was a big snow lover but probably a bigger severe lover. He got his degree and the went to Oklahoma for post grad. I think his name here is OKPowdah. He used to draw snow maps that always seemed to have a “phallic” look to the contours. If you look at that clown map, you can see the darker blue shading also has that look. 

 

20190219_231025.png

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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

What does it tell you that there were a combined 13 posts between the discussion and event threads from the 00z models?

It tells me tonight's event is meh for about 80% of the board, and most with a brain aren't invested in day 8 solution.

Post counts are definitely factored into forecasts and even verification, though, so I totally get your concern.

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4 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Go back to the Mid-Atlantic forum. Don't you have to go track those 6"-8" that LWX had out yesterday for DC instead of coming in here to comment on a D8 fantasy storm that of course is going to change run-to-run being that far out?

He wasn't trolling. Probably a testament to how this will change and not to fall in love with the exotic solutions.

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Tels

PNA spikes but looks to go deeply negative March 1st. That would be the killer IMO

AO strongly positive looks to go neutral days 11 through 15, but one camp keeps it strongly positive 

NAO meanders around neutral to slightly positive 

MJO by far the best look of the bunch. 8 through 3.

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Still thinking the more super synoptic scale rooted favorability for event(s) is more situated into the first week of March.  

Obviously there are other Meteorological events that need to transpire (per model scheduling ...) prior to the 27th... but, those appear impact manageable/forgettable. 

For reasons elaborated upon, yesterday, the 27th event, was a bit incongruous against the background canvas to begin with.  Combining those synoptic philosophies with my own personal observation over how the Euro has an oh-so subtle, at other times more important tendency to spuriously deepen troughs in the OV going beyond the mid ranges.  The overnight correction by the Euro (for me) is as much a factor of that, as it is probably a D8 system mambo in the models.  Hard to separate physics from chaos at this range .. all the above..  That said, there is likely to be some sort of presence in the flow mid/late next week, as there is a lot of ensemble support in both camps for S/W spacing between 100W and 70W in general...   

I'm not as opposed to a narrower flat-wave amplitude in that kind of overall flow construct. It's high speed, and fairly compressed, so open wave is favored.  Such as a NJ Model type ..etc, and in fact, GGEM sort of tries to get that done.  The Euro oper. appears now to be the weaker ensemble member ... It seems it "could" afford some amplitude back - maybe went too far... - and it wouldn't be too egregious to do so with that flow.  I just think a more middling type intensity wave is better supported, all told.   Again, as I stipulated, ... if the flow relaxes some in the S and the heights pop a little more robustly amplified in the west on the heels of the 27th S/W ... this could mature into something more...   I mean, all this is based on the models features being relatively stable - standing caveat emptor.  

After that, the -EPO cold dump into Canada seems to also have legs and it'll be interesting to see what starts to emerge in the runs as we get through the next 7 days...  I wonder if there's something big or a series of events between the 27th through circa 10th of March

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1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Go back to the Mid-Atlantic forum. Don't you have to go track those 6"-8" that LWX had out yesterday for DC instead of coming in here to comment on a D8 fantasy storm that of course is going to change run-to-run being that far out?

Easier to say STFU Yoda lol

where in the hell has EEK been?

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Begrudgingly ... I admit also that the MJO in the more dependable channels is modestly/moderately strengthened in the 8-1-2 western hemmie... Which does fall pretty squarely in timing upon this spike in the PNA.  Combining the -EPO ... these are not bad converging cold and stormy indicators.   

For once this season, the MJO may be in more of a constructive interference passage through space and time ...   

The AO is out of phase though... but, with the EPO being negative, we may not be as reliant (or need be...) on the former.  

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58 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Begrudgingly ... I admit also that the MJO in the more dependable channels is modestly/moderately strengthened in the 8-1-2 western hemmie... Which does fall pretty squarely in timing upon this spike in the PNA.  Combining the -EPO ... these are not bad converging cold and stormy indicators.   

For once this season, the MJO may be in more of a constructive interference passage through space and time ...   

The AO is out of phase though... but, with the EPO being negative, we may not be as reliant (or need be...) on the former.  

With the PNA forecasted to plummet per GEFS around March 1st, wouldn't the cold air dump from the -epo just fall to the west again, repeating the garbage pattern we are in?

For reference.

1509125238_pna.sprd2(7).thumb.gif.0d0a1e4e72dd52f2cb82b1bd1317e828.gif

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28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

With the PNA forecasted to plummet per GEFS around March 1st, wouldn't the cold air dump from the -epo just fall to the west again, repeating the garbage pattern we are in?

For reference.

 

It could ... 

The CDC PNA is indicating a different tendency out there toward week 2, though, and... the fact that those members are 'mop ended' can also be an indication for lowering confidence in that time range ... Have to see where the cluster occurs...  

For the record, I wouldn't think any "favorable" regime is going to last a long time ... like all of March, but by the time we get into next month, usually the winter paradigms are collapsing anyway.   Plus there's proverbial "bowling" season too...  These can skew what's going on -

 

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